Is Illinois the most demographically representative state?

[mileslunn]

Of the 50 states, it seems Illinois is closest to the demographic average.

The population is 58% NHW, 18% Latino, 14% Black and 6% Asian - very close to the average except slightly more Black.

Foreign born population is 14% - also the national average.  And like the US, Mexico and India are the top countries of birth for immigrants - with four times as many Mexican as Indian immigrants.

It is however more urban and slightly more educated than average.

On race probably true but its much more urban than country thus why more Democrat.  Ohio & Missouri for a long time were quite representative thus why bellwether.  But as GOP gained a lock on white Evangelicals, Missouri drifted away while Ohio drifted away when education became more important in voting patterns.  Both have Black populations close to national average so were racially similar but now whiter as both have a Hispanic population much smaller than national average.

I would say actually Pennsylvania is probably closest to national average even if imperfect.

[mileslunn]

From the Pew Religious Landscape Survey:

National

Evangelical  25%
Mainline Protestant  15%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

Florida

Evangelical  24%
Mainline  14%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  24%

Illinois

Evangelical  20%
Mainline  16%
Catholic  28%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

Ohio

Evangelical  29%
Mainline  17%
Catholic  18%
Non-Christian  4%
None  22%

Pennsylvania 

Evangelical  19%
Mainline  23%
Catholic  24%
Non-Christian  6%
None  21%

Ohio a bit on high side for Evangelical, but I think main reason it has swung GOP is more education gap and thus why Obama won it both times but now no longer in play.

For Catholics Illinois on high side but suspect most live in Chicagoland and in rest of state its probably well below national average, particularly southern parts of state.  Largest ones for Catholics would be Hispanic, Irish, Italian, and Polish and those groups all tend to be mostly in Chicagoland area.  Germans large throughout state but I believe German Catholics tend to be found further north like in Wisconsin and less so as you get in more Evangelical areas.