Western countries where progressive politics has bright future

[mileslunn]

Right now, it seems right is winning just about everywhere and if a progressive things are pretty bleak. Sure Australia has Albanese and Starmer almost certainly wins big in UK but both are quite centrist and aren't staunch progressives like Trudeau, Ardern, or Marin; latter two whose parties got turfed and former who looks in bad shape.  So wondering where might be.

UK & Ireland while not exactly progressive meccas at moment, are interesting as boomers are fairly conservative in both, but millennials and Gen Z are very progressive in both countries so once boomers die off could see shifts in those two.  By contrast in rest of Europe boomers and millennials are either mixed (France, Germany, Spain, and Netherlands) or lean right (Portugal, Italy, Nordic Countries, Hungary, Israel).

Australia: While seems unlikely they are interesting as urban vs. rural is biggest split today and they are more urbanized than any other Western country.  All of Europe, Canada, US, Israel, and New Zealand all have larger rural populations.  I believe they are one of three OECD countries (South Korea and Japan other two) where more than half the population live in metro areas exceeding a million.  Still it seems class based voting staying strong there which works well for right.

Canada: While things look bad for progressives at moment, Canada's identity is not built on language or ethnicity and many of the values Canadians claim that makes them proud to be Canadian are progressive ones.  I think Trudeau being one of if not the most successful progressive leader in last decade is not a fluke or accident, but representative of how many Canadians hold progressive values.  I don't think Poilievre winning will pull country rightward.  Many say Canada centrist and true in 80s and 90s but that was more out of necessity on economic side.  Mulroney, Chretien and Martin weren't left wing but often their progressive policies like Acid Rain Treaty and opposing Apartheid in South Africa in case of Mulroney, opposing Iraq war in case of Chretien, legalizing gay marriage in case of Martin tend to get more attention than their more conservative ones.  Canada is more urbanized than most although similar to UK & US but higher than most of Europe and less suburban than US and more in large metro areas than UK (UK has a lot more in your smaller and mid sized cities).  It is most educated in terms of those with post secondary degree.  One of the most diverse and prides itself on that.  It has Quebec and usually minority regions be it Scotland, Catalonia, Wallonia or Quebec vote for parties on left.  Living right next to US where right is quite reactionary also is more likely to lead to backlash than if an ocean away.

My pick is long term Canada.  I think Trudeau is more in line with mainstream Canada than Poilievre is and Trudeau's win was not an anomaly but representative of Canadian values.  Ireland is hard to say while UK I kind of think there is a risk once Labour in power for a while younger voters swing right.  Actually wouldn't be surprised if generation after Gen Z (whatever they call it) is Conservative.  Now Canada still will vote Conservative from time to time and possible Liberals move back to center post Trudeau but if that happens I suspect NDP replaces Liberals as main party and much like in Western Canada they unite left and win quite often. 

But like anything a lot will be shaped by events.  UK was staunchly left wing until late 70s on economic policy, but election of Thatcher took it from one of the most socialistic countries in Europe to the most pro free market.  That was off course in reaction to the declining standard of living there so possible if right really messes up could have similar shift leftward or in case of Canada if things get bad maybe moves rightward but I don't see us becoming like UK in the 70s.

[mileslunn]

I think these things come in waves, honestly. Right now, the political right is having a moment like it did around 10 years ago, but back around 2019-21, the left was actually doing pretty well, scoring wins in the Nordic countries, Germany, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, and the US.

As for where progressive/left-of-center politics seems to be set to imminently do well, I could see Ireland being one. Sinn Fein is actually pretty liberal on social issues, I think their main break from typical social democratic parties in Europe is that they're a bit more Euroskeptic.

I think in a few years, progressive politics will see a bit of a comeback.

I think progressives will still win from time to time in Europe but their winning frequency and share of popular vote has been in long term decline.  Sure it is not a straight line and will get rebounds but little sign of turnaround.  I think only reason ever did well was support for welfare state and unlike US, none of right wing parties in Europe talk about gutting welfare state.  Without that issue off the table, Europeans are by and large right leaning thus why left having a tougher time. 

For US, I agree Democrats have bright future but I think actually passing progressive policies will be tough for simple reason GOP will win senate most of the time due to fact each state has two senators irrespective of population and Democrats tend to do better in heavily populated states while GOP in smaller ones.

Ireland is interesting as one trend that seems clear in Europe is millennials tend to vote radically differently than boomers so because social democracy never really took off there, that may be why it does better there than most.  If any common trend amongst millennials, its they go opposite way boomers vote and I believe a lot of that is less left vs. right and more feeling they will be first generation that does worse than their parents and thus want to change that.  UK could see same as UK was quite left wing until 1979 and then shifted right and stayed there as only Labour leader to win was Tony Blair who was super centrist and not really that left wing at all.  So its possible see such shift but Starmer is more like Blair than Corbyn and I think he knows relying on millennials is too risky due to tendency for many to not vote. 

US could with how polarized end having both the most conservative and most progressive places in Western world in not too distant future and you may over time see huge variance by states with West Coast and Northeast being some of the most progressive places in politics on earth while South and more rural states in Midwest, Mountain West, and Plains states being most conservative. 

[mileslunn]

I think it is dangerous to project out when it comes to Progressivism, but the one thing I feel we can say with confidence is traditional Conservatism will die with Gen X. The economic order it was based upon begin to collaspe in the 1990s, and took a body blow in 2008, and is going to be killed off by the twin features of AI and functional illiteracy among Generation Alpha and Younger Zoomers.


Gen X never had well paying manufacturing jobs.

Millenials missed out on being able to turn liberal arts degrees into middle managment roles in finance/law which means they were left with degrees priced for the value of paths which were closed.

Zoomeers are going to see the positions of millenials they would replace eliminated by AI a process which is going to be accelerated by younger zoomers and Gen alpha reading very little and writing like AIs.

Politics over the next 30 years will be a war of succession and while a revolt against conservatism can coincide with progressivism(see the UK) historically liberal and progressive governments have struggled to exploit or control it once in office. There is a decent chance a radical Right takes advantage.

One other economic change worth noting.

Right now the earning potential of the graduate of liberal arts College is probably less than that of an apprentice plumber. That has not happened before and we are going to see a situation where earnings and education cease correlating except at the very top where education is class signaling anyway.

So how will politics function when you have urban graduates of $70k a year schools struggling to make $80k and electricians and plumbers are making $250k in rural areas? How does that change attitudes to taxes and services.

I think on supply side economics and neo-liberalism you may be right.  I don't see top tax rates going back up to levels once were, but I think the days of massive tax cuts probably over but still I think you will continue to see tax cuts just more modest.  I don't think will see much in way of nationalization but on privatization front that will probably be more in cases where countries hit debt wall and only way to avoid default rather than done out of ideology.  

However in mainland Europe, even parties on right support welfare state so I think that is sort of issue where most closely aligned and things like immigration, EU, social policies, environmental is more where divide is.  For UK, I think there was big potential for leftward shift, but Corbyn's thumping in 2019 has made Labour scared to go there and I suspect due to difficult to create new parties in first past post system, if young people feel not being served by Labour they will go Conservative much like you saw in New Zealand in recent election and may see in Canada in 2025.  Millennials were group who helped elect Ardern and Trudeau but both turning/turned on them.  I guess possible Liberal Democrats move to left and win that way.

Now maybe after Labour loses, Conservatives win again, next cycle see big shift left but that is at least 20 years away.  Ireland has Sinn Fein who wants strong leftward shift but they need to form a coalition which will probably limit how much to left.

On issues like immigration and identity politics, I see right dominating and with climate change, illegal immigration likely to go up more making people more inward looking.

Likewise on inequality front, while left could tap into, right especially if of populist variety can to just in a different way.  With education meaning higher earnings while those with arts degrees not doing as well as used to, probably helps right as they can point to those and say they are useless degrees as most arts faculties pretty left wing so if anything right will just use this to say such degree a waste of money.

[mileslunn]

Ireland, Belgium, Thailand, Swaziland, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Guinea

Less certain on Brazil, Mexico, Greece, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Mali, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Qatar, Japan, and Colombia

Edit: oh you meant western?

I meant western but looking at ones above, I see real mix even though some not western.

Ireland - perhaps, but Belgium curious why.  If anything it seems Flanders moving right and Wallonia moving left so just becoming more dysfunctional.  Latin America has often lurched from one end to another and unless economy improves don't see that changing.  Surprised on Greece as while yes about to legalize gay marriage, support for left of centre parties is quite low compared to past and it seems New Democracy is good at playing both sides depending on issue.  They are probably one of your few fiscally conservative but socially liberal type parties left that still does quite well. 

Eastern European ones, maybe on LGBT rights but on immigration I don't see it.  On economic policy, I don't think left vs. right divides in those are as large as they are in Anglosphere.

[mileslunn]

The world has been getting more right wing for the past 50 years -- the longest period of conservative ascendancy since, at the very least, the industrial revolution. While this may come to an end, I fail to see how social democracy will necessarily "win". The populist right doesn't have the answers. So what? No one does. In the meantime, governments will continue to exist.

By what metric has it actually gotten more right-wing? Certainly not on social issues. You were lucky if you were in a place where it was legal to be LGBT for example in 1974, let alone safe.

On economic have definitely moved right.  Maybe not at the height of neo-liberalism like saw in 80s and 90s but generally parties that advocate more activist governments tend to lose more often than not. 

On social issues, it is varied.  On LGBT rights have moved left no doubt but on race relations and immigration I would say opposite.  That being said I also think when minorities are just that and pose no demographic threat, people more tolerant than if seen as being large enough to influence culture.  So perhaps maybe have moved left as in 50s I think most in West didn't want any non-whites whereas now its most okay with them as long as remain a minority.  Canada is the only Western country I can think of where majority would probably be okay with whites becoming a minority.  Opposition to immigration there now is more over high housing prices not changing demographics asides maybe in Quebec.

I also think challenging establishment, academia runs much stronger and not just disagreeing but outright hostility to them.  Being called a Liberal elite 50 years ago wasn't the slur it is today.  Likewise in past you had strong post WWII consensus where all parties largely agreed on major issues and differences were more over details and degree.  Today you have parties doing well and winning that totally want to challenge the consensus.  You can have those on either side, but it is those on right winning, not left.  Sumar, Worker's Party of Belgium, Corbyn, Sanders would be examples on left challenging consensus but all losing.  Sinn Fein if they win and that is big if might be one exception to buck trend.