Countries that legalize Gay Marriage in next decade

[mileslunn]

Currently 35 or 36 countries (disputed whether Nepal allows it or not) allow gay marriage and Greece tomorrow will likely join.  Wondering in next decade what are countries people think have a strong chance of legalizing it.  Below are some of mine.

Americas:

While legal in US, Indian reservations not impacted but I believe most remaining including Navajo Reservation will.

Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten likely do as Netherlands proper has allowed it for over 20 years but still not allowed there.

British Overseas Territories: There are six in Caribbean than still do not and I believe good chance Labour will pass legislation requiring them to do so which they can.

Panama: Of Central American countries this is probably the most likely one to be next.

For South America, I think Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, and maybe Paraguay do.  My guess is by 2034 Guyana and Suriname will be only South American countries to not allow it.

Europe:

Greece is most obvious, but Liechtenstein likely comes later this year too.

Italy: Not under current government but as only Western European country with over 50,000 people to not allow it, only one of two G7 countries not to and soon will be only EU member that joined prior to 2004 to not allow it.  I am pretty sure whenever centre or left regain power, which could be a while they will legalize it. 

Monaco: As a rich small country in Western Europe, surprised have not as wealthy tend to be more liberal on LGBT rights.

San Marino: Will do whenever Italy does but maybe before.

Czechia: Like Estonia it is least religious of Eastern European countries so while may not have numbers now, would be shocked if not allowed in a decade from now.

Asia:

Cyprus: I suspect once Greece does they will follow shortly after, and yes they are technically in Asia.

Israel: They recognize foreign performed ones but since all marriages religious not possible at moment.  But in last vote on issue, lost by only 5 votes so if a non-right wing government wins good chance passes although Arab parties much like right wing likely vote against it.  Only Middle Eastern country where it has a remote chance and without question most pro LGBT country in Middle East

Thailand: Already has legislation so likely legal by end of year.  Most LGBT friendly place in Southeast Asia and with lots of tourism attitudes on issue more western oriented.

Vietnam & Cambodia: Not in next few years but likely next decade.

Hong Kong: Not super religious so likely comes in next decade.

Japan: Over 70% of Japanese want it and government dragging feet on this.  Also one of two G7 countries that doesn't allow it and only that doesn't even allow civil unions.

South Korea: This less sure of, but I suspect probably doesn't happen in next five years but does in next ten.

We could also see some surprises but any surprising ones not listed here likely come from court decisions not legislature or referendum.  Also possible see radical shift in opinions in ways not predicted.

What are people's thoughts on one's listed and any others people think have good likelihood?

[mileslunn]

Other possibility is ECJ rules all EU members must allow it.  Up until recently, only a minority did and now close to evenly split.  But once a clear majority do, I could see ECJ finding a reason to require others.  Already they do require in case of free mobility of labour where one same sex spouse is an EU citizen and one is not, all EU members must allow the non-EU to exercise their treaty rights in being able to live and work freely in EU.  But they do not require they recognize their marriage, just right to freely live and work in any member state they wish. 

Some talk about in India trying again at Supreme court but not sure if court can override earlier ruling.  Court of Americas ruled must require it and that applies to most countries in Americas although most have ignored ruling and a few in Caribbean still ban it outright. 

I think ones by legislature and referendum easier to predict than ones decided by courts as former two you can look at public opinion, latter have to understand constitution as at least in theory is supposed to be based on law not public opinion, although I suspect courts do consider public opinion when making rulings.

[mileslunn]

Greece just legalized it so that is one down although no surprise as there was really never any doubt as to whether legislation would pass or not.  Liechtenstein and Thailand I would say are good bets for rest of year.  And maybe some other pops up due to court ruling but those are only other two that have actual legislation introduced although possible another introduces one later in the year.

[mileslunn]

Ukraine; I would be shocked if they pass it as it tries to cozy up to the rest of Europe. Zelenskyy has begun working on a civil partnership bill so I could see that passing by years end. A 2022 poll had 53% supporting full or limited recognition of same-sex marriage

China; Also wouldn’t be shocked if it pases. They have a sorta of civil Union system under their “guardianship” laws, and Beijing has limited recognition of foreign performed marriages. If you trust public polling there, a majority support it.

I think of former USSR republics, Latvia will probably be next (Estonia already has) while Ukraine being fairly socially conservative is still a ways.  But probably being more western oriented will do so long before Russia if Russia ever does.

For China, I think more likely to happen in Hong Kong and Macau than mainland China but all are possible.

[mileslunn]

Dutch Antilles: I don't think so, but maybe at some point.
Panama: It will happen, but it won't be tomorrow.
Peru: It won't happen this decade, but they  probably pass civil unions at some point.
Bolivia: It would depend on how the politics there envolve.
Venezuela: I could see Maduro legalizing it. If fair elections are done again in the country, it would elect a conservative president at the start (probably Machado). It could probably be passed by the congress elected by the next election after that.
Italy: I think they can pass it by referendum. They should try that way.
Monaco: I don't think so unless the Grimaldis support it for some reason.
San Marino: Probably in the next years.
Czechia: The same.

Dutch Antilles - Depends on court ruling later this year
Panama - Not next five years but maybe next ten
South America - Venezuela followed by Bolivia then Peru and then Paraguay.  Whether next decade or not hard to say but pretty sure at least one will but doubt all four will.  Guyana and Suriname are two pretty sure won't in next decade
Italy - That makes sense as public mostly for it.
Monaco - Considering one can get married within a 20 minute walk and almost all Western European countries allow it, I suspect comes at some point.

I would add while Liechtenstein and Thailand only two with legislation pending, Japan has some court cases and with over 70% for it, I suspect it comes sooner than later.  In fact of G7 countries, almost certain by 2034 all will allow it.  Real question is whether Italy or Japan will be last one.

[mileslunn]

Japan.

Absolutely and polls show over 70% for it thus probably comes sooner than later.  Germany had support at that level as was case where government behind public.  Italy also quite high.  Beyond those two and maybe a few micro countries in Western Europe, I suspect all others either have majority against or bare majority for and still quite polarizing.

[mileslunn]

Japan.

Absolutely and polls show over 70% for it thus probably comes sooner than later.  Germany had support at that level as was case where government behind public.  Italy also quite high.  Beyond those two and maybe a few micro countries in Western Europe, I suspect all others either have majority against or bare majority for and still quite polarizing.

Heres polling from last year

It shows Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong, Cambodia, and India have majorities in favor of gay marriage

Thailand will and Hong Kong unless Beijing blocks it likely does.  Vietnam is a dictatorship so depends on what government feels but probably happens at some point.  Cambodia also a dictatorship too so harder to say.  India skeptical most for it.  Its popular in urban areas, but in rural areas where most live, population is still very conservative.  It certainly won't happen under Modi unless courts force him to but if INC can regain power then it might.