August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[adma]

Not just the traditional blue collar vote, increasing Liberal support in the "urban progressive" constituency has hurt the NDP as well.

Yeah, it really threw me for a loop that the NDP lost 5-10% in ridings like University-Rosedale, Parkdale-High Park, and Ottawa Centre last year. It's not like voters there needed to vote Liberal to keep the Tories from winning those seats.

I don't think it should be *that* surprising--remember that until Jagmeet proved to be not-half-bad on the stump, the party practically looked set to be Audreyed.  To the point where their Toronto strategy was basically reduced to a "Andrew Cash Davenport toehold" strategy. 

Thus, such underperformance was more a vestigial reflection of the NDP's depleted infrastructure going into the election.  Those ridings where they were a distant 2nd at 20%--they were poised to be an even more distant 2nd, or 3rd, or even 4th, at the moment the writ was dropped.  Essentially, they went from being Audreyed to being somewhere between Alexa'd and early-Jacked.

[adma]

And I can't really see Jagmeet pulling off the ca. 2014 "screw those latte-sipping elites I'm focusing on the working class of SW Ontario" type campaign.  

Maybe not, but don't entirely rule out some counterintuitive "good faith" support a la Jack Layton, even in an era when blue-collar right-populism seems more impermeable than ever.  But a big imponderable there (and plugging back into this thread's subject matter) would be the Jagmeet vs Erin question--especially presuming that O'Toole's less stigmatized (particularly for being Upper Canadian rather than Western) than Scheer.

Though following from that in the *other* direction (and echoing trends in the US, UK and elsewhere) would be the potential for Conservative inroads in Northern Ontario--and there were even some signals last year (aside from the Kenora takeback) that a future Bishop Aucklanding of the North shouldn't be ruled out (including unexpectedly pipping ahead of the Libs for 2nd in the two remaining NDP-held seats)