Why did Bill Clinton win Georgia in 1992? (user search)
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  Why did Bill Clinton win Georgia in 1992? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Bill Clinton win Georgia in 1992?  (Read 1858 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« on: January 18, 2024, 06:56:01 PM »

Clinton was last Democrat to do well with southern whites as back then a white southerner like Clinton or Carter could still do well amongst southern whites.  Since 2000, southern whites go massively GOP asides cities with large number of transplants or college towns.  Likewise in down ballot races, Democrats still competitive amongst southern whites up until 2010 even if solid GOP at presidential level.  By contrast since 2010, most Southern whites vote a straight ticket.

Today Georgia only is competitive thanks to Atlanta metro area growing enough it can outvote rest of state whereas in 1992 only 1/3 of state's population lived in Atlanta metro area, now it is around 50% depending on how far out you extend metro area.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2024, 08:41:56 PM »

The swing from 88 to 92 was pretty wild in GA,

Bush went from nearly 60% to 42% of the vote



Not as wild as Ross Perot got 19% and while some come at expense of Democrats, a sizeable chunk were Bush 88 voters.  After all Ross Perot was more right leaning than left leaning and ironically probably closer to modern GOP than George HW Bush was.  At same time Clinton being a southerner and more centrist than Dukakis helped.  Back then being a southerner made a big difference vs. a northerner.  Big reason Jimmy Carter did quite well in South, even more so than Clinton whereas McGovern and Humphrey flopped badly and even JFK struggled somewhat. 

While no longer case, there was a good 10-15% of southern whites who would vote Democrat if candidate a white southerner, but GOP if Democrat was a northerner.  Back then down ballot southern states were still predominately Democrat and had only swung at presidential level.  Its not like now where Democrat support at all levels is limited to minority-majority areas, college towns, and large metro areas with lots of transplants.  Also interestingly enough Atlanta suburbs, which helped flip state for Biden went heavily for HW Bush while Clinton won many rural white southern counties which Biden didn't.
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