United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[mileslunn]

Probably in 2024 also as isn't the latest in early January 2025 and that would mean a campaign over Christmas holidays which I don't think most want.  My guess is Labour wins but polls tighten and Tories still get about 1/3 of popular vote as many traditional supporters come home, but not enough to save them.  However I still suspect most rural constituencies stay blue but they lose most urban, suburban and mixed urban/rural including even some posh seats in London they always win.  Maybe over simplifying but my guess is any constituency that includes an urban area over 50K turns red, doesn't stays blue.  Obviously exceptions but I think tipping point in size of community will be around 50K not 500k like it was in 2019 and most Brits live in communities over 50K (I include go by entire built up area not local government) whereas only about 1/3 live in urban areas over 500k.

[mileslunn]

Unlike some, I think Labour wins majority although not guaranteed, but I believe they will fall short of 400 seats and I think Tories likely to lose but still win around 200 seats (which for them is really bad).  Now true possible it is an off the charts landslide but lets remember Labour at times in 2008 and 2009 was in even worse shape yet while lost in 2010, they rallied back much of their traditional support.  Reason I think this happens is you have some lifelong Tories who feel party needs to lose, but at same time cannot stomach voting Labour so once clear they will lose, that sort of gives them permission to return home.

[mileslunn]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak as he wants to reduce deficit and opposes most tax hikes (a few like taxing private schools and non-dom, but none that are big revenue raisers) so wondering if that is allowing Labour to win in areas wouldn't otherwise.  Likewise could Greens do well in strongholds where some may feel he is too pro business and not change they want?

[mileslunn]

Some are suggesting Starmer not much different than Sunak

Some people say all sorts of things, doesn't mean they are true.

True although opposition to higher taxes on wealthy in all forms probably doesn't go over too well with more left wing types but may help with swing voters and also with tax brackets frozen probably not necessary (would be if indexed).  Likewise budgeting rules while smart economically, may upset some who want bigger spending.  I do think Starmer though is pretty centrists and right now that is probably best you can do.  More progressive types like Ardern and Marin lost, Sanchez only hung on by cozying up with separatists and Trudeau is well behind in polls at moment so does seem less appetite for a strongly progressive government.  Sinn Fein I guess leading in polls but still may have trouble forming government or have to water down policies.  Ironically on right, more ideological ones doing quite well globally.