Seat redistribution in Canada (user search)
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  Seat redistribution in Canada (search mode)
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Author Topic: Seat redistribution in Canada  (Read 6335 times)
DL
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Posts: 3,461
Canada


« on: October 25, 2011, 01:19:21 PM »


No safe seat in Brampton. That was personal vote for Singh. Now that he's an MPP, the NDP will have to find another strong candidate to win the riding.

Growth areas in Ontario will benefit the Tories the most. In the Ottawa area, it will be the Tory strong hold of Nepean-Carleton that splits up into 2 safe Tory seats.  Much of the growth in the 905 is in York and Peel, which will mostly benefit the Tories, unless the Liberals come out of the wilderness. Perhaps a smaller Oshawa riding will make it competitive for the NDP, but I doubt it. Also, there's some growth in Scarborough which might help the NDP out a bit. The NDP should really be targeting Scarborough next election. All of this will be circumvented by a possible riding loss in northern Ontario.

With regard to Brampton, I agree that no redrawing of boundaries will suddenly create a "safe" NDP seat. BUT, the fact is Brampton as a whole is a relatively homogeneous place. Now that the NDP has shown it can win there and now they have an MPP with staff etc...all kinds of possibilities could open up and while redistribution will not create any safe NDP seats there - any new seat created in Brampton could be a potential NDP seat. Jagmeet Singh's win in BGM could be like Mulcair's win in Outremont (also dismissed as just a personal vote - but proved to be an important beach head).

Another point, because of all the new condos and repopulation of the downtown core, two of the most over-populated Ontario ridings are actually Trinity-Spadina and Toronto Centre. If Ontario gets 13 new seats - it is very likely that a new one will be created in downtown TO as well.
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,461
Canada


« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2011, 07:01:23 PM »

We have a very good idea of how many people are in each province. The 2011 census data will be key to determining the population of all the current ridings within each province and figuring out where the new ridings should be located etc...
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