2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

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One other reflection of the PPC effect on the Mennonite community: in the far N of Alberta, the Mennonite settlement of La Crete has traditionally seen CPC shares at a North Korean level that's hyperactive even by rural Alberta standards.  *This* time, the La Crete polls went 618 CPC to 425 PPC (and 59 for "others", which also seems higher than the norm, even with Maverick accounted for).

ETA:  the La Crete advance went 792 CPC, 320 PPC, 62 "others".

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Here's the seats where Advance/Special differed from e-day in any way...

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame:  Advance & Special Lib (final CPC)

Halifax: e-day NDP (final Lib)

South Shore-St Margarets:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Sydney-Victoria:  Advance & Special CPC (final Lib)

Fredericton:  Advance & Special CPC (final Lib)

Miramichi-Grand Lake:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Beauport-Limoilou:  Advance CPC, Special Lib, Advance + Special BQ (final BQ)

(Berthier-Maskinonge:  REB lost e-day by only 62 votes)

Brome Missisquoi:  e-day BQ (final Lib)

Chateaugay-Lacolle: Advance BQ (Advance + Special BQ) (final Lib)

Hochelaga:  Advance BQ (final Lib)

(Laurier-Sainte-Marie:  Guilbeault ahead of NDP by only 66 votes on e-day)

Longueuil-Charles Lemoyne:  Advance BQ (final Lib)

Longueuil-Saint Hubert:  e-day Lib (final BQ)

Riviere-des-Mille-Iles:  Special Lib (final BQ)

Shefford:  Special Lib (final BQ)

Therese-De Blainville:  Special Lib (final BQ)

Trois-Rivieres:  Special Lib, e-day CPC (final BQ--who were 3rd on e-day)

Brampton East:  Special CPC (final Lib--but some kind of significant tab error, w/oversized NDP/PPC and undersized Lib in the Special tally)

(Carleton:  Skippy only won the Group 2 Special by 10 votes)

Davenport:  Advance/Special NDP (final Lib)

Flamborough-Glanbrook:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Hastings-Lennox and Addington:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Kanata-Carleton:  Advance CPC (final Lib)

King-Vaughan:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Kitchener-Conestoga:  Advance CPC (final Lib)

Kitchener South-Hespeler:  Advance CPC (by 2 votes!) (final Lib)

Niagara Falls:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Northumberland-Peterborough South:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Parkdale-High Park:  Special NDP (final Lib)

Perth-Wellington:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Peterborough-Kawartha:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Sault Ste Marie:  e-day CPC (final Lib)

Spadina-Fort York:  e-day NDP (duh) (final Lib)

Windsor-Tecumseh:  e-day NDP (final Lib)

Charleswood-St James-Assiniboia-Headingley:  Special Lib (final CPC)

(Portage-Lisgar:  Group 2 Special PPC)

Regina-Lewvan:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Saskatoon-University:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Saskatoon West:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Edmonton Centre:  Advance CPC (final Lib)

Edmonton Griesbach:  Advance CPC (final NDP)

Cloverdale-Langley City:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC) (final Lib)

Kootenay-Columbia:  Special NDP (final CPC)

Nanaimo-Ladysmith:  Advance CPC, Special Green (Advance + Special CPC) (final NDP--3rd in Advance + Special)

North Island-Powell River:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC) (final NDP)

Richmond Centre:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC)  (final Lib)

Skeena-Bulkley Valley:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC)  (final NDP)

South Surrey-White Rock:  Special Lib (final CPC)

Vancouver Granville:  e-day NDP (final Lib)

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country:  Advance CPC (Advance + Special CPC) (final Lib)

Nunavut:  Advance Lib (final NDP)

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Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

I checked; it's only 64 votes altogether (the winning Liberal got 20 votes, or 31%).  In its rogueishness, it also reminds me of certain mobile or "institutional" polls (the latter of which seem to have been more prevalent in the past: psychiatric hospitals where fringe candidates overperformed at the expense of mainstreamers and the like)

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Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.

I checked; it's only 64 votes altogether (the winning Liberal got 20 votes, or 31%).  In its rogueishness, it also reminds me of certain mobile or "institutional" polls (the latter of which seem to have been more prevalent in the past: psychiatric hospitals where fringe candidates overperformed at the expense of mainstreamers and the like)

I wonder if that's the case of people just voting randomly (in psychiatric hospitals)?

Could be; a matter of eeny meeny miny mo or pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey randomness among those technically incompetent to make an informed decision upon exercising their franchise.  (And likewise with mayoral races, where in Toronto at least, assisted housing, institutional, and shelter polls have been *very* prone to plumping things on behalf of the fringe.)

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The Election Atlas polling maps have been up for a week or so, in case anyone wants a look.

I've been going through things in Ontario slowly and alphabetically--one thing I'm wondering about re PPC's overperformance in AMK's Kap-Hearst "11 corridor" is whether some kind of observant Catholic element within the Franco-Ontarian electorate was mobilized.  And what's interesting is how PPC actually *underperformed* in the most traditionally right/populist-leaning parts (Echo Bay et al in SSM's outskirts).

Also, in Aurora-OR-RH, while the Chinese shift to the Libs has been noted, what I also noticed was a counter-swing *to* the Cons in Aurora, which suggests that O'Toole did have success (however limited) in repatriating some of the more traditionally "moderate Tory" Ontario demos that have strayed in the Liberal direction in recent elections.

Plus, the helter-skelter random-fire poll amalgamations in certain constituencies have rendered the polling map an incoherent, disconnective mess (how did they choose what to amalgamate?  pulling numbers from a hat?).  And in many cases, there's been a *huge* bump in the NDP vote in the Group 1 Special Voting Rules (what would that be?  Incarcerated electors?)

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Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

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Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

True enough.  Unlike in provinces further West, local candidates still carry a lot of weight in Atlantic Canada.  As per comment on Nova Scotia that is especially true there.

But it even goes for the West--for instance, once again as goes the NDP, they likely wouldn't have done as well in Penticton had Richard Cannings not had his foot in the door as the incumbent; and there was certainly an "Avi Lewis bump" (with an assist from generic Green collapse) in the places where he ran...

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Let's keep in mind that a *lot* of these results are due to "local conditions"--specific riding candidacies and campaigns, et al--so it's hazardous to make overly generic readings.  (Like, in N&L, the absence of Jack Harris hurt the NDP in St. John's relative to 2019--and in Long Range Mountains, the NDP might have backhandedly benefited from a CPC parachute in '19, while the Cons offered a more serious candidate/campaign in '21 and made it into more of a perceived "strategic" red vs blue race.)

True enough.  Unlike in provinces further West, local candidates still carry a lot of weight in Atlantic Canada.  As per comment on Nova Scotia that is especially true there.

But it even goes for the West--for instance, once again as goes the NDP, they likely wouldn't have done as well in Penticton had Richard Cannings not had his foot in the door as the incumbent; and there was certainly an "Avi Lewis bump" (with an assist from generic Green collapse) in the places where he ran...

Local candidates do have impact in all places, just more so there.  Other is Territories which is mostly based on local candidate.  I think in rural areas local candidate plays bigger role than urban.  Its why Ruth Ellen Brousseau almost won in an area that went solidly CAQ provincially.

But even in Nova Scotia, things are complicated--like as goes Barrington/Clark's Harbour, it's more that the Bernadette Jordan backlash compounded a tendency that had already been gestating in recent elections.  (And in fact, there *is* a under-the-radar hardcore conservative element--the CHP overperformed there in '06 (when they even won a poll!) and '08)

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And interesting side note, Doug Ford PCs flipped Oshawa from NDP in 2022 (part of municipality in Durham)

Because of the narrowness of Jennifer French's victories vs the Ford Tories and the N Oshawa parts which lie within Durham riding (where the NDP won no polls in *2018*, never mind 2022), I'm not sure there's much "interesting" here--most pundits would agree that French hanging on at all in '22 was the greater surprise.

Muskoka District

Conservatives 48% (+8)
Liberals          22% (-9)
NDP               17% (+6)
PPC                7% (+7)
Greens           6% (-10)

It seems like in many touristy areas, O'Toole's more moderate style of conservatism helped.  Tories won all six municipalities this time while in 2019 Bracebridge was only that went Liberal.  Wahta Mohawk Territory had too few votes for Elections Canada to publish for confidentiality reasons so no idea how it voted but my guess is NDP but who knows.

What also helped was the sinking-in fact of *Scott Aitchison's* more moderate style of conservatism--and even more importantly, the fact that the Liberals ran a parachute from the GTA (as opposed to, in '19, the candidate who came close to upsetting Tony Clement in '15--and judging from the *provincial* Liberal debacle within the riding, the PSM Liberals at large seem in disarray).

PPC topped 20% in Leamington and it seems like a really economically depressed area thus ripe for populism

Actually, when it comes to Leamington, populism doesn't explain PPC strength so much as the Malahide-esque evangelical base (especially in the rural Mersea parts)

Combined right is 79% in Oil Springs which was highest in Ontario and based on name no surprise.

The blue strength in Oil Springs is ancestral; the historical petro-economy is incidental to said strength, unless one wants to project Simpsons Texas Guy inclinations upon *everyplace* that has black stuff oozing from the ground.

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Muskoka was much more interesting in the provincial election due to the Green strength there.

Though "boring-interesting", in the way things reduced out of strategic necessity to strict binaries tend to be.  (Wonder how the Greens would have done were there a Liberal candidate--perhaps still 2nd place, though a more "relaxed" kind of 2nd)

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There were probably more Conservative 2019-NDP 2021 voters although this group was overwhelmingly in Alberta.  Probably people who voted Conservative by habit, but unpopularity of UCP and fact now supporting NDP provincially pushed them over to NDP federally.

Another unspoken factor (besides PPC and other dissident-right forces like Maverick) behind the CPC fall in Alberta: Erin O'Toole being their first non-Western leader (i.e. a token "not one of us" factor)

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La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory

What's this "going Independent" business?  There wasn't an poll-winning Independent candidate...

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La Vallee de l'Or

BQ                 43% (+2)
Liberals          27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
NDP               5% (-3)
PPC                4% (+3)
Greens           2% (-1)

Melartic, Rivere-Heva went Independent, Val d'Or went BQ

Nord du Quebec, see Regions but for municipalities Chibougamau, Chapais, Lebel sur Quevillon, Matagami went  independent gain from BQ.  NDP won the predominately aboriginal communities in southern half, but Liberals took all those in Northern half otherwise ones under Cree territory

What's this "going Independent" business?  There wasn't an poll-winning Independent candidate...

It said other so not sure how that happened, could be a mistake on ridingbuilder.ca as overall numbers don't suggest it either.

I suspect the mistake of which you speak.  There was no indy candidate in Abitibi-BJ-N-E.  (And beyond the Bloc-Lib-CPC-NDP big four, the biggest share was sub-4% for PPC.)

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Probably a mistake to be lumping the BQ with the left at this point.

Yet for all their present CAQ-regionalist thrust, they don't make for a terribly easy lump with the right, either.  There's still a "Le Bon Jack NPD" undercurrent to their "reach" that's evident in, say, the Con-Bloc divide within the Quebec City environs...

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That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

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That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

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That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

Well, you're right re the above reference to "blue-collar Anglos"--but Westmount was a relatively limited part of the riding, and Jack Layton certainly wasn't devoid of champagne-socialist appeal.  Or one would assume that if Westmount were more like Outremont, the NDP would have done better there.  (Likewise re the surprise NDP pickup of NDG-Lachine in '11: it was "Franco" Lachine--usually an island of relative Bloc-friendliness--that tipped the riding; "Anglo" NDG remained Liberal;  However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

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However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

Even Jill Andrews lost Forest Hill. 

And in the end, she didn't need Forest Hill--which is as "marginalizable" within its riding as "wealthy Westmount" is within *its* riding.  (Let's not forget: just because a riding has "Westmount" in its name doesn't mean it's *all* like the wealthy parts of Westmount.)

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Yes, I was alluding to places like Sault Ste. Marie, Vancouver Island, Oshawa, the Niagara region, even working-class Winnipeg (tho there were lots of other factors working against the NDP in Manitoba that year) - all places where you might have generically expected the NDP to do very well while surging into second across the country but where their performance proved mediocre in the end.

Okay, blue-collar Anglos *outside* of QC.  But one other factor *there* was that while 2011 marked peak Layton, it *also* marked peak Harper--and all this talk about blue-collar Anglos shifting rightward isn't new; heck, it was evident as far back as the Reform surge in '93.  Indeed, the only place where the Orange Crush really seat-winningly succeeded outside of QC was inner Toronto--they also gained a couple of Surrey seats (which fell to the Libs the following election) and one on Vancouver Island following Keith Martin's retirement, but otherwise they treaded water in the ROC, or were undercut by the peak-Harper factor.  (Conversely, it was only in QC where the undercutting went the *other* way; that is, the NDP snatching seats from the Cons.  But the foundation for Con support in QC was "different".)