BC Election on October 24th

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet coming out later today and Forum just before closing.  I think at this point, you would need a bigger miss than 2013 for BC Liberals to win which I don't see happening.  Not to mention, leaders with over 50% approval ratings almost never get defeated and all polls put Horgan north of 60%.  As the old saying goes, governments defeat themselves and clearly NDP is a long ways from that point. 

I did however get a BC Liberal e-mail saying their internal polls tied but I think as Joe Biden would say, that is a bunch of malarkey.  They are probably just saying that to motivate volunteers.  I am sure NDP in Saskatchewan will say something similar on Sunday and so will GOP in US.  Real question is how big a majority.  If NDP has a bad night I could see them getting only 50 seats while if a good night they might crack 70 seat mark.  For BC Liberals, I could see them falling as low as 12 seats under worse case scenario, but as high as 35 seats under best case scenario.

Personally I think the tighter is preferable as often when parties feel they are invincible, they get arrogant and do stupid things.  Also at 35 seats, would give BC Liberals more choices for whom to lead them into 2024.  If NDP feels 2024 is in the bag, they are not likely to do as good a job as if they feel they could potentially lose the election.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out and it shows Horgan is going to win a yuge majority, its going to be yuge.

And here’s that final #bcpoli number

⁦
@bcndp
⁩ - 51%
⁦
@bcliberals
⁩ - 31%
⁦
@BCGreens
⁩ - 16%

[mileslunn]

Surprised there isn't an 801 club yet?  I get impression a lot of BC Liberals, especially those not part of old guard want Wilkinson gone and will be pushing for him to resign tonight as results roll in.  In an internal e-mail, they claim internals show them tied, but either their internals are massively off or just saying that to motivate volunteers but know they are going to lose.  If internals are saying this, I would love to post election see how they got that data.  Even if we assume poor millennial turnout and high over 55, NDP is still ahead.  In fact it appears amongst over 55 crowd which has been reliably BC Liberal in past as well as male voters, NDP has now won them over.

I essentially see coalitions working this way since 2001:

2001:  BC Liberals were federal Liberals + PCs + Canadian Alliance while NDP just NDP

2005, 2009 and 2013: BC Liberals were federal Tories plus right half of federal Liberals while BC NDP were NDP + left half of federal Liberals.  Since federal Tories usually outperformed NDP, that is why they had the advantage.

In 2017 same thing but most federal Liberal/BC Liberal voters were people who voted Tory in 2011 but liberal in 2015 thus stuck with BC Liberals.  Most who supported federal Liberals in 2011 and BC Liberals in 2013 had swung over to NDP.

Today BC Liberals are really just federal Tory voters while most federal Liberals have joined federal NDP voters in voting BC NDP.  Since federal Liberals are more left wing than in past and BC NDP more centrist than in past, not too surprising.

A lot of centrist voters didn't exactly embrace BC Liberals' pro free enterprise attitude, they just felt they were better for economy but were open to a more moderate NDP.  Since NDP this time is less ideological than past three times in government, much of that group has switched to NDP.  BC Liberals can win this group back, but its no longer a given and will have to work for it.  By same time NDP needs to understand like any new voters to coalition, they can easily leave.  They should look at Harper in 2011 who win many traditional Liberal voters over, but since 2015 they have returned.  Or Boris Johnson in UK who won a lot of traditional Labour supporters over but polls suggest many are returning.

[mileslunn]

Since you brought up a BC Lib internal, now is probably a good time to talk about how BC won't count all their votes until after polls close in the US. The mail in ballots should be anywhere from 25%-35% of the final total, and they can't be opened tonight because BC law is worse than NY. The mail ballots could favor the NDP, meaning that the results tonight may favor the Libs by more than the end result.

Absolutely.  Whatever BC Liberals get tonight, you can be sure it will go down once mail in ballots counted.  I would say any riding BC Liberals take tonight by less than 5% will probably get overturned once mail in ballots counted.

[mileslunn]

I did hear from a number of sources BC Liberals internals are much more optimistic and expect them to win 34-40 seats, 37 or 38 most likely.  I think they are making same mistake Romney made in assuming a lower turnout than it will be, but I guess we will find out soon or at least get an idea.  My guess is still BC Liberals get in 20s although wouldn't be surprised due to NDP strength in mail in ballots BC Liberals finish tonight in low 30s and fall into 20s after mail in ballots counted.

[mileslunn]

In terms of political spectrum, BC has changed alright although I think NDP in 90s had a very different coalition that today.  Back then it was more a union based one and since unions were quite militant, that led to strong class based politics much like you still see in Australia.  In fact most places have moved away from that and BC was just a latecomer.  Australia is perhaps only place I can think of that still votes on class based lines.  Even UK and New Zealand have abandoned this.  Today NDP is a more diverse, educated, younger, urban, and progressive coalition.  It includes a lot of low income types struggling to get by, but also many well paid skilled workers in areas like tech sector. 

BC Liberals are less your old money and more your rural resource and small business types.  In past, big money in BC didn't care for social conservatives, but they accepted them if that is what it took to get their tax cut.  You still have some of that which is why West Vancouver-Capilano and Vancouver-Quilchena stuck with BC Liberals, but a much smaller subset than during Campbell era.  Today most well to do are high skilled university grads like engineers, doctors, and in tech sector and for them tax rates are not top priority.  Sure they like lower taxes, but there are many things more important so as long as taxes don't get too crazy, they will look at other issues they care about.  Whereas with old money, tax rates was their top issue. 

I don't think BC Liberals are dead by any means and eventually people will fatigue of NDP, but I do think idea pro free enterprise coalition when united always wins is clearly over.  BC Liberals essentially need to define who they are and what they stand for.  Up until now its mostly been what they are not and what they are against and that won't work in future.  They need stand for something rather than just against.  I also think if Trump loses badly, O'Toole loses next election badly and Kenney loses in 2023 while Ford sticks to his more moderate tone and wins again in 2022, this will be a strong signal to right of party that their views are a dead end.  BC Liberals unlike federal Tories still have a long history of winning and those who are more moderate if those things happen will have a stronger hand to tell the more right wing elements to go.

Other solution is like Australia and Germany is split in two, but don't run candidates against each other.  In interior, only run a Conservative candidate while only Liberal in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island and then form a coalition.  Has its risks but at least that might be the long term way to go.

[mileslunn]

So what direction will the BC Liberals go?

That is a tough one and actually I think best to wait and see how things unfold.  I think pandemic has really pushed people leftward so I don't see right wing policies being winnable anywhere.  Yes right wing governments like Ford who are in power can win, but right now no one cares about tax cuts or deficits.  However once bills come due, I believe fiscal conservatism will make a comeback, but just how big and how far is anyone's guess.

One thing that is clear, BC Liberals largely held onto those who vote federal Tory asides from maybe Peace River country and Fraser Valley where some went BC Conservative and in latter was fatal while in former didn't matter as Peace River country hates NDP and is more Albertan than British Columbian in politics (really it should join Alberta).  However, it looks like those who voted federal Liberal and BC Liberal in past swung over to NDP.

I don't think BC Liberals need to be as left as Trudeau, that will ensure a split, but I do think they need to yes still be for lower taxes, pro business, and balanced budgets, but at same time have a strong climate plan, a plan to deal with affordability, and a poverty plan.  Millennials due to high cost of living are facing challenges boomers did not and thus past policies of winning based on class no longer really works.  True the very rich still voting BC Liberal thus why West Vancouver-Capilano and Vancouver-Quilchena stayed BC Liberal at over 50%, but your upper middle class areas like Vancouver-False Creek, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, and North Vancouver-Seymour have flipped.

BC Liberals need to stand for something not against.  Reality is BC Liberals were really an uneasy coalition of people with a common enemy.  A lot like Democrats in US now where you have Lincoln Project and John Kasich types in same party as AOC and Bernie Sanders due to common enemy.  Since NDP hasn't been a disaster like 90s that is no longer feasible.  But if the party finds a common cause to unite people for, its possible to build another big tent coalition.  NDP did this not by uniting all those who BC Liberals (after all they won over many traditional BC Liberal supporters), but uniting people who felt they delivered good governance.

[mileslunn]

Are there any provincial NDP/federal Tory voters?

A few but not many.  Now it depends what election you are referring to.  If you mean people who voted Tory in 2011 and NDP provincially in 2020, yes lots of them.  It appears to me most Tory 2011 - Liberal 2015 voters stuck with BC Liberals in 2017, but then flipped to NDP in 2020.  Tories got 46% in 2011 so while no doubt voters who weren't of age and those moving into province probably make replicating that a little harder; I doubt province has changed that much.  So its likely amongst that group some did vote NDP.

I think the Tory base who always vote Tory, few vote NDP provincially.  But amongst those who are swing voters and sometimes vote Tory federally but not all the time; many voted NDP.  That group are largely pragmatists who don't really care about ideological labels and are more concerned with good governance and good policies, so will vote for parties on both left and right depending on leader and platform. 

[mileslunn]

At some point, it's pretty hard to imagine Justin Trudeau supporters and Stockwell Day supporters staying under one tent, particularly with cultural fault lines replacing class ones.

Agreed divide is pretty big, but I do think divide always existed and it was more common enemy that kept them under one tent.  So when NDP overstays welcome can form again, but may have trouble making such a long term winning coalition as opposed to just winning intermittently. 

[mileslunn]

This was shared on my FB:
"Based on the preliminary BC provincial results, I've computed the regional vote-shares by party, based on the Valid Ballots shown (general and advance). The number of mail-in ballot requests are also shown... " I don't think Elections BC released the number of returned Mail-ins yet.

By interesting to see comparisons with 2017, 2013, and 2009, particularly in Lower Mainland.  Drop in BC Liberal support there actually quite big over past decade.  They lost a number of ridings they were considered safe a decade ago and which they won by over 30 points in 2009.  By same token many swing or close ridings in 2009, BC Liberals lost by over 30 points.  Interior much less of a swing, if anything increased in 2013 and 2017 and only a slight drop this time.  Vancouver Island while never strong for BC Liberals, also fallen a lot and now in third place. 

[mileslunn]

How likely are we to see a split it in the BC Liberals?

We know Bennett in Kootenay East would likely side with a more conservative minded Party; The biggest competition to the BCLiberals in Peace River North and Peace River South is already the BCConservatives (both won over 30% of the votes there)

A split might not necessarily be bad either; we have now the BCNDP with a more natural ally in the BC Greens if we ever get to a minority situation again. The BCLiberals do not have such an ally... yet. Is their a chance we see these three MLAs become sitting BCConservatives? (say if the BCLiberals new leadership try and maintain this more moderate right-of-centre approach)

Depends on who is next leader and how NDP performs.  Better NDP performs more likely split will be.  Worse they perform less likely.  Its very easy to unite people that have little in common when you have a common enemy.  Much tougher when you lack that.  Democrats have people all the way from your Lincoln Project type Republicans to hardcore progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders.  Normally you wouldn't see people like John Kasich and AOC supporting same party.  Only happening because of common enemy.  Thus if NDP as hated by 2024 as in 90s, that will be easy to do.  But if Horgan keeps his current approval, much tougher.