2020 downballot predictions

[mileslunn]

Is this for 2020 or 2018.  For 2020, I see the following.

If Democrats win the White house, they will likely hold if not gain seats, but if Trump is re-elected I suspect GOP will gain and possibly retake it narrowly.

For senate, the map is far more favourable to the Democrats as mostly GOP as opposed to Democrats up for re-election, but still retaking it will be much easier if they win the white house as they only need to flip four seats as opposed to five if they lose (note I am assuming Florida remains in GOP column once counting is done which is likely, Mississippi goes GOP in the runoff which is pretty much a near certainty, and Alabama is a GOP pick-up in 2020, also highly likely).  Democrats could lose Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire if they bomb in the presidential election but unlikely.  Their best chances for gains are Arizona, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia and maybe Texas if there is a large blue wave.  Since voting split tickets is a lot less common today I suspect whatever way each state goes for president is probably how it will go for senate unless super close.  Thus winning the white house greatly improves their chances, while if Trump is re-elected probably will make few if any gains.

For governor races, I think anything from 25-25 to 30-20 in favour GOP is likely.  Next year, I cannot see the Democrats picking up Kentucky or Mississippi, but could see the GOP picking up Louisiana.  In 2020, unless they get a strong candidate, I think Montana will go GOP, but they do have a history of splitting tickets more so than other states.  North Carolina could flip too depending on overall results, while New Hampshire and Vermont are the only ones I could see the Democrats picking up assuming the incumbents don't seek re-election.  Of the outstanding races, I am going on the assumption both Florida and Georgia go GOP which at this point I think the Democrats picking up enough outstanding votes to win those for 2018 seems extremely unlikely.