DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[mileslunn]

What are the chances of the Blue Bloc pulling off an upset similar to what we saw a few days ago in Australia?  Red Bloc has been leading in the polls for a long time, but in some countries, although not always (in Spain right underperformed polls) right tends to underperform.  Granted Red Bloc has a bigger lead than Labor did in Australia and there is less than two weeks left but still any chance Blue Bloc could pull off an upset?

[mileslunn]

What time do the polls close at, and are there any exit polls?  How quickly do results usually come in?  Also is there a chance of an upset like Australia where the Blue Bloc pulls off a win despite almost all polls suggesting it won't.

[mileslunn]

DR's exit poll shows 90-75, not sure if it's the same one.

and that doesnt count the four Greenland/Faroe seats that are mostly Red right?

Greenland is probably red, don't know about Faeroes, I think they often tend to vote opposite of who is in power locally so went red last time as Blues governed Faeroe Islands, but might go blue this time as Reds governing Faeroe Islands, someone from there could weigh in.

[mileslunn]

Looks like a slight V overperformance and a slight S underperformance, then?

Usually right tend to overperform polls and left under, my guess is easier to poll urban areas than rural especially smaller communities as well as older voters more likely to show up than younger albeit turnout is high enough less of an issue.  Mind you Danish People's Party underperformed so perhaps some went over to Venestre and both Socialist and Red-Green Alliance seem to have done a bit better, but still within margin of error.  Now if as big an error as in Australia, it should be a long night.  I believe it is around 54% reds to 46% Blues.

[mileslunn]

With results so far although early and largely rural, any chance of a repeat of what happened in Australia where Blue Bloc wins?  Are they doing as well as people would expect in areas reporting or are they outperforming.

[mileslunn]

Turnout could end up lower than in 2015. In Tønder nomination district, turnout was 81.04%, compared to 84.65% in 2015

Turnout seems to be lower almost everywhere. Disappointing...

Advanced voting seems to be more common everywhere.  With more sophisticated voter identification, parties tend to put a lot of effort into getting their supporters out to the polls ahead of election day so probably most committed voters are showing up early while softer ones waiting until e-day.

[mileslunn]

At this point looks like Red Bloc will win as Social Democrats have pulled ahead, my guess is urban polls take longer to come in thus why looked good for Blue Bloc at first.  Still will be interesting to see who meets threshold and what type of coalition is formed.

Although does look like Blue Bloc will outperform polls.  Probably something along the lines of 52-48 or 53-47 I am guessing when everything is counted.

[mileslunn]

What is the current Red Bloc vs. Blue Bloc results?  Likewise since Blocs are fairly fixed but with differences how long should it take before a government is formed?

[mileslunn]

How long will it take to form government?  I've noticed in most European countries it tends to take a few months so with only two pre-determined blocs will it be quicker here or will it drag on for several months?