Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[DL]

Maybe in honour of The Beachcombers, we could rename West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Highway "Bruno Gerussi"

[DL]

There must be a ton of famous people from Toronto-Centre or Trinity-Spadina too!

[DL]

Surely some famous authors grew up in Rosedale...or maybe since u of T is in Trinity-Spadina, we could name the riding Marshall McLuhan or Northrup Frye?

[DL]

Cotler and Dion to challenge the boundaries.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/07/19/grit-mps-dion-cotler-plan-to-challenge-%E2%80%98arbitrary%E2%80%99-riding-boundary-changes/31540

So, why do you think the NDP hasn't said anything yet? Is it because a) we're too incompetent for this kind of thing (haven't heard the party do anything except for when we were working on it in Hyer's office, but now he's an independent), or is it (b) because it doesn't matter, because the NDP will reap up the rewards of any re-drawn map. Or is it (c) the Liberals (and the Tories) have been MPs longer, and feel more entitled to their ridings.

My theory (as far as Quebec is concerned) is as follows:

1. There are so many changes to so many ridings in Quebec that it will take a bit of time for the NDP (with 59 seats to protect) to assess what it all means and which proposed changes work in the NDP's favour and which ones don't.

2. Its difficult for the NDP to get a handle on the electoral geography in Quebec since support there is so vast and so recent...old-times like Cotler and Dion have run over and over again and know exactly where their pockets of support and opposition are...also they feel more tied to the geographic intergrity of their ridings since they have been there for so long. Most NDP MPs are just starting to set down roots their ridings in the first place. Also for the NDP - the more seats in Quebec, the merrier

3. What's the big rush?? Hearings won't happen until Fall - what's to be gained by individual NDP MPs freelancing and squawking about every little twist and turn of the boundaries? Isn't it better for the party to come up with a province-wide strategy and talking points for how to deal with redistribution?

[DL]

Does Cotler have an issue with more working class areas being added?

While you're right that the changes are small, John-Peters-Humphrey is a bit less working-class and probably a bit more winnable for the Conservatives than the old Mount Royal. It loses the main section of Cote-des-Neiges, a low-income area with many English-speaking (Black Caribbean and South Asian) immigrants that stayed very Liberal in 2011, while gaining some generic suburbia by the airport that voted NDP and a few pretty well-off polls in that sort of transition zone between NDG and Westmount where all three federalist parties are competitive.

Its considered a foregone conclusion that Cotler will retire in 2015...but I think that these new boundaries make the seat harder to win for the Tories not easier. The working class part of Cote des Neiges that is cut out is quite small compared to the big chunk of Lachine and Dorval that gets added...and these are all areas where Tory support was literally almost NIL last time.

[DL]

Its very hard to say what will happen in Mount Royal next time (whatever it ends up being called). I think that the Tories hit their absolute ceiling there last time with 36% and its hard to see them going much higher - apart from a handful of mostly elderly old Jewish ladies who might have wanted to vote for the Conservative but had some vestigial personal loyalty to Cotler - and most of those people will have died of natural causes by 2015.

Its not inconceivable that if the Liberal death rattle spiral continues and Cotler quits...what if the NDP nominates a high profile candidate and becomes the new default non-Tory, non-BQ strategic vote? What if post Cotler the Liberal vote in MR goes the way of the Liberal vote in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca once Keith martin quit? 

[DL]

Its very hard to say what will happen in Mount Royal next time (whatever it ends up being called). I think that the Tories hit their absolute ceiling there last time with 36% ...

No. The Sephardic and Orthodox populations are growing rapidly here due to immigration and large families; this is one of the reasons for the recent increased Conservative strength.

Thing is according to the latest statscan data, Mount Royal is 30% Jewish and 70% everything else. Conservative support is literally almost zilch among the 70% and there is a sizeable chunk of the Jewish community that is very socially liberal and will never vote Conservative. It would take a real "perfect storm" for the Tories to win there. it almost happened last time but unlikely next time - especially as the riding is enlarged and all the new areas are francophone and lower-middle class

[DL]

There are also a lot of left-leaning Jews in Montreal who vote NDP or misguidedly Liberal...they tend not to live in god-awful places like Cote St. Luc though.

[DL]

There are also a lot of left-leaning Jews in Montreal who vote NDP or misguidedly Liberal...they tend not to live in god-awful places like Cote St. Luc though.

Well, if you live there, you're quite wealthy.

The big homes are in Hampstead...Cote St. luc is mostly tacky bungalows that were considered "state of the art" in the 60s and are now dated and shabby. There are also quite a few apartment buildings there. It's more or less the Montreal equivalent of very tacky middle class Jewish suburbia in Toronto that was built in the 60s like Bathurst and Lawrence. Sure it's wealthy compared to Ville d'Anjou... But among Anglo suburbs in Montreal Cote St. luc is wayyyy down the pecking order behind Westmount, Hampstead, Beaconsfield, Dollard, Pointe Claire....believe me saying you live in CSL is NOT a status symbol in Montreal.

[DL]

The new proposed Saskatchewan map has just been posted:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=sk&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

At first glance it looks like it has been almost perfectly designed to maximize the number of NDP seats in the province. Yippee!

[DL]

Its true that the NDP was complicit in having the "rurban" ridings in Sask in the 2003 redistribution - but this time the NDP was lobbying fiercely to have them scrapped. The reality is they cannot be eliminated totally. Saskatoon is no problem because the population of the city is just big enough to create three purely urban ridings (as has been done), but in Regina the city is smaller than Saskatoon and is big enough for about 2.7 ridings - so any ways you slice it - you need to have one remaining "rurban" seat in Regina.

[DL]

I agree, but ultimately it won't change the fact that unless Goodale retires - the three Regina seats will go CPC-1, NDP-1 and Libs-1...

[DL]

The proposed new Manitoba map is out...changes are minor but the most significant change is that Winnipeg North (which went Liberal over NDP by a paper thin 49 vote margin) loses a chunk of very Liberal suburban territory and gains a chunk of old working class inner city territory that was previously in Kildonan-St. Paul...The seat is almost certainly now notionally NDP by several hundred votes

[DL]

It looks like the Town of Morris was gerrymandered back into Provencher. Where the area around Morris moved to Portage-Lisgar

So what? Both Provencher and Portage-Lisgar are already two of the safest Tory seats in all of Canada - we call it "gerrymandering" when it serves a purpose...this serves no purpose.

[DL]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

I suspcet that while its a bit under populated right now, the commission has looked at projections that say that riding is likely to grow a lot over the next ten years.

[DL]

NO - the new Nickel Belt-Temiskaming becomes more competitive for the tories i suspect, infact you would have two incumbents running...

I doubt it...the Tory MP for Nipissing-Timiskaming who won by just 18 votes would obviously run in the new riding of Nipissing which is now much more solidly Tory, rather than run against an NDP incumbent from Nickel Belt.

[DL]

St. Paul's takes a big chunk from T-S and also a chunk from Davenport and it loses all the territory east of Avenue that was an NDP dead zone.

[DL]

Regarding Welland - its worth noting that the reason why the proposed new riding of Welland is "notionally" Tory is that it absorbs the town of Fort Erie from the safe Tory seat of Niagara Falls. Its true that Fort Erie went CPC by a wide margin in May 2011 when it was part of Niagara Falls, but just 5 months later in the provincial election, the ONDP made a much bigger effort in the provincial riding of Niagara Falls and while they lost in what was a relatively close 3-way race - the NDP actually carried the town of Fort Erie and got a significantly higher % of the vote there than they had in the federal election. I think this is further evidence that the NDP is likely to do much better in the new riding of Welland than the notional numbers might lead us to believe.

[DL]

The new maps are out for NB, SK and BC. NB shows little change from the first proposal. In Saskatchewan the all-urban ridings have survived and Saskatoon makes way more sense than before. In BC, Surrey has been rejigged to be way better for the NDP and ditto with Vancouver Island - unfortunately north Burnaby is still stuck folded in with North Vancouver.

[DL]

The first proposal took the NDP down to only one Surrey riding. Will the final report restore two? Prospects for more?
South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca was going to have a transposed NDP majority of 115 votes. Will Cowichan—Malahat—Langford have a higher one?

I'm pretty sure that the final map gives the NDP two Surrey seats: Surrey Centre (actually a renamed Surrey North) and Surrey-Newton. The other good news is that I think the new boundaries make North Vancouver Island and Courtney-Alberni either notionally NDP or at least much lower hanging fruit than they were before.

[DL]

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?
Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

Keep in mind that Port Moody was part of James Moore's riding last time and the NDP made no effort there...historically the NDP has actually done quite well in Port Moody and wins it provincially as well, so i think that Fin Donnelly could probably drive up the NDP vote there to its "natural" level if it became part of his riding.

[DL]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

[DL]

Bear in mind that these proposed federal boundaries won't be used for an Ontario provincial election until the one after the next one - in all likelihood. It is not automatic for the Ontario boundaries to inherit the federal boundaries - the Ontario government has to decide to do it and pass legislation. So, IF Rosario Marchese runs and wins again in an election expected in 2013/2014 in the existing Trinity-Spadina dn IF he decides to run again in the election after that likely in 2017 or even 2018 - then he would have to decide where to run...but he'll be kinda old by then and it will probably be time to pass the torch regardless.

[DL]

The new Ahuntsic-Cartierville riding will create some interesting dynamics. Maria Mourani against all odds was one of the four BQ survivors thanks to an almost perfect three way split with the Libs and NDP - but the BQ is long term decline PLUS under the new map - Ahuntsic loses a slice in the east that is solidly BQ and gain Cartierville in the west where BQ support is virtually nil. The chances of Mourani being able to win that seat as a Bloquiste are non-existent. Will she quit? will she parachute to a totally different riding that is more francophone? while she beg the NDP to take her in? Also, assuming a much weaker BQ in 2015 and possibly no incumbent running again in that seat - what happens to the still significant BQ vote? My hunch is that in 2015 Ahuntsic-Cartierville will be a big Liberal/NDP showdown and the BQ vote will evaporate to the NDP's benefit.

[DL]

Its worth noting that the proposed new University-Rosedale seats turns out to be a much safer NDP seat than St. Paul would have been if it had absorbed the Annex. U-R would have gone NDP by 13 points in 2011 while the proposed new St. paul would have been NDP by only 1 or 2%