2018 Canadian provincial Election predictions

[mileslunn]

There are three provincial elections scheduled for next year, predict the outcome

Ontario June 7, 2018
New Brunswick September 24, 2018
Quebec October 1, 2018

Mine are tentatively but subject to change as events occur

Ontario - PC Majority
Quebec - Liberal Minority
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority

For official opposition, New Brunswick is off course obvious but I predict the following.

Ontario - Liberals are official opposition (strong base and Wynne is a very good campaigner)
Quebec - PQ forms official opposition (CAQ support is quite soft and fluid also less concentrated so they may come in second in votes, but I think PQ will in seats come in second).

[mileslunn]

My updated ones are:

Ontario: Still PC Majority despite leadership change
Quebec: CAQ minority
New Brunswick: Liberal majority still

[mileslunn]

Update ones from me:

ON: Liberals fall to third, still too to call between PC and NDP, but lean towards NDP but final days critical.
QC: CAQ minority but could change
NB: Still lean towards Lib majority, but PC majority very possible.

[mileslunn]

So far one down and two to go. My initial prediction of a PC majority in Ontario was correct, let's see how the other two go. Actually except for a brief period mid campaign that seemed the most likeliest and in fact of the three elections this year Ontario was probably the easiest to predict.

[mileslunn]

I got New Brunswick wrong.  While we don't know who will form government there, unless a recount changes any seats, PC minority would count as correct since PCs won the most seats although as with any minority it is not who wins the most seats, it is who can obtain the confidence.