2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[mileslunn]

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

Which is why the "Bloc bloc" was versatile enough to pivot in the Mulroney Tory direction in '84 and '88 *and* the Le Bon Jack direction in '11.  But when neither option really fits the bill, and with the "federal Liberal universal" of PET days extinct, they default to, well, the Bloc...

Which reminds me: as an outsider, I can't help but suspect that the perception that Quebec nationalists were flocking to Layton, that Quebec NDP candidates were closet separatists, etc. helped depress NDP support with blue-collar Anglos in a lot of places despite their surge. One wonders if at some point the Liberals might try to raise the same spectre against Poilievre. It would be much, much riskier for them than it ever was for the Tories, but desperate governments facing almost certain defeat do silly things, and from a cynical Liberal POV, some groundwork has arguably already been laid by the focus on Bill 21 etc.

That is, *if* there's evidence that Poilievre's actively setting the foundation for a Mulroney/Layton-type breakthrough.  But yeah, the depressed Anglo support thing--it's a reason why the 2nd best QC riding for the NDP in '08 (Westmount-Ville Marie) *wasn't* among the Orange Crush pickups in '11...

I thought that was because Westmount is fairly wealthy, and thus reluctant to vote NDP.

Well, you're right re the above reference to "blue-collar Anglos"--but Westmount was a relatively limited part of the riding, and Jack Layton certainly wasn't devoid of champagne-socialist appeal.  Or one would assume that if Westmount were more like Outremont, the NDP would have done better there.  (Likewise re the surprise NDP pickup of NDG-Lachine in '11: it was "Franco" Lachine--usually an island of relative Bloc-friendliness--that tipped the riding; "Anglo" NDG remained Liberal;  However, when it comes to *present-day* federal NDP support in the province, the present NDG-Westmount is one of the stronger spots--though it might take a "Jill Andrew St Paul's" circumstance for it to actually make the jump.)

Even Jill Andrews lost Forest Hill.  I think when talking about wealthy, we need to differentiate between top 10% who are upper middle class and top 1% who are rich.  Former have lots working in public sector, lawyers, professors, tech workers and those types tend to vote for progressive parties.  Top 1% includes doctors but also business owners and CEOs and latter two I think tend to vote Conservative.  To know how top 1% votes, you have to look at poll by poll breakdown not riding as a whole as in no riding are they numerous enough to make much difference.  Big reason Horgan won in upper middle class Lower Mainland ridings is unlike NDP in 90s who raised taxes on anyone in top 10%, Horgan only did on top 2%.

After losing after tax hikes, left has generally gotten smarter in ensuring tax hikes only hit very top, not upper middle class.  So I think when we talk about wealthy going NDP, we are more referring to upper middle class professionals, not your Bay Street CEO type.

[mileslunn]

I also think when people say working class much like how I mentioned with wealthy, it depends on definition.  I think NDP still does well with minimum wage workers and jobs like long term care workers, servers, bar tenders, cleaning staff, retail clerks as those tend to be more urban, more likely to be female, often younger and long term and cleaning staff often immigrants.

Where struggling is more in jobs like forestry, mining, manufacturing, construction which are heavily unionized but tend to be in smaller urban centres or sometimes rural.  Fairly white, very male dominated, and often over 50.  These jobs also if you look at pay not image are solid middle class as most of those pay wages above what average Canadian makes.  And its latter not former where you are seeing Conservatives gaining from NDP.  Most ridings mentioned of blue collar shifting away have lots in latter category whereas in former its more your urban core ridings which are Liberal/NDP and Tories a distant third. 

Likewise with unions as we saw in Ontario election seems a strong divide between public and private sector unions.  Public sector unions for obvious reasons are definitely not voting Conservative.  But some private sector ones are and today of union members in Canada, more work in public sector than private.  Public sector is 70% unionized, while private sector it is only 15%.