Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[DL]

I'm guessing it's really hard to get good polling for a province as lightly-populated and sparse as Newfoundland

That's not the issue, there are over half a million people in Newfoundland and they all have phones and there are even regular online polls of people in NL. But polls cost money and someone has to pay for them.

[DL]

Abacus:

PC: 42
Lib: 37
NDP: 15

So, actually an interesting race developing.

And if the NDP is actually in the low teens, that should be enough to hang on to Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi.

Its hard to say - while its true the NDP is only running 14 candidates - the ridings where they are not running candidates are virtually all places where they only got low single digits in 2015. The Abacus poll says the NDP is at 19% in the Avalon peninsula, which includes St. John's. But the NDP vote is likely heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 inner St. John's seats. Also 2015 was a massive Liberal landslide whereas this time the Liberals have lost a ton of support to the PCs and that likely creates more fvaourable vote splits for the NDP in the two or three seats where they are in contention.

[DL]

Keep in mind that in 2015 the popular vote in NL was:

Liberals  - 57%
PCs - 30%
NDP - 12%
Other - 1%

If you believe the Abacus poll the Liberals are down 20 points, PCs are up 12, NDP is up 3 and other is up 5

[DL]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

That will certainly be true of some people - but as i mentioned most (if not all) of the ridinsg that have no NDP candidate are also ridings where NDP support is typically close to non-existent in the first place.

[DL]

I'm sure a lot of that 15% are people who are expecting to vote NDP, but will be surprised to find out they have no candidate in that riding. So, in reality, we're talking about something much closer to 10%.

That will certainly be true of some people - but as i mentioned most (if not all) of the ridinsg that have no NDP candidate are also ridings where NDP support is typically close to non-existent in the first place.

- The NDP have candidates in all St. John's riding's (arguably where their strength is)
- 3 of the 6 riding's called "St.John's suburbs" have NDP candidates (Mount Pearl North having the best result at 24%, also held by PCs though so probably no)
- 1 of the 5 "Avalon Peninsula" riding's, and not one here really has any real strength based on past results. Harbour Main should have been a target, again in 2015 they pulled in 24%
- 2 of 7 in "Western NFLD" Corner Brooks (candidate in place) looked to have been their best result at about 17%
- 1 of 4 in Labrador, and arguably one of their highest targets at 34% in 2015 in Labrador West.

This is relatively a pretty strategic slate (still terrible not to run a full slate, but best they could do we know), I do think Gander could have been one to have tried to get a candidate in place for, the NDP won 25% in 2015, one of their stronger results outside the Avalon.

Politics in NL is very personality based. You often get "flash in the pan" high results for the NDP in particular ridings thanks to running a candidate who is a local superstar - but unless that individual runs again, support melts away to nothing. The NDP almost won Burin in 2011 but then the local mayor who ran didnt run again and support vanished. Almost any riding could conceivably be winnable. Newfoundland is all pretty "working class" so there really are no ridings that could never go NDP for ideological reasons. There is no NL equivalent to rural southern Alberta.

[DL]

Forum:

42-40-13

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3378d018-a80f-4817-9ae5-c18fc55e51cbNL%20Issues_May%208th%202019_final.pdf

Their seat projection says the PCs will get 19 seats, the Liberals 18 seats and the NDP 3 seats...if that happened it could be another BC or NB situation

[DL]

12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain

What's the rationale behind predicting that the NDP would hold St. John's Centre - which they have only held since 2011 and where the new candidate is not the leader - but that they would lose St. John's East-Quidi Vidi - which has been an NDP seat since 1993 and where the leader is running - and she seems to have done well in the leaders debate etc...?

FWIW, the final poll by Mainstreet has NDP support in the St. John's area at 24% - which would actually be an improvement over what they got in 2015 while the Liberals have dropped and the PCs have gained...in that context its hard to see the Liberals gaining any seats from anyone

[DL]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

Quito's predictions at the riding level are pretty crappy. He predicted every seat in Alberta and in several he was off by a mile!

[DL]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

Quito's predictions at the riding level are pretty crappy. He predicted every seat in Alberta and in several he was off by a mile!

To be fair, he was very good in the Ontario election. I didn't follow his Alberta predictions that closely, but I loled at him predicting the Liberals would win Mountainview (they came a distant 4th with 6% of the vote). Our internals didn't give him a chance. I suspect he is over-predicting the Liberals here as well.

Ontario ridings are big enough that they can be polled and mainstreet did a gazillion riding polls. Provincial ridings in NL are extremely small and each have about one sixth the population of an Ontario riding. Its virtually impossible to draw any kind of an accurate sample in such a small electorate and with response rates to IVR polls being so low - a riding poll that mainstreet would do in NL - likels is a poll of 30-40 old people with landlines...

[DL]

The United Steelworkers have a lot of members in Labrador West and USW is a very pro ndp Union. They likely would have done a lot of campaigning for the ndp there.

[DL]

Judicial recount confirms the NDP win in Labrador West by a TWO VOTE margin! This means the Liberals lost their majority by TWO votes.

Every vote counts!

[DL]

Reading the Twitter thread about the recount process, it really could've gone either way. Some rather dubious decisions by the judges about which ballots should count and not.

Can anything be appealed or is this final final?