Now have enough data points in hand to predict the 2017 outcome.
Firstly, a very weird election. Really weird. Seems voters disengaged.
1. Worst lawn sign coverage that I have ever seen across Metro Vancouver inc. muni/prov/fed. Ever.
2. 2 days ago, Global BCTV news was at UBC asking students whether they knew an election was actually going on. Most stated no. Bizarre. And those that did know that an election was going on were unable to name any of the BC political party leaders.
3. Tonight, Bill Tieleman, former BC NDP strategist and long-time BC NDP insider, stated that he has never seen a BC election whereby voters are as disengaged in 2017 in his entire lifetime.
The BC NDP has several ridings in interior BC that are quite vulnerable for a myriad of reasons:
1. Skeena
2. Stikine;
3. Columbia River-Revelstoke
BC Lib leader has been in these ridings. NDP leader has been absent. As matter of fact, totally stunning that BC NDP leader has just made couple of short sojourns into BC interior in entire campaign - Cariboo and Kamloops. Nothing seen like this in many decades. Akin to throwing BC NDP interior candidates under bus.
BC NDP leader has mostly been in Metro Van swing ridings. Fair enough.
But last night BC Lib leader was in BC NDP held swing riding of Vancouver-Fairview within inner Van City. Forget about BC Lib swing riding of Vancouver-Fraserview.
In the dying days of the 2017 campaign, today, BC Lib leader on Van Isle... as well as tomorrow. BC NDP holds most of ridings on Van Isle. Tomorrow night, BC NDP leader holding townhall in Nanaimo - NDP has held this seat since 1972 (aside from 2001 debacle).
Remember, that as of tomorrow, Friday, 2013, BC Lib internal CATI daily riding tracking polls had already predicted "48 seats in the bag". BC Libs actually won 49 seats several days later on Tuesday e-day. Moreover, BC Lib provincial CATI daily tracking poll nailed the final BC voting result. As an aside, I have posted details of same early on in the BC Election thread.
Furthermore, one week before 2013 e-day, I had enough data points to confirm a BC Lib win of 43/85 seats. Just not enough data to confirm its extent (read: separate wheat from chaff).
More data points to corroborate my 2017 prediction outcome... but will not prolong my post.
2017 popular vote share:
BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%
... give or take a couple of points.
2017 seat share:
BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5
OK. I have stuck my neck out here. Anyone else? Or will I just hear crickets?
PS. Election 2013 was akin to BC election 1983 in terms of campaign dynamics. Election 2017 is very much akin to election 1969 in similar terms IMHO.
PPS. Just read Van Sun's Vaughn Palmer (known as the dean of the BC Legislature) column. Corroborates some, if not much, of my previous post:
http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-campaign-stops-for-b-c-party-leaders-show-where-they-think-they-can-winPPPS. BC media has also reported that the BC Libs have 5 x as many volunteers in 2017 compared to 2013. Moreover, BC media also reports that the BC Libs have more folk attending their 2017 campaign events compared to the BC NDP.
