US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[TeePee4Prez]

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At the time (and even in 2004 as the old-time forumites know), PA-13 was expected to be competitive.

Well, this one map makes more sense for CD-8 giving Fitzpatrick more conservative parts of current CD-13 such as Mayfair and Fox Chase in Philadelphia along with VERY conservative Bryn Athyn and Huntingdon Valley in Montgomery County.  However, the GOP will have virtually NO shot at beating Schwartz.  Even with this "excursion", Pat Murphy could take CD-8 back in a wave year.

PA is a state the GOP could get too cocky then bitten in the ass in later years. 

[TeePee4Prez]

It's five minutes from me. It's a wealthier pocket of the Northeast. The single houses aren't your typical single houses for Northeast Philly. It being next to St. Jerome's has nothing to do with its politics.

Pretty close to me as well, but Torie brought up a point I once thought as well.  I noticed the areas around Catholic churches are some of the most Republican divisions in the city as well.  Look at the areas around St. Matt's, Cecilia's and Christopher's.  They are arguably some of the most Republican in the city.  I think the division that voted 68% for McCain and gave Crazy McDermott 5% (the CP Congressional candidate against 2 pro-choicers Schwartz and Kats) was near St. Cecilia's in Fox Chase.   

[TeePee4Prez]

Im not sure how much the GOP can gain in metro philly

They're maxed out.  I think they'll protect Fitzpatrick as much as possible, give Gerlach an ok seat and sacrifice Meehan, but give him a fighting chance.  That's what I'd do if I were the GOP.  The districts as is I could see all 3 GOP held seats eventually flipping/flipping back.  And talk of putting Dem areas in Pitts' district I'd say go right ahead!  If the GOP wants to get aggressive like that I'd say make a run at Pitts in a more favorable Dem climate!  PA 16 almost went for Obama and is rapidly trending D probably more than any other district in the state.  My prediction is the GOP will attempt to salvage Meehan, but lose not only him but Pitts as well sometime in the 2010s similar to PA 8/13 this past decade!

[TeePee4Prez]

Here's some advice to the Republican's in the Pennsylvania state legislature: don't be greedy!  Your greediness cost you this past decade and you just gained back from the greediness in this wave election.  Shore up your gains and don't try to go after ANY more democrat seats.

I think the GOP will have problems as drawn.  They may have to toss Fitz, Gerlach, or Meehan to shore 2 of them up and throw one under the bus.

[TeePee4Prez]

Me thinks the GOP will be greedy enough to ensure Democratic Congressional seats will cover every square inch east of the Susquehanna River in a reverse wave election.  Hey, it could happen.  The R strength in all districts isn't that strong as PA-5/9.

[TeePee4Prez]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that. 

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Word from an inside source is that I'm staying in PA 13! I never thought I'd see the day when I'd celebrate that but when you consider the most likely alternatives...

Also, none of Northeast Philly will be in PA 8 this time.

Will it just be Bucks?  I also doubt the Montco strip will be around as well.  My guess is they'll take Bryn Athyn which is very conservative if they have to take something from Montco.  I also thought the GOP would try a strip roughly around Pine Road to include Fox Chase in PA 8. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Well, in general, the maps drawn this year, have not been driven by individual egos that much.

...not sure how you can say that. Are you aware of the PA redistricting?

 

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Not sure but I guess it will be out very soon since I got pretty confident word last night about where I'll be and how PA 8 will look.

I had the same thoughts as Torie on this in a conversation with someone in the past.  Yeah, if the GOP wanted to pack the Dems and GOP into 2 strong districts between PA 8 and 13, they'd put NE Philly/Lower Bucks in a district along with some of the more liberal areas of eastern Montco in a seat and the more exurban areas into a safe GOP seat.  Some people outside of here don't know that egos won't let that happen.  I for one love the fact that you have a mildly competitive Dem leaning seat in PA 13 and a swing seat in PA 8.  I still think even with the BRTD map of PA 8, you could have a competitive seat albeit a GOP leaning seat. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that.  

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP.  

This is all good for the GOP at the state level, but similar adjustments to the Congressional map could benefit Dems.

Is John Taylor's district the only McCain district in Philly or DelCo?

Also, Torie, can you post our octopus Pittsburgh map, with the city labels?

John Taylor's district is heavily Democratic, pro-union, and very urban looking albeit has some heavily ethnic white areas such as Port Richmond and Bridesburg which are his base.  He won in 1984 on Reagan's coattails and has established himself quite well despite a GOP Pres candidate not winning there since 1984.  The district (PA-177) has a lot of Polish Catholics that liked Reagan's tough stances on Communism despite being throughly Democratic and unionized.  He also defeated a weak Dem incumbent with alcohol problems that year along with the coattails.  PA 177 voted in the low 60s for Obama IIRC and has a few minority neighborhoods.  Up until recently, Taylor was seen as untouchable.  Similar to Dan Kapanke in Wisconsin- he's personally popular, but if he made a vote like that, he'd be toast.

[TeePee4Prez]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

Yes, but as the article says, the other CD will be Dem, and Schwartz will probably just move there. There need to be 3, not 2, Dem sink CD's in the Philly area, if all the Pubbie incumbents are to be made reasonably safe, and even then it is a close call. So they are just toying with her by excising  heavily Jewish Abbington from her CD and dumping it into the black Fatah CD is all. Kind of spiteful really.

I think Schwartz will be representing Conshohocken, Lower Merion, and possibly King of Prussia when all is said and done to protect Gerlach and Meehan.  Lumping her with Fattah- part of me says bring it on!  All 3 GOP reps in the Philly area will now have tougher races.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm looking at these maps and thinking.. Sure, go after Schwartz.  Thing is, the rest of SEPA Republicans would still be vulnerable in a Dem wave.  Yeah... I've heard about the personal popularity of Fitzpatrick and Meehan blah blah blah.  But people said that about Fitz and Weldon in 2006 (even with his scandal).  I think Weldon would have lose even without the scandal.  Simple fact, the districts are moving D.  In this scenario, Brady's district is weakened considerably on paper, but anyone who knows local politics can figure with NE Philly firmly in his district, he'll have no problems and gets even more protection in the primaries with less likelihood of an African American or Hispanic challenger.  And I've said it before- PA 16 (or 18 in the article) has rapidly changing Dem areas.  Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

I meant he's a RW whackjob in a now marginal GOP district.

[TeePee4Prez]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

Try Lancaster County for numerous sexual innuendos for town names.

[TeePee4Prez]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

Putting the entire 58th in CD 8 is an enigma.  On one hand, Obama didn't do as hot as I thought he would there.  On the other, do you really see the liberal Jewish voters giving Fitzpatrick another term?  If the grab was solely the conservative area around St. Chris' then I'd say it's a smart move for the GOP.

[TeePee4Prez]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

That's a very good CD 1 / CD 2 split; Broad Street is as natural a line as any.  I was working on my own whole-counties PA plan (which is unsurprisingly more Dem-friendly than yours) but apparently I can't post it yet because I haven't been here long enough.  I'll get it up eventually.

Welcome to the Forum!  I'm from Northeast Philly born and raised, but leaving soon.  I heard a rumor of a CD 2/13 merger to force Fattah and Schwartz into a primary.  While it would be a bruiser, on one hand I could see making Gerlach/Meehan/Fitzpatrick more vulnerable.  I agree Broad St. is an excellent CD 1/2 split.  Thing is I feel Bob Brady is a better representative for South Philly in total along with the "River Wards" of Fishtown/Port Richmond, etc. while Fattah would  well represent parts east of Broad St. north of Center City that Brady currently represents.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hey, if the GOP wants to forego a Democratic Northeast Philadelphia, inner suburban vote sink, I'm all for it!  Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick have some votes to explain as their districts are drawn now and with a combined CD 2/13, they'll have an even tougher audience to explain their support of the Ryan budget for starters.  If the GOP did that, ok you'll have Fattah or Schwartz having to back out to avoid a Dem party confrontation with the NAACP, which could be messy.  Overall I'd say let 'em have at it!  We could get a sweep of Southeastern PA once again and hopefully if the GOP thinks they can add Dem areas to Pitts' district, the 16th, I'd say let that hard rightie explain some of his votes AND antics to a more moderate 16th district.    

[TeePee4Prez]

Hey, if the GOP wants to forego a Democratic Northeast Philadelphia, inner suburban vote sink, I'm all for it!  Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick have some votes to explain as their districts are drawn now and with a combined CD 2/13, they'll have an even tougher audience to explain their support of the Ryan budget for starters.  If the GOP did that, ok you'll have Fattah or Schwartz having to back out to avoid a Dem party confrontation with the NAACP, which could be messy.  Overall I'd say let 'em have at it!  We could get a sweep of Southeastern PA once again and hopefully if the GOP thinks they can add Dem areas to Pitts' district, the 16th, I'd say let that hard rightie explain some of his votes AND antics to a more moderate 16th district.    

Sweep of SE PA again? You've never swept it before. Gerlach won all of those elections, remember?

Take the excessively partisan talk elsewhere. This thread has been pretty good with focusing on the potential make up of the future map/sharing ideas for maps.

Map drawing is a partisan game.  You have to admit it.

[TeePee4Prez]

I agree it shouldn't be a partisan game either.  Iowa has the right idea.  Computer spits it out by population.  The lines are consistent by county.  GAME ON!  PA is too much about protecting old, powerful incumbents on both sides and I'll even mention the late Jack Murtha here.

[TeePee4Prez]

Okay, let's go insane gerrymander for potential 12-4:



PA-01 - 88.1 Obama, 11.4 McCain, 86.9 D avg
PA-02 - 86.3 Obama, 13.3 McCain, 84.2 D avg, 51.2% black VAP
PA-03 - 51.7 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 50.9 R avg
PA-04 - 55.0 McCain, 44.0 Obama, 51.6 R avg
PA-05 - 52.9 McCain, 45.6 Obama, 53.3 R avg
PA-06 - 52.9 Obama, 46.1 McCain, 51.0 R avg
PA-07 - 52.8 Obama, 46.3 McCain, 50.1 D avg
PA-08 - 53.5 Obama, 45.4 McCain, 52.3 D avg
PA-09 - 59.4 McCain, 39.5 Obama, 61.0 R avg
PA-10 - 53.6 McCain, 45.1 Obama, 57.5 R avg
PA-11 - 56.5 McCain, 42.2 Obama, 59.1 R avg
PA-12 - 52.0 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 57.6 R avg
PA-13 - 54.2 Obama, 44.8 McCain, 52.1 D avg
PA-14 - 68.6 Obama, 30.4 McCain, 70.5 D avg
PA-15 - 53.1 Obama, 45.6 McCain, 51.3 D avg
PA-16 - 51.8 Obama, 47.4 McCain, 54.3 R avg
PA-17 - 62.1 Obama, 36.8 McCain, 61.6 D avg
PA-18 - 54.6 McCain, 44.4 Obama, 50.5 R avg

This is an overreach that could BADLY backfire for the GOP in a wave year.  A Blue Dog could easily win every non-Philly/suburban Philly, Pittsburgh district except PA-9.  And I had this thought for PA 17.  With a district THAT Democratic, I think we can primary Holden in favor of full fledged Democrat.  A PA 3/4/5/10/11/12 I'll suck up a Blue Dog/Bob Casey-like Dem who will vote my way 60-70% of the time and be winnable.  For this type of PA 17, I'll want a more liberal Dem.

[TeePee4Prez]

Message to PA GOP: I DOUBLE DOG DARE YOU TO OVERREACH ON REAPPORTIONMENT!

Wouldn't it be funny to have the GOP left with only PA 9?  Put Blue Dogs in districts west of the Susquehanna and north of PA-17 except Pittsburgh, I could see it happen with that map in a 2006/8-like wave.  Even with the map, we can get away with full fledged Dems east of Harrisburg.

Of course, I would have liked to see a non-ideological, even county truce, but that's what few in the GOP want.  They smell blood, they take advantage.

[TeePee4Prez]

Well... I could see some potential overreach by the GOP and may eventually get burned once again.  Let's hope.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pitts isn't exactly safe since he's a dick

He rates as "a dick" on the BRTD Index. Watch out, Congressman.

The best part of your stupid post (pardon the redundancy) is where you admit that you don't even know much about the guy.

He makes some pretty far right votes for the district.  In a wave year, yes I could see this seat in D hands.  Funny how I called a PA-7 shift westward.  Didn't think they'd expose Pitts THIS much.  And who would have thought at one point PA 8 AND 13 would be in D hands for 4 years?  The GOP now does not have at least one seat totally safe east of Harrisburg.  Pitts will surely have stronger challenges from here on out.

[TeePee4Prez]

Holden already gets a "serious" primary challenger - http://www.politicspa.com/serious-primary-challenger-emerges-for-holden/30293/

I knew there would be a more liberal challenger to Holden considering the new dynamics of the district.  As for Holden, I'd say good riddance!  I was fine with him in OLD PA-17, but not liking him so much anymore.

[TeePee4Prez]

I am in Cheltenham and I believe that is still Fattah's district (2nd).

Looks like you'll be in the 13th.  Funny in a few weeks I'll be in Chaka's district.