Bush is really lagging out this way. The news is mostly Republican, but Kerry is up by as much as 20, and as little as 10. Kerry will win PA, the same as Gore, but by a larger margin.
You haven't talked to supersoulty have you yet? He's a great, intelligent guy, but he will have you believe Pennsylvania is going to be some right-wing Republican stronghold. What's interesting is Pittsburgh's metro area has trended 22% more Republican since 1990 and Philadelphia has doen liekwise in the Democratic direction. It seems the Dems are losing their sparsely urban strongholds such as anthracite country in NE Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley and around Pittsburgh. A lot of it was the "Reagan Democrat" phenomenon, but I think it's effects are wearing down. On the other hand the GOP had an incredibly effective machine in the 1980s in the Southeastern PA suburbs. Now the socially liberal, economically moderate suburbanites are seeing the GOP as being too far right and their machines have a lot of corruption (see Asher/Fawkes). Ron Reagan Sr. said Montgomery County had one of the 3 best Republican organizations in the country in 1988. Since then it voted for Dem Presidents in 1992-2000 and most of the country is represented by Democrat Joe Hoeffel and will be Allyson Schwartz in the Fall (sorry Phil).
