When Do Democrats Get the House Back?

[adma]

And remember, too: it also depends upon broad party strategizing, i.e. if the Dems are operating on a passive "electoral gravity" model, as opposed to a more ambitious Howard Dean-esque "50 State Strategy" model (which might have a touch of "gerrymander?  what's that?" about it), recovering the House will come later rather than sooner.

[adma]

2018 perhaps, why is everyone saying 2022? That seems too far away!

Current district lines strongly favor the GOP and won't change until after the 2020 Census.

People were saying the same thing in 2002 and 2004, and for good reason, and then 2006 happened. 

That's exactly what I mean by "gerrymander, schmerrymander".  And remember that 2004 was compounded by the mini-me gerrymanders in GA and TX...

[adma]

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough. 

Then again, for all we know, we could be looking at Obama 2008-Romney 2012-Clinton 2016-type-districts--well, under the overzealous hypothesis that HRC will be the Dem nominee in 2016.  Or at least someone with more of a "HRC 2008" base (i.e. more Blue Dog populist appeal than Obama)