2012 NDP leadership convention

[DL]

I'm not at all surprised Niki Ashton is running. Its been talked about for over a month and there was clearly a need to have someone from the Prairies in the race. Its true that she's young (29) - but she will be 33 in 2015 and Ed Schreyer became Premier of MB at the age of 32 and Bourassa was in his early 30s when he became Premier of Quebec in 1970.

Niki brings a lot of strengths to the table. She speaks something like six languages fluently (her French is almost flawless) and she is very bright. People should take her seriously.

[DL]

Quebec: BC still has 30,000 though. And even if Quebec continues expanding at their current rate they won't catch up. Long-term, Quebecers don't become party members regardless of party- even the BQ.

I'm not so sure about that. I just read that even after the debacle last May, the BQ supposedly has over 50,000 members in Quebec and I think the Liberals and PQ have each well over 50,000 members. I'm not sure how many members the federal Liberals and Tories have in Quebec...would be interesting to find out.

I would not be surprised if by Feb. 18 NDP membership in QC triples again to about 15,000. The 59 Quebec MPs half of whom back Mulcair and several of whom are backing other candidates are only just beginning to systematically promote NDP memberships in their ridings. It is not at all unusual for incumbent MPs to have riding associations with at least 300 card carrying members.

[DL]

I would not describe Helene Leblanc or Alexandrine Latendresse as "big backers" of Mulcair...they are run of the mill QC back-benchers. It would be more accurate to say "a slew of QC MPs". Bigger backers of Mulcair would be NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy, Foreign policy expert Michael Byers

Dewar has been endorsed by a slew of Manitoba government people.

Niki Ashton is backed by a couple of QC MPs and her campaign is chaired by Jean-Francois larose MP.

[DL]

I wish i could see the French half of the debate in French so i could actually hear how the candidates express themselves in French.

[DL]

I heard Brian Topp at an event tonight and I have to say that he was very impressive and I agreed with everything he said. I was surprised at how good he was in person!

[DL]

I guess Topp would offer great hope to the Tories - they might get an even higher percentage of the vote from people making over $250,000/year - (ie: approximately 0.01% of the population)

[DL]

Actually I think its about one half of one percent of Canadians with a personal income of over 250,000 - but i will verify. Whatever it is - it is a very small number!

[DL]

OK, I checked with Statscan - 0.07% of tax filers in Canada have incomes of over $250,000. So that means that 99.93% of Canadians will NOT pay anything more in taxes under Topp's plan. I'm thinking 250,000 is too high a level to set the new bracket at - why not $200,000??

[DL]

If people vote their self-interest, the NDP will get 99.93 % of the vote and the Tories will get the other 0.07%

[DL]

If ever having had tied to a union is such a disadvantage - how is it that the former leader of the Manitoba Government Employees Union - Gary Doer - won three terms in Manitoba and is now Canadian ambassador toi the US. Its not as if MB is some uniquely pro-union province by any means.

[DL]

The fact of the matter is that if the Tories really wanted to go on a "union bashing" frenzy - they could find ways to attack virtually ANY of the leading NDP leadership candidates:

Topp - a union boss if ever there was one - he is executive director of ACTRA whihc represents freelance actors, artists and technicians
Mulcair - was once an officer in the union representing Quebec public service employees
Nash - long history with the Canadian Auto Workers
Dewar - was formerly a regional VP with ETFO Elementary Teachers Federation of Ontario
Chisholm - formerly a regional VP with CUPE

[DL]

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2011/12/11/peggy-nash-nets-ndps-top-endorsement-laytons-finance-critic?page=0%2C0

Funny that the newspapers all think Nash is rather left wing

Maybe because she is very much an Old Labour-type in every sense of the word?

First of all the newspapers think anyone in the NDP is "rather leftwing" since the party is left of centre. These days Blair and his "New Labour" policies have been widely discredited, so people can debate what wrong "old Labour"

[DL]

No one said you were "crazy", just that there is little evidence that any of the candidates for the NDP leadership differ very much from one another ideologically. They differ in style and in personal characteristics and a bit in what issues they have chosen to emphasize in their campaigns - but we had a debate on the economy last week that was essentially a love-in since everyone agreed with each other about everything!

[DL]

Well, they will most likely be choosing either Topp or Mulcair. Nash would need an urban prog image makeover to sell here IMO.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-born-leaders-give-federal-parties-a-significant-electoral-edge/article2267922/

Actually, if I was a betting man (no Mitt Romney $10,000 bets thank you very much) i would put my money on Peggy Nash winning this thing. I don't think she needs much of an "urban prog" makeover - she already is a quintessential urban progressive and the people working on her campaign seem to be all the young, trendy urban types.

[DL]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

[DL]

Mulcair's strategy has been fairly straightforward: Quebec plus emphasizing his envirocred to pull Cullen and Nash supporters into his camp. Aiming for the urban progs, not the unions whom he can't credibly woo and have already lined up with either Topp or Nash. Whether that works remains to be seen. Personally I think there's a good chance of him finishing behind Nash unless there's a  wave for him in the West and/or Atlantic Canada. No way can he do well in Ontario with 2 Ontarian household names in the race.

Are you aware that yesterday Mulcair was endorsed by Wayne Samuelson the longtime President of the Ontario Federation of Labour?

[DL]

The point is that Mulcair does have some labour support. In any case now that the NDP has eliminated the 25% labour "carve-out" in the voting process, being the candidate of the labour movement is far lss meaningful than it used to be. BTW: Paul Dewar just got endorsed by 5 current and former chairs of the Manitoba Fed. of Labour. My sense is that labour is all over the map in this race.   

[DL]

I think that if Liberals get a stronger leader and Topp gets leadership, NDP will sink. Nash can be weak at French, but she can have a strong bond with Quebec in policies. That was the first factor for Orange Crush.

Why would Nash have any better a bond with Quebec policy-wise than Topp? They both sing very much the same policy hymn book, plus he is Quebecer and speaks a more colloquial French than she does. Her French is not "weak" its actually very strong. Nash has a graduate degree in French literature.

[DL]

Because I don't get a good vibe from Topp. I suppose I'm not alone.

I didn't get a good vibe from Topp at first, but then I heard him speak and was actually very impressed by him...and he's very articulate in French too!

[DL]

I don't know what they mean by a "coronation" - no one in the NDP sees it as a coronation at all. It has always been a highly competitive race and I don't think Topp ever expected otherwise. I also think that the "timing" issue they refer to is a total non-issue. Topp may or may not be elected leader of the NDP, but if he loses it will not be because word of his candidacy leaked a bit faster than some people might have liked. I doubt if any NDP members care or even remember that - three months ago is already ancient history.

I was amused t how the At Issue pundits described Topp as an "over-rated" politician. My reaction was "over-rated by who???" I have yet to hear anyone go on and on about how fantastic he is in the first place. If anyone, we tend to hear so much about how he has no political experience and no retail political skills...at this point I see him more as an "under-rated" politician!

[DL]

Broadbent and Romanow do not equal "the entire NDP establishment" they are two important people among many.

[DL]

I don't believe federal NDP membership lists can be bought by third parties. Those lists are only made available to candidates for the leadership.

[DL]

Mulcair is not francophone. HIs mother tongue is English.

[DL]

Define "high octane"

[DL]

This is all water under the bridge but as i recall when Mazigh ran in 2004 (back when SSM was a contentious issue) she said that she personally had problems with the idea as a Muslim but that she would NOT vote against SSM if it came to vote in the House of Commons.