Philly- You're annoyed with us, please don't bitch

[TeePee4Prez]

As you may know, John Kerry won every Philadelphia Ward, but some of the white wards that went for Hillary, were very close in 2004.  I'm calling for 5 GOP flips:

McCain Pickups:

26th- McCain will win 56% and will be his best Philly ward.  Kerry only won 52% and I figured a sizable "black penalty" here.

64th-  McCain will win 54%.  Kerry won with the same.  Figured about a 8-10% "penalty" here.

66th-  Funny George Wallace won this Ward in 1968.  (States please don't orgasm on your screen).  So did John Kerry with a decent margin, but I think it was in the mid 50s.  McCain 52%, some "penalty".

63rd-  Fox Chase does not look like friendly Obama territory AT ALL.  Mayfair (55/64) at least has some lawn signs.  Was pretty bad for Kerry too, but more liberal northern divisions gave the Ward to Kerry.  McCain wins narrowly, with steeper penalty in Fox Chase, which most of their divisions voted for Bush in 2004.

55th-  Southern parts of the Ward are transitioning, but I can see McCain narrowly prevail.  Tossup/Tilt GOP


Watch List:

45th-  Blue collar "River Ward" that's solidly, but not overly Democratic.  Doesn't mean the GOP can't win here and Republican State Rep. John Taylor rarely gets challenged.  I do think a yuppie influx will dilute the older Reagan Democrats giving a decent Obama victory in the low-mid 50s.  upset possible.

41st/65th-  Similar dynamics to 45th, but race a smidge less of an issue and a lot of union members.  Obama mid 50s, but don't count them out though.

39th-  Kerry got 71% here, BUT it's a South Philly Ward and I can tell you them whites are more adverse to a black candidate than a NE white.  Then again there are some trendy, yuppie areas.  I'm calling a steep "penalty" possibly holding Obama to as low as the upper 50s, but I'm gonna call low 60s.   

57th-  Northeast Philly Ward with some racist hints, but not as much as some of the other's I've mentioned plus there are a lot of apartment complexes.  Obama should win comfortably, but there will be a slight penalty. 

56th/58th-  Some Reagan Dems, some Republicans, younger than other NE Wards.  Penalty will be minimal, if at all.

[TeePee4Prez]

...

George Wallace didn't win the 66th. He did well.

The 65th (my ward) will be close but we have a good amount of blacks so I'll give it to Obama. Everything else looks pretty spot on (though I think you actually overestimate McCain in the 26th).

I forgot the 26th extends pretty far west.  The part I frequent a lot seems like McCain country.  NO Obama signs are present there and some people foam when talking about him.

I thought Wallace won the 66th.  Must have misread the article.