Canadian federal election - 2015

[Lotuslander]

My list of potential NDP replacements for Jenny Kwan's Vancouver-Mount Pleasant provincial seat.

I'm not sure if the rule requiring a woman to run to replace an outgoing NDP MLA is still in place or, if it is, if it applies to byelections.  Like the rule or dislike it, there is no question it has achieved its goal.  The B.C NDP caucus has gone from 7 of 33 NDP MLAs being women in 2005 to 14 of 34 MLAs in 2013.

If men are allowed to run (and potential women candidates as well)
1.Raymond Louie, City Councillor.  Would likely clear the field.

2.Meena Wong, COPE Mayoral nominee in 2014.  Federal NDP nominee in Vancouver South in 2011

3.George Chow, former City Councillor 2005-2011, Provincial NDP nominee in Vancouver-Langara in 2013 and NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver-Fraserview in 2013.

4.Ellen Woodsworth, former COPE City Councillor

5.Niki Sharma, 2014 Vision Vancouver nominee for City Council.

6.Trevor Loke, Former Parks Commissioner 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 1,500 votes

7.Aaron Jasper, Former Parks Commissioner and Board Chair 2008?-2014

8.Sarah Blyth, Former Parks Commissioner, 2008-2011, 2015 Candidate for Federal NDP nomination in Vancouver-Quadra.

9.Ken Clement, Former School Trustee, 2008?-2014, defeated for reelection by 250 votes

10.Gwen Giesbrecht, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East, 2011 COPE nominee for School Board and 2014 nominee for School Board

11.Scott McLean, 2015 NDP candidate for nomination in Vancouver East

My money is on Sharon Gregson, which you omitted. Gregson was going to run in the fed V-East NDP nomination contest until Elmore stepped in.

[Lotuslander]

Recent polling has the federal Liberals leading in British Columbia, which seems historically abnormal. What's going on there? Dislike of both Harper and Mulcair?

OTOH, the most recent Abacus Data opinion poll from Thursday has these BC numbers (with change from 2011):

Con: 45% (-0.5%)
Lib: 23% (+10%)
NDP: 20% (-13%)
Green: 11% (+3%)

[Lotuslander]

He's not gonna form a coalition with anyone. His voters would strongly prefer he support Mulcair.

And Mulcair, as of today, states that he won`t form a coalition with anyone either:

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http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/05/30/mulcair-tourne-le-dos-a-trudeau

[Lotuslander]

In a poll conducted by CROP just last month, support for QC sovereignty stood at 42%. As a matter of fact, 42% is around the same level of support in opinion polls conducted just a month prior to the 1995 referendum.

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Since the BQ averaged 16.5% in QC in the latest 308 projection, 3 times more support equates to ~50%.

"Potentially" speaking... "Houston... we have a problem".

[Lotuslander]

...and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman.

One must first understand Moore's redistributed riding of Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam and its demographics before one can come to a conclusion of the election-day outcome:

1. Port Moody portion - Heritage Mountain, which is high-end, single-family residential that goes wayyy up the mountain;

2. Coquitlam - Westwood Plateau, which is also high-end, single-family residential and also goes wayyyy up the mountain;

3. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain, which is also mostly high-end, single-family residential and massive amount of development continuing to occur there as I post;

4. Port Coquitlam - Citadel Heights, which is also higher-end, single-family residential at its southern end;

5. Coquitlam Town Centre - new condo towers continue to sprout up;

6. Everything in-between  - old "brownfield" sites comprising older houses on larger acreages continue to be redeveloped into new townhouse/single-family residential developments;

IOW, residential growth/population growth continues to favour the CPC in the riding. A major CPC collapse would need to occur, during the height of the campaign, in order for the CPC to lose the seat IMHO.

[Lotuslander]

The CPC has already collapsed in BC according to a number polls. My model already shows Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam going NDP with current poll numbers. Admittedly, I think the CPC will recover somewhat in the province, but the NDP will keep growing as it displaces the Liberals as the anti-Harper option, so I'd say it's a tossup at this point.

Just a note of caution, especially regarding BC. We are now ~4 months out from election day. I only need to harken back to the 2013 BC provincial election (with just over 2 weeks to election day) and this conclusion:

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http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/04/29/NDP-22-Point-Lead/

And then look what actually happened 2 weeks later.