Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow Mainstreet research begins the daily tracker for Quebec so while I cannot share the results should be interesting.  Noticed they've shown things tighter between the CAQ and PLQ than other pollsters so will be interesting if this continues.  I did notice with the Ontario one, they showed the PCs with a much bigger lead than others but as we got closer to the election their numbers converged with others.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their first daily tracker out and interesting Quebec Conservatives and Greens are included but not NDP who are under Autres.  Anyways if you speak French or are willing to rely on a lousy google translator, worth signing up for, but unlike the Ontario one, it is in French only (although pretty sure their surveys include English as without offering in English that would underestimate PLQ support).

[mileslunn]

Are they doing riding polls?

Not sure if I will subscribe this time.

They will be beginning after Labour Day.

[mileslunn]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

To be fair Mainstreet's riding polls need to be taken with a grain of salt.  While they can be useful, they've also had some big misses like the one they showed Peter Fassbender easily being re-elected in Surrey-Fleetwood, showing a three way race in University-Rosedale as examples.  That being said their poll for Ottawa West-Nepean was the first one to show NDP had a chance there so unlike most I was not shocked when the NDP led that riding most of the night until the final polls.  That being said I think Mainstreet predicted NDP would win Parry Sound-Muskoka which was a solid PC riding, so I think a poll like this is interesting but lets wait and see if other riding polls corroborate this in nearby ridings or not.  Riding polling I find is a lot more difficult to do than overall polling.  For example with Ekos, while most of the predictions were right and the few wrong were mostly close, the one big miss was Durham where PCs won by 15 points (only one they were this far off in Ontario election) so that is why I would say lets wait and see.

[mileslunn]

I don't want to reveal all of the Mainstreet riding polls less get banned, but they did show the CAQ ahead in one traditional PLQ riding another traditionally PQ but currently held PLQ while they did show the PLQ slightly ahead in one area you might expect the CAQ to be competitive.  Those with access to them can probably guess which one's I am referring to.

[mileslunn]

While a majority for the PLQ still looks unlikely, a majority for the CAQ is slipping away and a PLQ minority is looking more realistic.  I've found in Quebec politics, since the PLQ is seen as the safest choice, usually they tend do better on election day than what pre-writ numbers suggest so not a huge surprise.  The second debate will be key as a strong performance by Couillard could seal the deal, a strong performance by Lisee could create a three way race although probably not enough to win, but sort of like 2007.  A strong performance by Legault though could allow him to rebound into the lead.  The PQ does look like they will avoid annihiliation as earlier polls suggest, but they are still on thin ice and long-term as there has been a long term decline for them.

[mileslunn]

PCQ 61%
PLQ 60%
CAQ 52%
PVQ 46%
NPD 42%
PQ 34%
QS 32%

Surprised I was PCQ first, but of the main parties that are competitive, I am closest to the PLQ and that is whom I would likely vote for if I lived in Quebec.  I feel Philippe Couillard has done a good job in turning Quebec around and deserves another term.

[mileslunn]

Any data on popular vote by region?

I'll do more calculations tomorrow, but I've done some calculations in a few regions

Lower Saint-Lawrence/Gaspé/Magdalen Islands: PQ 34.6%, CAQ 28.7%, PLQ 23.2%, QS 12.3%

Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean/Côte-Nord: CAQ 35.2%, PQ 31.7%, PLQ 20%, QS 11.6%

Capitale-Nationale: CAQ 44.6%, PLQ 22.6%, QS 17.3%, PQ 12%

Mauricie: CAQ 46.5%, PLQ 22.6%, QS 14.7%, PQ 14.3%

Estrie: CAQ 37.1%, PLQ 22.9%, QS 22.7%, PQ 15.3%

What was Quebec minus island of Montreal, that would be interesting to see the difference here as I am guessing PLQ would have been in the teens CAQ over 40 percent.

[mileslunn]

I was always interested how CBC or other Canadian TV networks make calls on the overall outcome of the election.

On Monday a CAQ govt was projected 15-20 mins after poll close, a majority projected after 35 mins. While it was not close, this still seems pretty quick.

No doubt they have complex models, but in Australia elections are not called unless one party leads (after adjusting for matched booths) in a majority of seats where the vote is reported.

In Canada they seem to project winners with very little of the vote counted. Exit polls also don't seem to be part of the set-up either.

Does anyone have any insight on this?

Australia uses ranked ballots so winning the first round doesn't mean one will win thus why it takes longer whereas Canada uses FTFP. They can call them quickly since as soon as all ridings are reporting a few polls you can see trends. Also based on past results and pre-election polling, they look at key ridings and if the party is winning in the ridings they need to in order to win they can call it.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have the regional breakdown.  If one has a spreadsheet of ridings I can put one together.  Also anyone able to do a map, I would be interested in particular in seeing which ridings were won with over 50%.  It looks like with CAQ, they largely got only pluralities in Capitale Nationale and suburbs of Montreal, but over 50% in rural areas between Montreal and Quebec City and south of Quebec City, sort of like Ontario as PCs won most of the 905 belt, but only with a plurality (save the York Region which they did get over 50%) whereas got over 50% in most rural ridings in Southern Ontario.  In BC, also BC Liberals cracked the 50% in relatively few Lower Mainland ridings, but did in most Interior ones so it seems we are seeing a pattern of parties on the right doing poorly in urban areas, winning pluralities in suburbs, while only getting over 50% in rural areas.

[mileslunn]

Here it gives some regions: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_g%C3%A9n%C3%A9rales_qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9coises_de_2018, I will work on the remainder and update throughout the day.

Chaudiere-Appalaches:

CAQ: 58.9%
PLQ: 18.9%
QS: 9.3%
PQ 8.1%

Cote Nord:

PQ: 38.1%
CAQ: 33.7%
PLQ: 15.4%
QS: 11.3%

Gaspésie-Iles de la Madeleine

PQ: 36.6%
PLQ: 30.5%
CAQ: 16.3%
QS: 14.3%

Lanaudiere:

CAQ: 47.3%
PQ: 26.7%
QS: 13.8%
PLQ: 9.4%

Laval:

PLQ: 37.1%
CAQ: 32.3%
PQ: 13.1%
QS: 10.5%

Monteregie:

CAQ: 42.4%
PLQ: 20.6%
PQ: 18.2%
QS: 14.2%

Isle de Montreal

PLQ: 42.9%
QS: 21.9%
CAQ: 17%
PQ: 12%

Quebec outside Montreal

CAQ: 42.2%
PLQ: 20.5%
PQ: 18.2%
QS: 14.7%

[mileslunn]

Looking at those numbers by regions make me think that the poll showing that the Liberals only got 12% of the francophone vote just can't be true.

Probably not quite that low, but I am guessing mid to high teens.  There were however many ridings without incumbents where they got in single digits, tended to do a bit better in heavily Francophone ones with an incumbent.

[mileslunn]

Oh yeah, the QLP is considered "right" excuse me about that. I was speaking from a US perspective but I understand that in Canada, some Liberals are considered "right of center" at least when it comes to economic issues (business liberals/neoliberals). Pardon about that.

It depends on province.  The federal Liberals, Ontario Liberals, and NB Liberals at the moment are centre-left; Prairie Liberal parties, and other Atlantic provinces are more centrist although some might characterize NS Liberals or Newfoundland Liberals as centre-right.  Quebec Liberals and especially BC Liberals are centre-right.  Liberals in most cases are an opportunist party and go where they think the most votes are so it varies by province and even election.  BC Liberals are the one exception which have since 1996 been firmly on the centre-right.

[mileslunn]

Did moderate-conservatives in Quebec basically luck out in that the "left" was split (maybe not so much the QLP but between QS/PQ)? I understand things are more nuanced and complicated than that but is that one somewhat accurate interpretation of the election? Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Unlike Ontario where one could argue Ford would have not been premier under a different system, Legault would have been premier no matter what system was used.  For PLQ supporters, most would have CAQ as second choice or no second choice as QS and PQ are both separatist making them a non-option.  Of PQ supporters, almost none would have PLQ as second choice, but would be split between QS and CAQ as second choice and CAQ has a much stronger starting point.  True most QS supporters would have PQ as second choice, but QS + PQ was still less than CAQ.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

Want a shapefile? BTW, am I correct in thinking Quebec hasn't put out poll-by-poll results yet?

Anything where I can colour them in using MS Paint works.  Poll by poll won't be out until finalized, much like federally as opposed to Ontario where it came out on election night.

[mileslunn]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

Up until this election, it was tough to really gage where Quebecers stood on the political spectrum.  Generally if a federalist, you voted PLQ no matter where you stood on the political spectrum while if a separatist you voted PQ regardless of where you stood on the spectrum.  True PQ was seen as a centre-left and PLQ as centrist but both were broad coalitions more united on where they stood in terms of Quebec being in Canada or not.  Somewhat akin to Northern Ireland as although DUP and UUP are on the right while Sinn Fein and SD&L are on the left, it seems people vote more along sectarian lines as I am sure Northern Ireland has some right wing Catholics and left wing Protestants.  2018 was probably the first election where voting by ideology as opposed to separatism vs. federalism dominated although it does seem amongst Anglophones, they pretty much went overwhelmingly PLQ regardless of where they stood on the political spectrum, but amongst Francophones you got a clearer picture.

[mileslunn]

Seems PLQ won a lot of the polls near the US border which I believe has a sizeable Anglophone community. Much of the rest follows what you would expect. Surprised though there is an orange line running the entire north to south of the island of Montreal near Saint Laurent Boulevard. I thought once you got north of the autoroute that was solid PLQ territory due to large Allophone community and only south of it on the east Island did it go QS (previously PQ and also CAQ on the very eastern edges). Also looks like CAQ won more polls on Laval than PLQ so PLQ must have run up the margins more in their pockets of support.