2025 Canadian election

[mileslunn]

Also not only did CPC gain in Northern Ontario, but PPC too did rather well and whether accurate or not view is most PPC votes will go CPC.  I believe in Angus riding and most in Northern Ontario, CPC + PPC exceeded winner.  Off course I don't think you can assume all PPC will go CPC.  That being said Northern Ontario is sort of like Iron Range on American side and GOP has made big gains there either winning or getting north of 40% while under Obama struggled to crack 30%. 

If Tories gain many rural NDP ridings which asides Churchill and Nunavut, looks like most could fall to them, that could be offset by urban gains.  Likewise any Tory gains in suburbs likely more fatigue of government vs. desire to shift rightward so Tories gaining few rural ridings they don't hold won't necessarily help them long term if they continue to flop in urban/suburban ridings outside Alberta & Saskatchewan.

[mileslunn]

Recent polling suggests Trudeau's announcements aren't helping him that much.  I do wonder if public has just tuned out Liberals at this point and announcements or attacks aren't working.  I think if Trudeau was smart, he would step down at end of session, have a leadership race in summer so no leader in place by fall.  And party would be wise to get someone like Mark Carney who is not tied to current government.