Justin Trudeau vs. Andrew Scheer in the US: who would win?

[mileslunn]

Probably Andrew Scheer with around 52-53%, but that is on caveat that run on same platform.  Scheer being in US would probably run on a much more right wing than he did.  For example he would probably promise to outlaw abortion or severely restrict it which would be political suicide in Canada.  Trudeau by contrast would probably be more centrist and not as left wing as he has been in Canada.

[mileslunn]

Probably Andrew Scheer with around 52-53%, but that is on caveat that run on same platform.  Scheer being in US would probably run on a much more right wing than he did.  For example he would probably promise to outlaw abortion or severely restrict it which would be political suicide in Canada.  Trudeau by contrast would probably be more centrist and not as left wing as he has been in Canada.

Screer with his stances now would be a moderate Democrat or maybe a liberal Republican, Trudeau would definitely be on the more left wing of the Democrats, I’d say Screer wins a lot more with his stances as they are. The reason the GOP struggles is bc they have toxic branding not because there’s a lack of “center right” voters.

That assumes they would not adjust their stances.  Scheer much like Harper is more right wing than he ran as and watered down his ideas in order to be electable.  In US, he would run on his true principles.  Trudeau yes is definitely more to left, but probably comparable to Elizabeth Warren so left of Biden but not as left wing as Bernie Sanders. 

I think in US, country is quite polarized so even a moderate Tory couldn't get 60%.  Unlike in past center is really shrinking so while being moderate may mean winning while more right wing losing, we are talking at margins.  Landslides like 1964, 1972, and 1984 are things of the past and won't happen in today's environment irrespective of candidates and viewpoints.

[mileslunn]

The better looking one. People STILL overrate the "Democrats would be conservative" in blank country. Mostly coming from people outside here.

In Canada, Democrats would be like NDP, Liberals, and former Progressive Conservatives uniting against Reform party pre-merger for comparison.  Someone like Manchin or Gottenheimer would be like a typical former Progressive Conservative.  Pelosi, Schumer, and Warren a Trudeau Liberal while Biden more of a Martin/Chretien type and same with the Clintons.  AOC and Bernie Sanders would probably be NDP supporters if in Canada.  On Republican side a few like Kasich or Flake would probably be old PC types, but most have left the party of this variety.  Scheer on spectrum comparable to Romney, Mike DeWine, or John McCain, not Trump.   Derek Sloan, Randy Hillier, or Maxime Bernier would be more your Trump like politicians north of the border.

[mileslunn]

If they had a vote in the US, I'm sure both Harper and Scheer would have voted for Trump.  O'Toole probably Biden. 

I think Harper would have done a write-in much like George W. Bush did.  He was more like him than Trump although I think he would have voted GOP down ballot.  Whereas O'Toole only would have voted for more moderate GOP types.  I am guessing probably would have supported Kasich in 2016 primary while Scheer probably Cruz and Harper probably Rubio. 

[mileslunn]

Scheer. Trudeau would be considered too left-wing for supporting universal health care. Sad, but true.

Ironically Canada and US are on opposite ends here.  Most developed countries unlike US have a universal health care system (US is only industrialized country without one) while Canada actually tries to ban private competition for basic health care while almost all others allow a small parallel private system with limits but don't try to ban it outright like Canada does.  Just having one private clinic or hospital where people can pay is very controversial in Canada whereas in most other countries, as long as it doesn't undermine public system, people are okay with that.  In fact what right wing groups like Fraser Institute are pushing for in Canada is norm in Europe and Australia while in US left wing groups pushing for largely same thing. 

Now true Canadian system is less socialistic than Europe in sense it is not as comprehensive in coverage, but polls show idea of expanding to include pharmacare and universal dental care very popular and only thing holding back government is high cost and fact tax hikes to fund it would be controversial. 

Even in Europe, Trudeau's stance on private health care is comparable to many hard left parties not centre-left.  He wants to shut down all private diagnostic clinics which exist in other countries with universal health care without issue.  At same time he is probably politically savvy enough he would water down his position if running in US.  Or it would be blocked by congress and would start with single payer like Sanders advocates but then strike some deal in between.  At same time unlike Biden, Trudeau is not very good at working with those with different viewpoints so that might be a problem for him.