PA 6/PA 8

[TeePee4Prez]

Reason number 1 why Pat Murphy won't win:

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With about 85% of the district in Bucks County, and another 5-10% in Montco (being conservative)...and only 5% in Philadelphia...no chance.

No offense to the Philadelphia guys...but people in all parts of Bucks take pride in one thing...they're not from Philadelphia.

He was actually born and raised in my old parish, St. Martin of Tours.  From what I heard he is a populist.  Resume is quite impressive though and he's young. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Populist...strike two.

Agreed.  Should Sandy Miller step in?

[TeePee4Prez]

Well, we all know I'm cheering for Lois Murphy in 2006!!!!  Another NARAL/EMILY's List person in Congress is exactly what Pennsylvania needs!  GO LOIS!!  Game on now Phil!  Don't like my signature? 

[TeePee4Prez]

Well, we all know I'm cheering for Lois Murphy in 2006!!!!  Another NARAL/EMILY's List person in Congress is exactly what Pennsylvania needs!  GO LOIS!!  Game on now Phil!  Don't like my signature? 

I'm kind of worried about her because she could win (and the last thing we need is another Schwartz in the House) but it's not likely to happen. I'll admit, she almost pulled off the upset of the year here in PA last year. That was her chance. 2006 won't be that great of a year for turnout (compared to 2004) so she'll go down 53-47.

You said that before about Dan Wofford in 2002.  You laughed at me for picking PA 6 as an upset in November while you picked PA 13.  Who was closer?  I was WAAAAAY closer, almost won!

[TeePee4Prez]

Well, we all know I'm cheering for Lois Murphy in 2006!!!!  Another NARAL/EMILY's List person in Congress is exactly what Pennsylvania needs!  GO LOIS!!  Game on now Phil!  Don't like my signature? 

I'm kind of worried about her because she could win (and the last thing we need is another Schwartz in the House) but it's not likely to happen. I'll admit, she almost pulled off the upset of the year here in PA last year. That was her chance. 2006 won't be that great of a year for turnout (compared to 2004) so she'll go down 53-47.

You said that before about Dan Wofford in 2002.  You laughed at me for picking PA 6 as an upset in November while you picked PA 13.  Who was closer?  I was WAAAAAY closer, almost won!

How could I say something about Dan Wofford in 2002 when I didn't join until June 2004? Plus, even if this argument was brought up in the past, I never remember saying Wofford would lose by that amount. I knew that was going to be a close one. You really need to grow up.

When I was making an argument for Lois Murphy, you were saying she's was not going to be as close as Wofford was.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm liking this Paul Lang kid.  He's pro-choice, pro-stem cell whereas Patrick Murphy is holding his position on those issues.  I heard from an unqualified source Patrick Murphy opposes choice.  As bullmoose88 eluded to, Murphy has little chance.  In PA 8, the ONLY way a Democrat can win is if he/she is pro-choice.

[TeePee4Prez]

Some PA 18 news...

State Senator Logan will not be running for Congress. Murphy is now very likely to win re-election in 2006. If Logan had run, this seat was seen potentially competitive race and maybe even a Dem pickup.


http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05174/527191.stm


...and news from Sherwood's district if the incumbent decides not to run again...

http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/11962987.htm

He should have run!   

[TeePee4Prez]

Hello Im Back, Actually I am not really back I am living in Ocean City, NJ, but however keeping up with local politics by going to www.northeasttimes.com. I just want to say a democrat fro Parkwood located in the Far Northeast of Philadelphia I have to say I am supporting Patrick Murphy all the way he's a St. Anselm School, Alumni (so am I), he's also an Archbishop Ryan High School, Alumni( in June of 2007 I will be also), and lastly he's from Parkwood (the place where I reside). He's just what the democrats need for this seat. I will admit Ginny Schrader was not a good candidate, but Patrick Murphy will blow  out of the woodwork. I'm signing out for awhile however if you want to get in touch with me email me at MFabbi1@hotmail.com which I check daily. See ya Later.

Patrick Murphy sounds good, but to win in Bucks County as a Democrat, the candidate needs to be pro-choice and he's not.  Paul Lang and Robin Weissman (possibility of running) are.  My money is on Robin Weissman because she has a lot of political and fundraising clout.  She will also get an army of EMILY's List volunteers that Patrick Murphy will be lacking.  Granted Patrick Murphy will do well and likely win the NE Philly section of PA 8, but districtwide, he doesn't have a prayer. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Granted Patrick Murphy will do well and likely win the NE Philly section

It certainly helps that he's from the area but  had a very strong showing there last year. I believe he got close to 60%. Against Murphy, it would be a close one. Against Wiesmann, Fitz easily carries the area.

Wiessman is a much stronger candidate than Ginny Schrader.  I think Wiessman would pull even in NE Philly.  Fitz's win there was attributed to the weakness of Schrader as a candidate, not his strength on the issues.  The one thing NE Philadelphians generally do is either listen to their union or church and the rest is character of candidate when going to the polls.  People here do not divulge on issues as much as we do or people in the suburbs or Center City. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Granted Patrick Murphy will do well and likely win the NE Philly section

It certainly helps that he's from the area but  had a very strong showing there last year. I believe he got close to 60%. Against Murphy, it would be a close one. Against Wiesmann, Fitz easily carries the area.

Wiessman is a much stronger candidate than Ginny Schrader.  I think Wiessman would pull even in NE Philly.  Fitz's win there was attributed to the weakness of Schrader as a candidate, not his strength on the issues.  The one thing NE Philadelphians generally do is either listen to their union or church and the rest is character of candidate when going to the polls.  People here do not divulge on issues as much as we do or people in the suburbs or Center City. 

Wiessman is stronger than Schrader but her views would be the end of her in the NE part of the district. They might not divulge on the issues as much as we do but they do have some sense of what's going on. On top of that, the unions tolerate . He won't have trouble in that area.

That's true and I recently talked to a Young Dem Steamfitter about Fitz. Fitz, like the NE Philly State Rep delegation, is union tolerated.  That maybe a problem for us, albeit if Fitz starts voting lockstep with Santorum and Hart, they will give him problems here.  I know Fitz brought in union labor into Bucks County for construction projects no other GOPer would, but he better have a decent AFL-CIO record in Congress for him to stay there.   

[TeePee4Prez]

That's true and I recently talked to a Young Dem Steamfitter about Fitz. Fitz, like the NE Philly State Rep delegation, is union tolerated.  That maybe a problem for us, albeit if Fitz starts voting lockstep with Santorum and Hart, they will give him problems here.  I know Fitz brought in union labor into Bucks County for construction projects no other GOPer would, but he better have a decent AFL-CIO record in Congress for him to stay there.   

I honestly don't see him having many problems with the unions. You have to remember that their main goal will be electing Casey. They won't be concerned about (nor really have the time to be) working against someone like Fitz when they really don't mind him anyway.

Bucks is a EMILY's List type county.  You know they will be pounding the pavement for Robin Wiessman if she got the nomination. 

On another note...  What I am personally concerned with as a Democrat is the fact that given my background I personally or possibly you may be rendered unelectable for certain offices.  It seems the ideal Democratic nominee is a shaw wearing, wealthy, pro-choice liberal Jewish woman and the ideal Republican is some Scotch drinking, wealthy, Country Club WASP male.  I know others have been elected, but it seems to be a political trend I've noticed.   

[TeePee4Prez]

Let it be known due to his opposition to abortion rights and other personal reasons I won't mention on here that I will not support Patrick Murphy for Congress for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.  My support as of right now will go to Paul Lang.

Let it also be known that I will on top of Bob Casey, Brendan Boyle, Allyson Schwartz, and Lois Murphy I will be strongly opposing Mike Fitzpatrick's re-election. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Let it be known due to his opposition to abortion rights and other personal reasons I won't mention on here that I will not support Patrick Murphy for Congress for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.  My support as of right now will go to Paul Lang.

Let it also be known that I will on top of Bob Casey, Brendan Boyle, Allyson Schwartz, and Lois Murphy I will be strongly opposing Mike Fitzpatrick's re-election. 

If Patrick Murphy receives the nomination, would you support him over Fitzpatrick even with a strong pro-choice Independent/Green/Libertarian candidate in the race?

If I lived in PA 8, then I would look into an independent.  I will not vote for Fitzpatrick or Murphy nor will I give one minute or cent to Murphy's campaign.

[TeePee4Prez]

Let it be known due to his opposition to abortion rights and other personal reasons I won't mention on here that I will not support Patrick Murphy for Congress for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.  My support as of right now will go to Paul Lang.

Let it also be known that I will on top of Bob Casey, Brendan Boyle, Allyson Schwartz, and Lois Murphy I will be strongly opposing Mike Fitzpatrick's re-election. 

Things must have gotten really bad personally. You knew about his Pro Life stance before but supported him now you wouldn't even vote for him if he was your nominee (if you lived in PA .

It's not so much personally rather something that happened to someone I know personally and I will not disclose the reason to anyone.

[TeePee4Prez]

According to Morning Call, Ginny Schrader will be a candidate again in PA 8.

Oh geez.  Paul Lang- I will knock on doors for you until I have splinters!

[TeePee4Prez]

I have different predictions on these races. I do not have just one as it is too early and we do not know if Castor is running in 13 or not yet.

A. If Castor runs in 13 Gerlach and Fitzy win with nice margins because the DCCC will focus A LOT more money on keeping 13 as opposed to turning 6 and 8. (It happened to Brown on the GOP side when they had tough races in 6 and 18 and again when they had races in 6, 8 and 15).

B. If Castor does not run in 13, Gerlach and Fitzy win but by smaller margins. Gerlach beat Lois by more than he won by in his first race for the seat. Fitzy is a really nice guy and it comes accross easily. The people of Bucks voted him in several times as commissioner and they will keep doing so. Just because he went from Commissioner to Congress doesnt mean the people dont like him anymore.

I have some agreements with you on these.  However, I doubt Castor is going to run.  Gerlach will lose regardless of whether Castor runs albeit not by much.  Yes I'll admit Fitzpatrick has it if Castor runs, but if Bush continues to tank and Fitz keeps agreeing with him (so far he has), the ride could also be very bumpy to our north as well.  I don't care how "nice" Fitzpatrick is he has been a consistent hard rightie out of line with PA 8 voters.  If the Dems play it right, he should be beat.  Sadly in Bucks county, the Dems always manage to screw it up.

[TeePee4Prez]

I have different predictions on these races. I do not have just one as it is too early and we do not know if Castor is running in 13 or not yet.

A. If Castor runs in 13 Gerlach and Fitzy win with nice margins because the DCCC will focus A LOT more money on keeping 13 as opposed to turning 6 and 8. (It happened to Brown on the GOP side when they had tough races in 6 and 18 and again when they had races in 6, 8 and 15).

B. If Castor does not run in 13, Gerlach and Fitzy win but by smaller margins. Gerlach beat Lois by more than he won by in his first race for the seat. Fitzy is a really nice guy and it comes accross easily. The people of Bucks voted him in several times as commissioner and they will keep doing so. Just because he went from Commissioner to Congress doesnt mean the people dont like him anymore.

I have some agreements with you on these.  However, I doubt Castor is going to run.  Gerlach will lose regardless of whether Castor runs albeit not by much.  Yes I'll admit Fitzpatrick has it if Castor runs, but if Bush continues to tank and Fitz keeps agreeing with him (so far he has), the ride could also be very bumpy to our north as well.  I don't care how "nice" Fitzpatrick is he has been a consistent hard rightie out of line with PA 8 voters.  If the Dems play it right, he should be beat.  Sadly in Bucks county, the Dems always manage to screw it up.

no no no no no no no. gerlach and fitzy win no matter what. everyone says that gerlach almost lost which can be true. but look at it this way: congressman gerlach beat lois murphy by MORE votes than he beat his first opponent by just two years earlier. When Bush was up for reelection, it did not hurt Gerlach (jim got more votes w/ bush on the ticket actually but i do not accredit that to the president), the "Bush/Republican" record was in everyone's faces and it did not hurt the republican congressman at all (again, he got more votes than before). It will not again this time. As for Fitzy... the Bucks district can go Dem but not anytime soon. fitzy is popular and he is well liked. haha if ginny wins your primary you can say goodbye to ever beating congressman fitzpatrick.

I hope we don't nominate Schrader.  You're right, if the Dems somehow screw up and do, we're done.  Given the right candidate and national tides, we have a very good shot. 

[TeePee4Prez]

For Immediate Release               
Contact: Josh Nanberg
August 30, 2005                   
(202)486-6390
www.murphy06.com

PATRICK MURPHY BUILDS TEAM FOR CONGRESSIONAL BID

Campaign Manager, General Consultant Come Aboard

NEW HOPE, PA--August 25, 2005--Patrick Murphy, Democratic Candidate for Pennsylvania's Eighth Congressional District, today announced the addition of two key players to his campaign team.

Josh Nanberg joins as Campaign Manager. Nanberg is a veteran of two presidential campaigns, including working on the Kerry-Edwards campaign as research director in Pennsylvania. He has previously worked on House races in Massachusetts and Utah, Hillary Clinton's senate race in New York, and co-managed the successful campaign of former California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley.  In 2003, Nanberg served as Political Director for the Montgomery County Democratic Committee, overseeing the campaigns of 12 candidates for county-wide "row offices." 

"Josh Nanberg brings a fresh perspective and a proven track record, both locally and nationally," Murphy said. "I'm thrilled to have him as one of the key leaders on my team."

Pete Giangreco also joins the team as a General Consultant.  Giangreco, a partner in The Strategy Group, has worked with candidates including Sen. Barack Obama (IL), Governors Mark Warner (VA) and Mike Easley (NC), and Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. Giangreco also served as Deputy National Field Director for the Clinton-Gore '92 campaign and as a Consultant to the John Edwards for President and Kerry-Edwards campaigns.

"Pete Giangreco is one of the nation's leading political minds," Murphy continued. "He's a winner who chooses his battles wisely, and he's shown, through his work with Senator Obama and Mayor O'Malley, that he is the consultant of choice for the next generation of leaders."

Nanberg and Giangreco join a strong team that already included former Joe Hoeffel finance director David Heck and a strong grass roots network.

Murphy, an Iraq war veteran, former West Point professor, and former  prosecutor, is running to unseat freshman Republican Michael Fitzpatrick. He has already been endorsed by Bucks County Commissioner Sandy Miller and Gen. Robert Kelly, USAF (Retired).

What are Murphy's chances in the primary and general?

Well, I have his primary opponent in my signature on the upper right.  I think Patrick Murphy is a promising candidate, but I am unclear on some of his positions.  It maybe looking like he is the Democratic nominee because Lang and Schrader will likely split the more liberal votes.  I really don't know much about Bucks, but from what people tell me, the ground game is GOP.  However, the suburban GOP to Dem shift starts from the Presidential level and trickles down and a moderate liberal Dem Peter Kostmayer represented the same area in the 1980s so there is definite hope here.  The Dems are more likely to take this seat than the GOP taking PA 13 even with Castor on the ticket.

[TeePee4Prez]

She's not running - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/090905wiessmann.htm


The Dems will have Murphy, Lang, Warren and Schrader. What a sad group.

Mike Fitzpatrick- what a sad candidate you guys picked.  Reason you guys won was Schrader was even sadder.  I wouldn't have minded Joe Conti that much and if you guys nominated him, I would give up on thinking the Dems could pick this seat up.  I think Patrick Murphy or Paul Lang could very well give Fitzpatrick a good scare and possibly win.

[TeePee4Prez]

She's not running - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/090905wiessmann.htm


The Dems will have Murphy, Lang, Warren and Schrader. What a sad group.

Mike Fitzpatrick- what a sad candidate you guys picked.  Reason you guys won was Schrader was even sadder.  I wouldn't have minded Joe Conti that much and if you guys nominated him, I would give up on thinking the Dems could pick this seat up.  I think Patrick Murphy or Paul Lang could very well give Fitzpatrick a good scare and possibly win.

He was a popular Commissioner and is going to win re-election, idiot. How is that sad?

Murphy would get smashed against Fitz. Sure Murphy would do well in the NE but his problems elsewhere would end his campaign in defeat. Lang is another joke. Fitzpatrick isn't getting below 53% in this race.

Whoa, testy testy.  Are we a little scared Phil?  Keep calling these people jokes.  Both Dem nominees went to prestigious military academies, have law degress or about to have one (Lang), and have a very impressive resume for being as young as they are.  Not to mention the fact they are MUCH more in line with PA 8 voters on social issues.  If Murphy or Lang is the nominee, I can rest assure you the GOP will have problems.  Keep thinking PA 8 will be an easy ride.  No really, I would love you to think that Phil.  Schrader is a joke and I wish she would run for a local race and get involved in local politics more.   

[TeePee4Prez]

She's not running - http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/090905wiessmann.htm


The Dems will have Murphy, Lang, Warren and Schrader. What a sad group.

Mike Fitzpatrick- what a sad candidate you guys picked.  Reason you guys won was Schrader was even sadder.  I wouldn't have minded Joe Conti that much and if you guys nominated him, I would give up on thinking the Dems could pick this seat up.  I think Patrick Murphy or Paul Lang could very well give Fitzpatrick a good scare and possibly win.

He was a popular Commissioner and is going to win re-election, idiot. How is that sad?

Murphy would get smashed against Fitz. Sure Murphy would do well in the NE but his problems elsewhere would end his campaign in defeat. Lang is another joke. Fitzpatrick isn't getting below 53% in this race.

Whoa, testy testy.  Are we a little scared Phil?  Keep calling these people jokes.  Both Dem nominees went to prestigious military academies, have law degress or about to have one (Lang), and have a very impressive resume for being as young as they are.  Not to mention the fact they are MUCH more in line with PA 8 voters on social issues.  If Murphy or Lang is the nominee, I can rest assure you the GOP will have problems.  Keep thinking PA 8 will be an easy ride.  No really, I would love you to think that Phil.  Schrader is a joke and I wish she would run for a local race and get involved in local politics more.   

Scared of who...Ginny Schrader? I know PA 8 is staying GOP. PA 6 is a bit of a concern but PA 8 - No.

And I'd love to see you think PA 13 is easy with a popular county DA possibly in the race.

I don't think Bucks Dems are stupid enough to let Schrader win again.  But then again why couldn't they convince her to drop out of the race and give her a cushy position in the party after Fitzpatrick entered?  With Schrader, yeah you guys still hold PA 8.  Lang or Murphy, I wouldn't be so sure along with the fact that you should also mind the national trend against the GOP.  Remember, you said I should ignore that concept in the PA 13 race last year and that Brown was "well known and liked lcoally".  Look what happened!  With Schwartz and Brown, there really were no major differences in campaign or quality of candidate.  With Schrader and Fitz, Fitz clearly was the better candidate barring the issues.

[TeePee4Prez]

With Schrader, yeah you guys still hold PA 8.  Lang or Murphy, I wouldn't be so sure along with the fact that you should also mind the national trend against the GOP.  Remember, you said I should ignore that concept in the PA 13 race last year and that Brown was "well known and liked lcoally".  Look what happened!  With Schwartz and Brown, there really were no major differences in campaign or quality of candidate.  With Schrader and Fitz, Fitz clearly was the better candidate barring the issues.

National trend against the GOP....a year away from the election!

You're a complete idiot if you can't notice the strength Schwartz had in campaigning. The Brown campaign couldn't match it. Schwartz won because of straight Dem voting in a Presidential election year and a good campaign strategy against a totally incompetent Brown team.

I know Schwartz's strength in campaigning over Brown, but Brown did have a quasi-incumbent advantage plus Schwartz carpetbagged.  Oh and thanks for calling me an idiot because you just proved my point- the national trends HELPED Schwartz and you and I both know the difference between Schwartz-Brown was FAR smaller than Schrader-Fitzpatrick.  My point is given a decent Dem candidate in PA 8, you guys are in deep sh!t plain and simple. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Good news for Dems - Scrader is out - http://www.ginnyschrader.com/

YAY!!! She finally realizes that!

[TeePee4Prez]

From an e-mail I received:

Re: PA –8 Fitzpatrick / Murphy Head to Head Results in Bucks County

 

With a changing political landscape that is currently punishing Republicans at all levels, Freshman Republican Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick is vulnerable going into 2006.  Fitzpatrick is below 50% against a virtually unknown opponent – a dangerous sign for an incumbent.

 

·        This is a competitive district where Democrats have a four-point advantage over Republicans on the Generic Ballot (40% Democrat / 36% Republican) – a three-point gain from a year ago.

 

·        A majority (54%) of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Bush – three points higher than last year. 

 

·        Mike Fitzpatrick currently leads Patrick Murphy by only a 46% to 35% margin with 19% still undecided.  Despite the fact that Fitzpatrick has a Total Name ID advantage over Murphy of almost a 4-to-1 margin (88% Fitzpatrick Total Name ID / 23% Murphy) in Bucks County, the incumbent can’t reach 50%.

 

·        One-third (32%) of likely voters in Bucks County gave Mike Fitzpatrick a negative job rating just nine months into his first term – a troubling sign for any incumbent. 

 

·        Nearly two-thirds (61%) of all likely voters in Bucks County believe, “Abortions should be available to women who choose to have them.”  Mike Fitzpatrick opposes a woman’s right to choose even in extreme cases like rape and incest. 

[TeePee4Prez]

An 11 point lead for Fitzpatrick does not discourage me at all at this point.  Considering the minimal name ID for Murphy this early and him doing this well I am quite pleased and think Fitzpatrick is in definite danger.  After the holidays, the primary and 2006 general election cycle will kick into full gear and the rug will be pulled from under Fitzpatrick real fast!  Oh and Phil- remember the ghost of Tom Daschle! BOO!