Gerrymandering Canada

[DL]

One thing that will be very interesting will be what happens in downtown Toronto. Right now because of all the new development and condo construction, Olivia Chow's Trinity-Spadina seat is seriously over-populated and so is Toronto Centre. Its almost certain that a new seat will have to carved out there.

Ideally, I'd like to see Rosedale lopped off and merged with Forest Hill and or Leaside and create a "vote sink" that is all really wealthy NDP dead zones.

You could also easily create another NDP seat on vancouver island.

[DL]

Its interesting that in Australia many (if not most) ridings (they call them "electorates") are named after historical figures and not after the places in the ridings. Just about every Australian PM who is not still living has a riding named after him etc...

BTW: While creating a Liberal riding in Peel requires serious gerrymandering - making an NDP-friendly Gore-Malton is dead easy and is even likely since Brampton will almost certainly get an extra seat after redistribition. Right now Brampton West is the most heavily populated riding in Canada!

We could probably also create a third NDP seat in Surrey, BC

[DL]

2 NDP seats in Regina. Ralph Goodale would be upset, he'd probably lose in a more ruralized Wascana riding.

Regina Wascana is a bit deceptive because most of the people who would normally vote NDP are voting for Goodale (for some strange reason). The moment he quits Wascana will be another Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and the successor to Goodale will be lucky to save their deposit. Without Goodale, Wascana would actually be the most NDP-friendly seat in the province.

[DL]

Without Goodale, Wascana would actually be the most NDP-friendly seat in the province.

Or at least, the most Tory-unfriendly--at least from appearances, because it has less rural hinterland than the others.  But it does contain some of Regina's more affluent zones, to the point where the "NDP-friendliness" is counteracted by a St Paul's or (pre-this-past-election) Winnipeg SC tendency.  Which Goodale, being a Liberal, is well equipped to straddle.

But this is Regina not Toronto. Some of the wealthiest old-money enclaves in Regina are in Palliser - and the NDP won those polls by an overwhelming margin.

[DL]

Dufferin is great, it allows all those NDP voters at York to have an NDP MP

There is actually no reason for those NDP voters at York not to have an NDP MP even with the current boundaries for York West riding! York West is actually just about the poorest riding in Ontario and has a very large Black population. That area was a big provincial NDP stronghold from the 1950s to 1995! If the NDP actually targets that seat next time and spends the maximum and has a good candidate - it should be highly winnable. Judy Sgro the Liberal incumbent is not particularly formidable either.

[DL]

A couple of points. Firstly, and I was thinking of this relative to Hamilton, creating a fourth seat may push Niagara West - Glanbrook over and adversely (for the NDP) impact on Welland, so overall, actually create a net no change overall.

Don't forget that about 18 NEW seats are supposed to go to Ontario in the next election. A new seat could be created in Hamilton without having to negatively impact Welland etc...

Someone with time on their hands ought to look at which ridings are the most overpopulated and try to project where these new seats are likely to be.

[DL]

Also, the Conservatives in Canada don't seem to have been taken over (or at least are not as having been taken over) by lunatic fringe religious nutbars like the GOP in the US - so people feel safer voting Conservative in canada than they ever would voting for todays's Republicans in the US

[DL]

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Was that as common in Toronto as Montreal?

Yes, in the late 40s and early 50s there were two Communist members of the Ontario legislature representing what is roughly now the federal riding of Trinity-Spadina. In those days that was the Jewish area of Toronto.