Pennsylvania

[TeePee4Prez]

What about the fact that the Democratic edge in registrations in Pennsylvania over Republicans is up by more than 500,000 from 2006 to 2008? Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 600,000 the day that Santorum lost by almost 20 points, and now it's up by 1.1 million.

We know that registration rough numbers often are deceiving, but does anyone want to argue that this number is meaningless because more than a half-million of those people are Hillary voters who are now going to vote for McCain--on top of all the Hillary-McCain voters who were registered Dems prior to 2006. (I'm sure there's some bad assumptions there, but you take the point. This number is a bad sign for Republicans, the only debate is how much of a bad sign it is.)

McCain either needs to cut pretty deeply with down market whites, or carriage trade seculars (RINO's now Dems since the Democrat primary has become meaningful now in Montco and envirions, or RINO's, or cafeteria RINO's), or a combo of the two, or it is curtains in PA. I keep saying that, but I can't get anyone yet, to say, you know, that is very perspicacious of you! 

I want to see some polling.  The Palin choice could play very well in PA, especially with "down market whites."  Conversely, it might not help enough.

Biden definitely outdoes Palin in PA though moreso in the East. 

I do this economics and the War will outdo the black-white issue in the end, but not entirely.

[TeePee4Prez]

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Again, people make the mistake of thinking that Philly alone = PA win. You have to take Philly by a massive margin AND Western PA by a decent amount.

I predict we're looking at a record turnout and record margin of victory in Philadelphia. That will be enough when you consider that native son Biden will help the ticket fare at least as well in western PA as Kerry/Edwards four years ago.

Note to everyone who still uses this argument - Obama will seriously struggle in areas of the city. He will not make up for his losses by boosting black turnout. As noted, black turnout was basically at its peak in 2004 anyway and registrations probably haven't increased by enough to make up for it either.

Again, I don't think Obama's struggles will be as bad as you think.  Yes, he is part black and it kinda hurts.  Not entirely.  I think you're overestimating the racial strife in the Northeast which is nowhere near what it was in the 1980s or 1990s for that matter.