What are your favourite ever elections? (user search)
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  What are your favourite ever elections? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What are your favourite ever elections?  (Read 3733 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,837
Canada


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« on: March 22, 2018, 08:34:44 PM »

I would say some of my favourites are:

US 2008 - A massive Democrat win and even did well in some areas they usually don't (they've swung back since.

Canada 2011 - What looked like a major realignment.

Alberta 2008 - PCs gain in Edmonton (where usually weak) and lose in Calgary (usually strong).

UK 2017 - Much closer and more polarized than we usually see.  Made clear where the right vs. left is strongest in UK.

BC 2013 - Biggest pollster miss

Quebec 2007 - A nail biter and looked like a realignment, but wasn't (although may see this happen again this Fall).
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,837
Canada


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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2018, 07:31:53 PM »

US 1912 - Teddy Roosevelt takes second place as a Progressive. Republicans only won two states, and a Socialist hit almost 6%. Crazy election.

NZ 1996 is definitely an interesting one due to the advent of MMP.

Alberta 2015 - NDP wins due to the conservative split. They'll get blown out of the water in 2019 though.

Canada 2015 is also interesting due to the Liberal sweep of the Atlantic Provinces.

The 90's elections in Canada are fun (especially 1993, as previously mentioned)

UK 2017 is somewhat interesting, but the maps are kinda boring. As much as I hated UKIP, I'm kinda sad that they never had more than a few seats for the purposes of mapping.

Alberta 1935 was pretty crazy. The incumbent government lost all their seats and won only 11% of the vote. Social Credit won 54% of the vote and 56/63 seats in the legislature just months after its formation, then remained in power until 1971.

I had never heard of that one, but that is very interesting.

1993 is proof that Canada has a deeply sexist culture. /s

Not necessarily as we have had multiple female premiers since.  I would argue it was more unique circumstances that led to the two parties dominated by women being defeated.

PCs: Mulroney government was deeply unpopular and he left with an approval rating in the teens so what happened to them is not too much different than the BC NDP in 2001 or New Brunswick PCs in 1987.  Also the Mulroney coalition was quite fragile.  Quebec hadn't traditionally voted PC, but backed them heavily in 1984 and 1988.  After the failure of Meech Lake Accord most of that vote went over to the Bloc Quebecois.  In the West, many felt he pandered too much to Quebec as well as most came from the right wing of the party and wanted it to be more ideological so they want over to the Reform Party.  In Ontario, the Red Tories swung over to the Liberals due to fatigue while the right wing were angry enough they couldn't vote PC so they went to the Reform Party leading to a right wing split and Liberal sweep of the province.  In Atlantic Canada, the PCs did better than elsewhere but faced a similar wipeout to what Harper saw in 2015 (He only didn't see that across the country as the Harper coalition wasn't blown apart like the Mulroney one).

NDP:  Both BC and Ontario had wildly unpopular NDP governments so that negatively rubbed off on the federal NDP.  Also many wanted to ensure the PCs lost so they went over to the Liberals while a lot in the West especially BC, were blue collar populists so they went over to the Reform Party (similar to your Sanders-Trump or Labour Leave voters).  In Saskatchewan which had a reasonably popular provincial NDP government, the NDP vote didn't implode.  At that time they were largely irrelevant in Atlantic Canada (that came in 1997 under Alexa McDonough), Quebec (that came under Layton in 2011), and Alberta (that came in 2015 under Notley although only provincially so far).

Also BQ and Reform Party in vote totals weren't that far off what the PCs got, the difference is those two were more concentrated so it translated into seats whereas the PCs were spread evenly across the country thus not translating into seats, sort of similar to UKIP vs. SNP in the 2015 British election where you saw a similar thing as UKIP got triple the votes the SNP did, but since SNP was more concentrated they won 59 seats vs. only 1 seat.
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