Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[TeePee4Prez]

Being from the area this article refers to I can say this.  Yeah, a lot of older Democrats won't vote for Obama based on race.  However, I don't think it'll be as bad as people think because well... McCain's policies just plain suck plus the fact that a black candidate, Michael Nutter, actually beat a Northeast Philly white Republican by a margin greater than John Kerry beat George Bush even here.  I'm thinking Obama won't pull Kerry's numbers here, especially amongst the older voters, but there are some younger voters going for Obama even though they voted for Bush in 2004.  Unfortunately for the Dems, a lot of people here are old and yes a bit racist, but I still think McCain will pull off the 66th Ward as described in the article and definitely the 55th and 64th as well, but it won't be a landslide.  Kerry won all Philly wards.

[TeePee4Prez]

I would use some quotes here, but I think I'll make some general comments. 

It's clear Obama will lose about 3 Wards in NE Philly- 55th, 64th, and 66th which he will have to make up for elsewhere along with the possibility of other Wards that were so heavily Democratic for Kerry being a lot closer this time including my own 56th along with a few others.  If Obama for some miracle pulls off a narrow win in the 55th or 66th, I'd be happy.  64th is definitely a lost cause and I was actually surprised it went for Kerry.  .  If I were running for office here, you bet your ass I'd have supported Hillary in the primary.  Now some are saying PA polls are still going Obama.  I'm not calling uncle on thoseas much as Phil is.  Here's why..  For one, younger people in other parts of Philadelphia and the suburbs barring populist lower Bucks are much more enthusiastic about Obama.  It looks like in some breakdowns, some of the ultrared parts of PA, the "T", won't be as bright red this time around.  Obama has definitely energized some younger bases in other parts of the state which I think will narrowly carry him here.  The Philadelphia area has a lot of universities and it seems more graduates are staying put recently. 

[TeePee4Prez]

I would use some quotes here, but I think I'll make some general comments. 

It's clear Obama will lose about 3 Wards in NE Philly- 55th, 64th, and 66th which he will have to make up for elsewhere along with the possibility of other Wards that were so heavily Democratic for Kerry being a lot closer this time including my own 56th along with a few others.

He's going to lose the 57th and very possibly the 65th (maybe not though since we do have a significant black population in the lower parts of the ward now). The 58th will be close.

 

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Ha. Yeah, exactly, a miracle is needed.

 

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And I can totally respect that argument but the problem is that they can't match the turnout of older voters in areas in the NE and Lower Bucks. If Obama loses the three wards that you mentioned, it's already very difficult for him to recover. I think he's going to lose more and run too close to McCain in others. Please remember that these are wards that Kerry won fairly easily.

Other wards to think about especially concerning the race/religion issues:

The 41st and 45th. How about dipping down into South Philly, too? Bush and Kerry were very close in the 26th. I believe it was the closest ward in the city in 2004! We're expecting to win there, too.

I forgot about the 26th, but here's the thing- There are a lot of blacks in that Ward and the whites there are already pretty Republican.  I call tossup/tilts R.

The 57th has a lot of apartments and is pretty Democratic.  We're not losing that one, but I agree it will be closer.  Lean D

An interesting one is the 63rd- very liberal northern parts, very conservative southern parts.  Kerry still won though. Lean D

41st and 45th are good to mention as well, BUT the 45th is far more minority than it ever was and now there's an influx of more progressive yuppie type voters.  41st is just too Democratic, but agree it will be closer. 41st- Likely D, 45th- Likely/Strong D

56th, 58th, and 63rd will probably be the least affected by racial issues with regards to voting, but I can see a slight shift.

56th- Likely/Strong D
58th- Likely D

64th- Strong R.  Race is a HUGE factor here and most people are homeowners.
55th- Likely R.  Lower parts of the Ward are changing and could see an upset for Obama,
66th- Lean/Likely R.  Race not as strong of a factor as 64th.  Again like the 57th, a decent number of apartments.

There will definitely be a homeowner/apartment difference here more than you may think.

[TeePee4Prez]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

There are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

[TeePee4Prez]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

The are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

Which Street-Katz.  If Obama only wins Phila as strongly as Street did in 1999, he is doomed statewide.  Even 2003 Street-Katz would be a serious problem.

LOL yeah!

If it's Katz vs. Street 1999 then Obama is getting destroyed across the state and the country. That was a two point race. If it's Katz vs. Street 2004 (58% - 42%) then Obama is also done.

I'm thinking it won't be even close to 2003 Katz-Street.  Obama has consistently polled in the 70s citywide the McCain in the high teens with the rest undecided.  Interestingly that's about what Kerry polled prior to the election.  Look, if it comes down to the economy and War, McCain has problems I don't care how much race i involved. 

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

21.5 for McCain in Phila really pushes it.  I think there will be a Bradley effect of less than 1 point statewide; Phila will be no exception.  If it is that close, this state is undecided.  Pennsylvania could be what Florida was in 2000.

Since I've been here, Biden's been on TV; I'd know who he was from that.

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

From what I've read, the Bradley effect has diminished quite a bit since the 1980s.

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

[TeePee4Prez]

Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

Not to pick on you specifically but if people are admitting that then I have absolutely no idea how they can argue that this state is still very likely to go for Obama. These are areas that went for Kerry with over 60% of the vote. That's never going to be simply cancelled out by increased black turnout and more support among the white progressives of the SE.

Ehh, Mayfair was in the ballpark of 54-55% for Kerry and there were some Bush pockets in 2004.    I don't think the effect is going to be as pronounced as people think.  You are definitely overstating the racial effect in this area, but are clearly understating Biden.  Joe Biden has been known here for years.  Palin is the flavor of the week.