European elections in 2024

[mileslunn]

Obviously there could be other ones not mentioned due to party going early or coalition partner pulling out, but of those scheduled or high likely here are predictions, so interested to here others.

Austria: FPO is leading and Austria may join Italy & perhaps Netherlands as second or third Western European country with a right wing populist.  OVP only party likely to work with them.  SPO not doing great but SPO + Greens + Neos is high 40s so close enough not impossible get over 50% but FPO + OVP is probably more likely.  Maybe some grand possible too if FPO becomes too difficult in demands.

Belgium: With so many parties guessing what government will look like is a crapshot.  Only educated guess is will be at least 5 and will have at least one centre-right and at least one centre-left.  Vlaams Belang on far right and PTB on far left almost certainly will be excluded.  Flanders as usual will favour parties on right while Wallonia parties on left and Brussels a mix of left and centre but right weak.

Croatia: HDZ likely remains in power and likely a right wing government of some sort barring something unexpected.

EU:  ECR and ID likely gain, EPP probably comes in first, S&D likely loses a bit, Greens maybe gain, Left weak, Renew about same.  Likely European parliament is more right wing than it is now.

Finland president: While symbolic likely second round is NCP vs. Greens and NCP probably wins.

German regional:  AfD leading in all three so be interesting if that holds and does AfD enter government in any or not.  If they do, possible CDU drops cordon sanitaire although with three next year all in former East Germany where AfD more accepted than former West Germany, I suspect cordon sanitaire to hold.

Iceland presidential: Likely a landslide for incumbent who is well liked.

Lithuania: LSDP is leading and this may be one of the few bright spots for social democratic parties which are really struggling in Europe.

North Macedonia: VMRO likely wins but Albanian minority parties as usual could play kingmaker.

Portugal: I would give PSD slight edge but unless they drop their opposition to including Chega in coalition, probably some type of grand coalition.  PS also might outperform polls due to vote skewing older who generally are more likely to show up.  Still for first time since 2011, those voting for parties on right (PSD, CSD, IL, and Chega) likely get more than left (PS, BE, CDU, PAN, and Livre).

Romania: PSD may be in lead but Liberals + United Right may oust them.

Russia: This is the only one I am 100% sure of, which is Putin wins a landslide as elections there are rigged.

San Marino: No idea

UK: Okay it is not guaranteed, but since January 2025 is latest possible and no one wants a Christmas election, I believe there is a very high chance UK goes to polls next year.  Labour barring some major mess up should win a majority, possibly a landslide.  Tories will lose almost certainly barring a miraculous comeback that hasn't been seen in ages and quite possibly might have worst election ever.  SNP loses seats in Scotland, Liberal Democrats could go either way, Greens do better vote wise but mostly in left wing urban constituencies which Labour has so not much splitting on left.  Reform Party is a wildcard but even if they collapse and come back to Tories, unlikely to save them, but could make it close and maybe if really lucky deny Labour a majority (they still form government as SNP and LibDems won't support a Tory government).

Ireland: This is even less certain, but 50% go next year.  But Sinn Fein favoured to come in first but still think 50/50 whether they form government or not.  Left wing parties may get a majority but if fall short and have to rely on independents, then I think Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have easier path.  Likewise Sinn Fein being frontrunner will come under more scrutiny than last time so possible during campaign their numbers don't hold.  At same time, they will run a full slate unlike 2020 so won't get short changed due to lack of candidates.

Netherlands: No election likely but still unknown who forms government.  Most likely outcome is Geert Wilders becomes PM and it is a PVV + NSC + BBB coalition with VVD providing support but not joining.  I get impression Dutch don't want Frans Timmermans as PM so PVD/GL unlikely.  D66, CDA, and SP did so poorly probably better to use time in opposition to regroup as first two especially D66 I could see bouncing back if in opposition.  Also possible Omtzigt emerges as compromise PM.  A lot will depend on how willing Wilders is to compromise is many things like Nexit referendum, banning Mosques are likely no go with other potential partners.

Interested in anyone else's predictions.