How do the American and Canadian populations overlap in their political spectrum?

[mileslunn]

There is some overlap, but median voter in US is definitely more right wing than Canadian.  Only around 15-20% in Canada would vote Republican if in US and some Republican positions like opposition to universal health care would be political suicide here.  Likewise being pro-life is much riskier and on things like gun control, concealed carry would be a non-starter.

For left, Democrats have usually been similar to Liberals although Trudeau has moved somewhat to left, but not as left as Bernie Sanders or AOC.  Nonetheless AOC's policies wouldn't have majority support in Canada, but a much larger minority would support her policies than in US.  Maybe only 20% in US support her policies while in Canada probably closer to 40%. 

Also even in popular vote, Tories often get in low 30s and only in the bluest states does GOP get that low while 40% is the ceiling for Tories while for GOP their floor is around 45-46% (which outside Prairies is unthinkable for Tories)

I think a more interesting, would be looking overseas, how does Canada compare to other developed countries.  US is clearly more right wing, but if comparing to Australia, New Zealand or any Western European country, you could probably make a strong argument both ways of Canada being more left wing or more conservative depending on what policies you focus on.   True right now Canada more left wing than most as Trudeau is one of the more left wing leaders out there, but leaders come and go so better to look at long term trends for comparison not leader of the day.  Boris Johnson is to right of Biden but that doesn't mean UK is more conservative just as Harper was more conservative than Obama.  At same time Harper never got above 40% while McCain get 46% and Romney 47% so one could argue in Canada, Tories can win on splits while in US they have to get close to half the vote to win.  Yet despite having to get a much larger share of the popular vote, GOP still has a better track record of winning than Canadian Tories do.  With UK, Boris Johnson got a smaller share of the popular vote than Biden did never mind Jeremy Corbyn was a lot further left so pretty sure Trump would have won against someone that left wing.

[mileslunn]

US median quite a bit to the right of Canada. 

The left boundary is harder to determine.  To what extent is the Canadian media voter further left because it has a lot more leftists/socialists vs. fewer on the hard right?

I would say its more fewer on hard right.  On hard left probably not a lot different in numbers, but they are more spread out while in US most are hard left are very concentrated in a few locations that viewpoints are radically different than rest of country, otherwise left wing bubbles.  I think more on standard left wing ideas, like larger welfare state, raising taxes on rich, larger public sector there is less pushback so parties on left more willing to go through while in US Democrats due to past results are scared to go there worried they will pay a big price politically.  Whereas in Canada that doesn't seem to be case and whether they win or lose is more based on whether it is a time for change election or stick with incumbent type.

[mileslunn]

I would also argue geography plays a big role.  Middle part of US which is akin to Prairies makes up a much larger share of population while Canada's population is more heavily concentrated on West Coast and Great Lakes-St. Lawrence than US is.  It would be like Northeast and West Coast containing 75% of US population and if that was the case, US would be a lot more liberal.  Also Quebec and Southern US have no equivalents in other country so that has a big impact.  Southern US really pulls country rightward and had Confederacy won the Civil War, I suspect gap between two countries would be much smaller.  At same time Quebec is totally its own culture and while not exactly left wing per se, generally minority groups tend to vote for centre-left parties nationally as more likely to protect language and culture.  Same reason Tories in UK struggle in Scotland while Popular Party struggles in Catalonia and Basque country in Spain or parties on right do poorly in Wallonia in Belgium.  Those areas aren't that much more left wing than country as whole, but vote that way as left more sensitive to their interests.  Quebec is very much that way and US has no such equivalent.

Also with rural, I find right has advantage in high density rural areas (over 50 people per square km) but not blowouts (rural Southern Ontario, rural Northeast, most of rural Europe), blowouts in your low density rural areas (1-10 people per square km) i.e. Prairies in Canada, Plains and Mountain West in US, while lean left in sparsely populated rural areas (under 1 person per square km) so much of Northern Canada and for latter US outside Alaska has no equivalent.  Northern parts of Norway, Sweden, and Finland are a lot like Northern Canada; they tend to vote heavily for parties on left for same reason.  Rely heavily on government to provide services and infrastructure.

Also there is image too, Americans like to think of themselves as the best in everything so naturally right with its emphasis on patriotism has advantage here.  Canadians tend to like to think of themselves as compassionate, polite, and for the little guy thus advantage left there. 

Some things like health care might also just be fear of alternative.  There is no question Americans are more individualistic and tend to fear bigger government more than Canadians, but I suspect if most actually experienced universal health care, there would be far less pushback.  Likewise if most Canadians saw a private one, they might disagree but wouldn't freak out like they do now as I think a lot in both countries tend to assume things are much worse for others' health care than it really is.

But on other social programs, US has most that Canada has, after all we have CPP they have Social Security, both have public education so really only on health care is big difference.  On taxes, generally in both countries most want lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while higher for wealthy.  Its more a matter of degree as support for tax cuts to middle and lower income not quite as high in Canada as US while support for taxing rich more is higher in Canada than US, but has majority support in both.  In essence, in both countries most want lower taxes for people making their income, while others to pay more. 

On guns as mentioned yes a huge difference, although most Americans support an assault weapons ban while in Canada, Conservatives are against it and gun lobby although represents a much smaller chunk of the population; you still have our versions of NRA such as CCFR and NFA.  But they represent a much smaller chunk of the population than they do in US although in both countries represent a minority.  Just in US a big enough minority you can win pandering to them, in Canada too small that pandering to them ensures you lose. 

So in summary, there is a lot of overlap, but also some big differences.  If you ranked Canadians from most right wing to most left wing someone on the 20th percentile most right wing would be around 40th percentile in US and median voter in Canada probably somewhere in 30-40th percentile in US most left wing and vice versa.

[mileslunn]

Also there is image too, Americans like to think of themselves as the best in everything so naturally right with its emphasis on patriotism has advantage here.  Canadians tend to like to think of themselves as compassionate, polite, and for the little guy thus advantage left there. 

I think this is one of the best analyses of Canada's liberal tendency. Canadian patriotism is pretty left wing and somewhat anti-American. If you ask a random Canadian why they love Canada so much, the answer will probably consist of universal healthcare, multiculturalism, and peacekeeping.

I mean, universal healthcare and multiculturalism are hardly unique to Canada, and we haven't been a peacekeeper country in decades. But this is how Canadians see themselves. The stereotype of the polite do-gooder Canadian isn't just how Americans see us, it's how we see ourselves. I think this alone makes left-wing politics more appealing to Canadians.

The lazy analysis that I see from people on both sides of the 49th parallel is "Canadians are just more left wing than Americans". I think the median Canadian is to the left of the median American, but full-on leftists are as rare in Canada as they are in the US. There are elements of the American left that are pretty far to the left by Canadian standards, if Canada was just uniformly to the left of the US, you'd see Canadian politicians calling for the abolition of capitalism. I mean, Warren and Sanders were campaigning on workers' representation on corporate boards, something that not even the NDP runs on. Democratic socialism, as in achieving socialism through democratic means, seems much more mainstream in the US than it is up here.

Broadly speaking, I think Canada's political culture isn't shifted to the left compared to American politics, but rather "zoomed in" to the centre-left of American politics

How do you think Canada would react if the United States adopted Universal Healthcare, made Puerto Rico a state (a smaller Quebec), and heavily downsized its military and made them into a peacekeeping force, All in the same year?

On universal health care, reaction would its about time.  Still even if US does go to universal health care, they are still likely to tolerate a lot more private involvement than Canadians tolerate.  It would likely be a mixed system not a government monopoly.  Now if they cover things like prescription drugs and dental care, which we don't, that would only increase pressure to follow.  One barrier is due to living next to US, both our corporate and top marginal tax rates can be a bit higher, but not so high it leads to companies and people with money leaving for US so that somewhat limits what we can do.  If US raises one or other, that gives us more room to raise them too.

As for downsized military, I think its more people don't like US starting foreign wars like Iraq, size of military most could care less about.  On Puerto Rico joining, doesn't make much difference as only 1% of population so much smaller impact. 

[mileslunn]

Here's a question:  what percentage of Americans would find the Conservative Party of Canada "beyond the pale"?

US is far more polarized so guessing close to 40% would find Tories too right wing to even consider in US.  In Canada it is 60%.  Big difference is base would probably be in upper 40s rather than 25-30% it is in Canada.

[mileslunn]

In this thread, people seemed to think Colorado was "too liberal" to be compared to Alberta:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=449624.0

Would the Canadian Tories be "beyond the pale" in Colorado or in another "blue since Obama" state like Virginia?

No they could win Colorado and Virginia.  More importantly Trump still got over 40% in both states so if you had Canadian composition of parties Tories would win both as almost all Trump supporters would go Tory plus a small minority of moderate Biden supporters.  By contrast more liberal Biden supporters would go mostly Liberal, but enough would go NDP to split votes as well as Tories probably moderate enough they could get over 50% in both states.  Considering Tories in good elections get over 40% in BC and Ontario, I don't think there is a single state in US where Tories aren't capable of topping 40% and only a handful where over 50% is a stretch.