Canada Federal Representation 2024

[DL]

Its worth noting that if the recently announced Liberal-NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement actually lasts through to 2025 - it would mean that the next federal election would be fought using the new map!

[DL]

Legislation to protect provinces from losing representation:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/feds-look-to-amend-constitution-act-to-impose-new-minimum-seat-count-for-each-province-1.5833425

Over time this could lead to the House of Commons getting bigger and bigger because as the relative populations of Ontario, BC and Alberta grow they will need more seats and they will never be able to substract any from any other province.

[DL]

There is some speculation that the proposed new boundaries for the Halifax riding would make it notionally NDP. Population growth in Halifax means that riding boundaries have to move inwards and cede outlying areas

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/prop/index_e.aspx

[DL]

FWIW as I recall from the last redistribution, the final maps were often very different from the initial proposal by the commission. You can be sure that there will be very raucous public meetings in BC and lots of lobbying for changes to these maps

[DL]

Saskatchewan's proposal is out... and all I can say is whoa, whoa, whoa! The NDP will be pleased; if they can't win Saskatoon Centre, they can't win anything. Also, Churchill River is at -43.72%(!!!). I didn't think any Commission would go down to that point, least of all a Prairie one!

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/sk/prop/othaut/int_e.aspx

That Saskatoon Centre riding will easily go NDP. Weird how Saskatoon gets an urban central district, but Regina doesn't.

Will be curious to see the transposed numbers in the Churchill River riding. As long as it still contains Meadow Lake, it will be tough for the NDP to win it, though.

Now the NDP just has to fight tooth and nail to get people who support the creation of Saskatoon Centre to speak out at the hearings that will take place. You have to think the Tories will throw everything but the kitchen sink at preventing that seat from being created.

I guess Saskatoon has a population large enough to be entitled to about 3.5 seats - so it gets a city centre seats, two suburban seats and a seat that is half suburban and half rural. Regina is entitled to 2.5 seats so it gets two purely urban seats and one that is half urban and half rural (like before). I guess Saskatoon has been growing much faster than Regina over the last ten years.

[DL]

I'm trying to imagine the pushback you'd get here if a district crossed Halifax Harbour. Crossing the bridge for a district is a huge no-no here.

There is a big difference though - Halifax and Dartmouth have been separate cities for most of their history and have always each been their own federal riding.

Saskatoon was once all one riding and it was on both sides of the river. Someone from Saskatoon can correct me but I don't think people there have a strong regional identity based on whether they live on the east or west side of the river - the cleavage is more downtown vs suburbs.

Regina ridings have crossed Wascana Creek before and and we all know in BC you have a riding that is partly North vancouver and partly Burnaby and now a proposed seats that crosses the Fraser river. I can remember when Calgary was just three ridings and Calgary Centre was on both sides of the Bow river too

[DL]

Do the proposed new boundaries in Edmonton make Blake Desjarlais’s seat any more or less safe for thé NDP?

[DL]

Are we ever going to get a proposed new map for Ontario???

[DL]

Why must they always split St. John's down the middle and make two "rurban" seats as opposed to having a purely urban inner city St. St. John's seats and another seat that is more suburbs and exurbs and some of rural Avalon?

[DL]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

Traditions are made to be broken! I just feel there would be more of a "community of interest" if there was an inner city St. John's seat plus a donut like seat that was more St. John's suburbs, exurbs and some of rural Avalon.

[DL]

Historically, the NDP has done better provincially in the city's easy end, but that appears to no longer be the case. The NDP's only riding in the city is now in St. John's South-Mt Pearl.

Are you sure about that? St. John's Centre looks to me to be split between St. John's East and St. John's South-Mt Pearl

[DL]

How much have the boundaries typically changed between the first proposal by the commission and the final map after all the hearings and consultations? As i recall in 2013/2014 there were some pretty big changes in some provinces

[DL]

Why not create a riding that brings together Rosedale, Forest Hill, Leaside and some of North Toronto and have one riding that is exclusively made up of really rich areas so that the rich can elect an MP who will be there to defend their interests relentlessly and without having to care about what poorer constituents think. From the point of view of "community of interest" isn't about time that there was one riding that the super rich could call their own? 

[DL]

Can someone refresh my memory about the extent to which the hearings in 2012-2013 led to any significant to the final maps compared to the preliminary maps? As I recall the final map of downtown Toronto was vastly different from the initial one.

[DL]

FWIW, the new Sask map could make Regina-Lewvan a bit more winnable for the NDP as it shifts a chunk of NDP friendly inner city Regina from Regina-Qu-Appele (where it did no good) to Lewvan

[DL]

How is it possible for Churchill River to now be notionally Liberal? In the 2021 election the Tory MP won by 22 points 49% to 27%. How can a relatively marginal change in the map turn that into a double digit Liberal lead??!

[DL]

So I guess now we are just waiting for final maps for BC, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec?

[DL]

Realistically does anything change once the final reports are in? I was under the impression that the maps are now more or less final and that any House of Commons hearings now are just MPs putting objections in the record but nothing will change

[DL]

The B.C. report is out.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/bc/rprt/index_e.aspx

Here are some better maps:

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/bc/rprt/othaut/p3_e.aspx


It features the first federal riding named after a Borg: Vancouver Arbutus.

Jagmeet Singh may have to fly back to Brampton.

Two Kamloops ridings are twice the fun!

Of the 43 ridings, 32 are within 5% of the provincial quotient, 10 are between 5%-10%, and just one (Skeena--Bulkley Valley) is beyond 10%.

Why would Jagmeet Singh need to go anywhere when the new Burnaby Central seat overlaps a lot with his current seat and may even be better for him

[DL]

Vancouver West Broadway is also better for the NDP at a similar vote spread 40% LPC 31 NDP; Vancouver Centre also at 41% LPC 30% NDP... is that right? the number being SO similar?  

The NDP have to worry more about the elimination of South Okanagan—West Kootenay; it looks like the new Similkameen-West Kootenay is a razor edge NDP seat, 39% to CPC 37%; Columbia-Kootenay-Southern Rookies is about the same even with added territory, so still worth targetting.  

Keep in mind that these new seats will create very new dynamics. For example, there is a lot of natural NDP territory in Kitsilano (David Eby's provincial seat) in the new Vancouver West Broadway that was not really tapped in the last few elections when it was all part of the totally unwinnable Vancouver-Quadra seat - so the NDP vote in that area is likely a lot higher than last election results would indicate. Similarly, Vancouver South was never a winnable seat for the NDP but the easternmost part of it that is now merged with a chunk of Burnaby is solidly NDP provincially and could all yield more votes than the 2021 poll by poll results in that area would suggest.

I call this the "assimilation effect" - when redistribution puts an area in a new riding with totally different dynamics and all of a sudden the party you might have voted for in the past but didn't because they were not competitive in the seat, is now no longer a wasted vote.

[DL]

FWIW, my own riding of University-Rosedale becomes marginally more NDP-friendly, ceding a chunk of Rosedale dead zone and annexing the very NDP friendly part of Spadina-Fort York that is between Dundas and Queen Sts. This will shore up Jessica Bell provincially (assuming that Ontario against uses the federal map) and will make UR that much more up for grabs in the post-Freeland era

[DL]

•   Skipping all the way down to Toronto, I’m certain Jill Andrews is not happy about removing the area south of Vaughan Rd and west of Winona Dr from her riding.

Agreed, though this is no where near as bad for her as the proposal map would have been which would have made the seat totally unwinnable. She loses a relatively small area that is good for her and takes on a small area that is not so great - but all in all the seat does not change drastically.

[DL]

Krago, what are your thoughts on the impact of the changes to University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York (now Toronto-Waterfront)?

[DL]

Looks like the NDP is -1 with Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing gone. the new SSM-Algoma would be a fight between two incumbents if Carole Hughes (NDP) and Terry Sheehan (LPC) both run. Interestingly enough the new seat, under 2021 vote, would go CPC and not to either incumbent party.

Carol Hughes was first elected in 2008 so she may or may not run again next election. But the other possibility would be that she would run in the new Nickel Belt seat that takes in some of the old Algoma seat. I don't know where actually lives but that would be a consideration.

[DL]

Carole Hughes already lives in Nickel Belt.

Hmmm... that might actually be a better fit for her/NDP

I believe the new riding is called Manitoulin-Nickel Belt