GOP house gains in 2012?

[TeePee4Prez]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Its going to be difficult to strengthen their people in Pennsylvania much because they won so many seats.  The situation is even worse in Ohio, where Republicans are probably going to have to cut at least one of their new members and maybe even two. 

We could get Holden's and Critz is likely to be eliminated by redistricting.

Be careful with Holden's.  By making that more Republican, you could make PA 6, 11 or 16 more Democratic possibly flipping those seats in a wave.  And yes, the 16th as currently drawn is on my long term radar.  Add too much of Reading or West Chester to that- watch out!  Short term gains could backfire by the end of the decade like they did last time.  Just saying.

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil, you linked article suggests that the Pubbies will not have free reign to gerrymander the sh*t out of PA. Was this procedure in play in 2001?  I mean, the lines are drawn by a committee of 5, with the swing vote supposedly impartial. So just how would the GOP get their fantasy map even on the table to vote upon?

CC:  Muon2

Yeah, the committee is supposed to be impartial. As weird as this may sound, even with the Democratic members and an Independent, the GOP still gets what they want. In fact, this was in place in 2001 and all of the Democratic members of the committee signed off on the plan!

Personally, I wish we had a totally independent body control this to make sure it is fair.

Wow, we agree on something... Or not?  Sure, I'd love for another "Johnnymander".  Last time you guys spread yourselves too thin and had some moves that cost you like the PA-8 excursions into Montco and NE Philly.  I could see the GOP getting overzealous in the Southeast and thinking they can tack on D areas of PA-6 onto PA-7/16/17 and move more liberal Delco areas to PA-1/2 then lose all PA-6/7/16/17 anyways.  Then get cute with PA 8/15 by tacking on more R areas of PA-15 to PA-8 and lose both anyway in a wave.  I could see this funny scenario play out to some extent eventually.  Or just call a truce and have bi-partisan redistricting.  Short run I could see the GOP making out, but like last decade could get bitten hard again.  And remember, the next cycle of 2016-2024 likely means a Dem Governor and possible control.