Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017

[mileslunn]

Fildebrant is too erratic and extreme.  He is the one candidate I think who could actually lose the election for them.  Brian Jean is pretty well liked so if the party wants to ensure a win, he is probably the best choice.  Kenney is fairly polarizing type but he could do well amongst ethnic communities.  He is hated in Edmonton so would probably ensure another NDP sweep there whereas Jean at least might be able to pick up a seat or two, but in Calgary asides from a few central ridings I still suspect he would win.  He is very much like Stephen Harper so I suspect with him at the helm any area the Tories in 2015 got over 50% he would win while where they got under 50% he wouldn't (note the left is more united in Alberta provincially than federally).  I suspect he jumped into provincial politics as he knew he couldn't beat Trudeau federally.  Luckily for him Alberta is one of two provinces that didn't reject Harper in 2015 so it won't cause as much drag to him as it would in Ontario and especially BC.

I think the real danger for the UCP is not 2019, but 2023.  If they govern too much to the right I could see the centre uniting (Alberta Party, Alberta Liberals, and dissatisfied former Progressive Conservatives) and after lurching from one end to another Albertans decide to stop in the centre.  In many ways the Alberta Party is probably the party closest to the median voter but like other Western provinces as well as like you have in the UK, it seems Alberta at least next time around is moving to a strong left/right polarization and the centrist holding their nose up and voting for whichever they dislike the least.  In both the most recent BC and UK election most centrist disliked both options (both places have more of them than most realize) and simply voted for the lesser of the two evils but were unenthusiastic either way.

[mileslunn]

Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story.

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.

Yes this does bring a smile to my face

My take on Alberta polarization is that it's not a left vs. right polarization but a centrist vs. right polarization. The NDP united the centre and centre left in 2015, while the right (which has a bigger slice of the pie) was divided. If the centre still likes the NDP going forward (most still do), I don't see the Alberta Party going anywhere. Notley may be hated by the right in Alberta, but I still think she's respected by most people in the middle. Perhaps someone in Alberta would know better though.

Not from Alberta but have family there and my take is Notley's popularity amongst the centre depends a lot on geography.  Unlike federally Edmonton and Calgary often vote quite differently and in Edmonton she is still quite popular and would likely win most if not all seats there if an election was called today.  In Calgary by contrast she has a core support of 25-30% but a lot really dislike her there and Calgary is not as right wing as in the past as it has with its younger more diverse population become more centrist and if you look at the mainstreet poll the Alberta Party is largely concentrated in Calgary.  The reason I think the Alberta Party could gain is many Red Tories from the PC side much like you saw with the federal merger will probably find the UCP too right wing but going all the way over to the NDP is a bridge too far.  For all this talk of her being quite centrist, I think that is questionable.  On things like oil sands development and pipelines, she is very centrist, but on things like deficits and government spending not so much and that is where I think the Alberta Party has potential to appeal to those who are fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  Off course in the end they may get squeezed out as lots of third parties do. 

While the election is still another 21 months away I would venture to guess the most likely outcome (but could be wrong as I have been before) is the UCP win by a landslide in popular vote, but in seats it is not nearly as big a blowout.  Otherwise Rest of Alberta is a massive win for the UCP perhaps four times as many votes as NDP and that is over 40% of Alberta.  In Calgary the UCP is the favourite but the NDP does have a strong base of 25% meaning if the economy ticks upward and the Alberta Party gains and it comes exclusively from the UCP, they might not do as badly as some think although at this point I think the UCP will win the majority of seats in Calgary but won't sweep the city.  Edmonton at least at the moment looks to stay largely NDP, possibly a complete sweep again.  That being said Edmonton does often go Tory federally, but with a lot working in the provincial civil service I suspect you have a fair number of crossover voters who vote left provincially (want higher salaries) but vote right federally (want tax cuts).

[mileslunn]

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

[mileslunn]

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.

Depends on who the UCP leader is too.  If the UCP leader is too right wing I think there will be enough who want a fiscally conservative but socially progressive party for a party in the centre to exist.  If the next leader is not too right wing than you are probably right.  In BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba the centre-right parties have generally been careful not go too far to the right whereas in Alberta there is an eliminate in the UCP that wants to take a hard right turn whereas in the other three provinces people know the hard right will never fly.

[mileslunn]

What's the level the NDP would have to get to in order to maintain a plurality/majority of seats?

I would say 45% for a majority while depending on third parties anywhere from 35% to 42% for a plurality.  Also distribution of votes too is a big thing as the UCP is likely to run up the margins in Rural Alberta so if the NDP were to lose by say 3 or 4 points they probably still would end up with more seats as this would mean being slightly ahead in Calgary (note in Calgary while UCP is well ahead UCP support is usually about 5% below their provincewide average) while in Edmonton the NDP may sweep again, but it won't be by blowout margins last time and certainly the NDP margins in Edmonton will be much smaller than the UCP margins in Rural Alberta.  Off course with a 28 point gap, they have got a lot of work to do to overcome that.  If the election were next year, I would say they are finished, but 2019 might be enough time to recover but will be tough.  Add to the fact 59.5% voted federally for the Harper led Tories so the idea of the UCP being too right wing for Alberta seems less likely to work as I suspect most who were comfortable voting for Harper federally in 2015 would be fine voting for Kenney or Jean.  That is probably why Kenney went provincial as he knew he was too right wing to ever win federally, but could win in Alberta.

[mileslunn]

Doug Schweitzer has condemned the Rebel media and stated Conservatives should have nothing to do with them as they are supportive of neo-nazis after Faith Goldy reporting on the Charlottesville march and showing support for the alt right.  Will be interesting what impact that has.  No doubt the more right wing elements won't like him attacking the Rebel media, but it could help amongst moderates.  Also depending on how other polls show between now and the leadership will be interesting if you get a large number of progressive signing up to vote in the leadership race like they did for Alison Redford.  Back then it was a foregone conclusion the PCs would win so many unions and progressives signed up to support whomever they thought was the least bad.  At the moment most of that group is happy with the NDP, but if it looks like a UCP win is inevitable (I don't think most on the left feel it is) could we see more of them signing up?

[mileslunn]

I was wondering whom you guys think is most likely to win the UCP leadership and also next election what the chances are.  I tried creating a separate topic but I guess too similar it got deleted. 

For UCP leadership race

Jason Kenney
Brian Jean
Other candidate

General election

UCP will definitely win the next election
UCP will likely win the next election but not certain
NDP will likely get re-elected but not certain
NDP definitely gets re-elected

I choose Jason Kenney as leader although personally my choice would be Doug Schweizer.  For the next general election, mine is UCP will likely win next election but not certain.  In terms of popular vote I will say the UCP definitely wins that, but I think there is a remote chance of the NDP winning a minority in seats while UCP winning the popular vote but that would be the most optimistic for the NDP and worst case scenario for the UCP.

[mileslunn]

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

Just for curiosity how do you think it would breakdown.  My thinking by region goes like the following.

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from Lethbridge or maybe a riding or two in the Capital region I expect a UCP sweep and maybe even those ones.

Calgary - Favours the UCP, but the NDP still has a strong base, but they would really need a perfect storm to hold most of what they have as last time it was 33% NDP, 31% PC, and 24% WRP so even if some don't support the new party it will be tough for the NDP here.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, question is whether it will be a clean sweep or just the majority of seats.

I am pretty much 100% certain the UCP will win the popular vote, otherwise an NDP minority would probably still have the UCP winning the popular vote, but do so by piling up massive margins in Rural Alberta while narrowly losing most of its urban seats.

[mileslunn]

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

Just for curiosity how do you think it would breakdown.  My thinking by region goes like the following.

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from Lethbridge or maybe a riding or two in the Capital region I expect a UCP sweep and maybe even those ones.

Calgary - Favours the UCP, but the NDP still has a strong base, but they would really need a perfect storm to hold most of what they have as last time it was 33% NDP, 31% PC, and 24% WRP so even if some don't support the new party it will be tough for the NDP here.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, question is whether it will be a clean sweep or just the majority of seats.

I am pretty much 100% certain the UCP will win the popular vote, otherwise an NDP minority would probably still have the UCP winning the popular vote, but do so by piling up massive margins in Rural Alberta while narrowly losing most of its urban seats.

Well, I can't say exactly until the Electoral Boundaries Commission releases its final report. But if the recommendations of the interim report were to be adopted with no changes, my thinking would go along these lines:

Seats where NDP are favoured:

• All 20 seats in Edmonton proper
• Calgary-Buffalo
• Calgary-Currie
• Calgary-Klein
• Calgary-Mountain View (pickup from Alberta Liberal)
• Calgary-Varsity
• St. Albert
• Sherwood Park
• Lethbridge-West

Total: 28 seats

Plus...

Tossups where NDP could be competitive:

• Calgary-Forest
• Calgary-Cross (if Ricardo Miranda re-runs)
• Calgary-Airport (if Irfan Sabir re-runs)
• Lethbridge-East
• Medicine Hat (if Bob Wanner re-runs)
• St. Albert-Redwater
• Strathcona-Sherwood Park
• Leduc-Beaumont
• Lesser Slave Lake
• Wetaskiwin-Camrose
• Banff-Stoney
• Grande Prairie (potential pickup)
• Red Deer-North
• Red Deer-South

Total: 14 seats

The caveat here is that, aside from not knowing what the actual boundaries would be, I'm also unsure of where a third party like the Alberta Party would be competitive. That said, if the NDP were to somehow win every seat that I've listed here, they would have 42 seats, which could be enough for a minority government.

I would say at the moment most of the toss ups are probably uphill battles, but certainly not impossible.  All of them went massively Tory federally in 2015 as well as historically lean right.  I also think in Calgary right now the UCP has a pretty strong lead so the NDP would have to cut that dramatically to win more than a few seats.  Likewise while I agree at the moment with the 28 seats mentioned I am not sure a sweep of Edmonton is a foregone conclusion but certainly possible.  Which seat is the most favourable for the UCP of the Edmonton seats?

Likewise even with 42 seats, unless the Alberta Party picks up seats, I have it as 44 seats UCP, 42 seats NDP, and 1 seat Alberta Party.  Off course it would be a razor thin majority and when you factor in the speaker, they would have to break a lot of ties, never mind one by-election loss could change things thus such scenario probably wouldn't last the full four years.

While not perfect, do you have the federal 2015 results for these as I am thinking any provincial riding where the federal Tory vote in 2015 was over 50% will probably go UCP, while if under 50% then the NDP favoured and although not perfect that would probably be the closest as I don't think you will see many Harper voters from 2015 cross over to the NDP, maybe some might go Alberta Party but Harper was fairly similar in ideology to Kenney and Jean so I suspect most of those will go UCP.  They may do slightly worse simply do due demographic change (i.e. those who died or left the province are more likely to be Tory voters, while those not old enough to vote, not Canadian citizens, or moved to Alberta more likely to be progressive voters).

[mileslunn]

Generally speaking, the most favourable seats to the UCP would be the ridings in suburban southwest Edmonton, likely Edmonton-Whitemud, Edmonton-McClung, and Edmonton-South West on the current map. Those seats tend to be wealthier and more conservative-leaning, so I'd look there first.

The Alberta Party's performance would certainly be a wildcard. In Calgary, for example, I imagine that many of the seats that the Alberta Party would be competitive in would otherwise be seats which would be favourable to the NDP (such as Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity).

I would caution against directly using federal results to predict provincial results, especially in Alberta. Speaking as an Albertan, my province is very big-C Conservative federally, but a lot of that can still be related to the western populist flavour of the federal Conservatives, and the general feeling that only the CPC will stand up for Alberta's interests. These voting intentions don't always transition over to the provincial level. For example, the city of Lethbridge voted approximately 53% for the NDP provincially in 2015, yet in the federal election, the NDP won very few polls in the city, and the Conservative candidate won the Lethbridge riding (which, to be fair, contains rural Lethbridge County in addition to the city) with 56%. Every poll in the West Lethbridge section of the city (everything west of the Oldman River) went NDP provincially and CPC federally in 2015.

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

True enough, although I doubt there will be a lot of Conservative-NDP crossovers in 2019.  Yes I can see the NDP winning in many areas that went federally Tory thus why I stated over 50% as I suspect most federal Liberal voters will go NDP provincially.  Otherwise essentially the NDP has united the progressive vote and contrary to what some claim generally Alberta is only a 60-40 split in terms of right vs. left.  I understand not everybody follows that but even if just 80% of federal Tory voters support the UCP, that would still be 48% of the popular vote which likely means a win otherwise realistically you would need about 25% of federal Tory voters to crossover which seems rather high.  In BC we used to have a lot of crossover of NDP provincially and Reform federally, but that has largely dissipated as in the case of the Interior much of that vote now goes BC Liberal provincially and likewise most on the Island (there wasn't so much of that in the Lower Mainland) is now going NDP at both levels.

[mileslunn]

Insights West released this poll of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

If the party is serious about winning they should chose Brian Jean as opposed to Jason Kenney as I think Jean would fare better. Doug Schweitzer is interesting as although his tax cuts might be controversial, he is socially progressive so would take away the attacks there and it's probably in Edmonton his tax plan is more likely to run into opposition, in Calgary its more the social conservatism where the UCP could run into trouble.

Surprised Greg Clark has a negative rating as he seems quite reasonable.  Is Alberta just become so polarized that the right dislike anyone not proposing massive spending cuts while left hates anyone who opposes any fiscal restraint?  His policies seem quite balanced that involve competitive taxes, controlling spending to bring about a balanced budget over 4 years without front line service cuts.

[mileslunn]

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

The main take away I got from your list is how tough a situation the NDP is in.

It looks like they'll need to hold on to their 2015 voters AND hold off the Liberals/Alberta party AND take some folks from the UCP to even manage a small loss in the popular vote. Even then I raised an eyebrow at a couple of your picks (e.g. I really doubt the NDP win Medicine Hat against a united right unless they have a decent sized win). I'm not writing them off (this is Canada after all ), but I suspect the result will look something like 1993. The progressives will sweep or near sweep Edmonton, win a handful of other seats, but the Tories will still maintain a comfortable majority.

I tend to agree.  Outside of the two main cities the two Lethbridge ridings, Sherwood Park, and St. Albert are the only four I think they have decent shots in and the first two have a large university population while the latter are suburbs of Edmonton.  In Calgary, they will probably win a few in the central parts of the city which have a younger population and are more left leaning, but not much beyond that.  The Southern part they struggled even before merging so expect the UCP to win big in the area of Harper and Kenney's federal riding.  The West and Northwest are pretty solid while Northeast and East it depends on how well the NDP does amongst ethnic groups although I think Kenney is pretty solid with them so would probably win there even if those areas might vote Liberal federally.  Edmonton I agree will probably go largely NDP although I think if they chose Jean, the UCP have a good shot at picking up some of the suburban ones particularly in the Southwestern part of the city while with Kenney a sweep is more likely.  He does as well in Calgary as Jean, but in Edmonton most polls show Jean being fairly competitive with the NDP, but Kenney well back.

[mileslunn]

Insights West released this poll of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

Insights West (opt-in online methodology) one day... and then Mainstreet Research (IVR) with similar favourability rating question but with different results. Who to believe? -

Brian Jean: 48% favourable / 19% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 39% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 32% unsure or don't know who he is
Nathan Cooper: 10% favourable / 5% unfavourable / 85% unsure or don't know who he is
Rachel Notley: 26% favourable / 60% unfavourable / 14% unsure or don't know who she is

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/mcdavid-wins-alberta-popularity-contest/

I take the averages.  Essentially both show that Brian Jean is fairly popular so if the party wants to guarantee a win they would be best to choose him.  Jason Kenney is more divisive although he would probably still win a general election.  Both Jean and Kenney would likely dominate Rural Alberta and Calgary, but Edmonton is where the big difference would occur.  Notley would probably beat both in Edmonton but at least with Jean they would likely win seats there whereas with Kenney they risk a shutout.

Both show Notley with fairly negative ratings and compared to other premiers it is not as bad as Kathleen Wynne, so if she pulls off a surprise win next year (not likely, but you never know) then she might have hope, while similar to both Harper and Christy Clark.  The former lost pretty badly while the latter almost won mind you Horgan was much less known and his approval was more mixed not positive like Jean.

[mileslunn]

Which seats would the Alberta Party be expected to overperform in besides Calgary Elbow? I'm assuming seats with lots of well off folks who don't like right wing parties' populism and/or religiosity, but unfortunately I don't know which seats those are in Alberta

Mostly in Calgary, but cannot think of any off the top of my head.  If they get only in the teens in Calgary, probably no other seats or random one, but if they crack the 20% mark there you could see a few others flip.  Probably ones closest to the central part of the city as those areas tend to be wary of more right wing parties, but are fairly centrists rather than left leaning.

[mileslunn]

If chosen as leader and elected in 2019, Schweitzer will roll the minimum wage back from $15/hr to $12.20/hr.

Even if economically a smart idea (which depending on whom you ask different people will say different things) I cannot see that helping the UCP.  If they promised to freeze it at $15/hour and consult with the business community before allowing any more rises or check the results in other jurisdictions that would be more sellable.  I personally do not support raising the minimum wage to $15/hour (I think $12 to $13/hour is reasonable) but I think cutting the minimum wage especially when you have 20% of Albertans making below $15/hour is going to be a very tough sell.  That being said his chances of winning are low so he is probably more throwing out ideas to get attention and depending on the public response Kenney or Jean (whichever of the two wins) can gage best on that whether it is a good or bad idea to proceed on.

[mileslunn]

It's all moot, because Doug Schweitzer is not going to win.

Good point, Kenney said he opposes the increases in minimum wage, but will not roll it back if he wins.  I suspect Brian Jean the only one who might be able to beat Kenney will probably say a similar thing.  While Jason Kenney is the favoured to win the UCP leadership race, I believe Brian Jean would perform better in a general election than Kenney.  Kenney does well in Calgary, while Rural Alberta will vote massively UCP no matter what, in Edmonton Jean is within striking distance of the NDP while Kenney is well back.  Otherwise with Kenney I think the NDP would sweep Edmonton whereas Jean would probably at least win a few seats in the city.

[mileslunn]

Do you think the fact the polls show Jean would fare better against Notley and has a more positive approval rating than Kenney will have any impact.  It seems Kenney is the favourite within the party, but they would do better in a general election with Jean than Kenney.

[mileslunn]

Do you think the fact the polls show Jean would fare better against Notley and has a more positive approval rating than Kenney will have any impact.  It seems Kenney is the favourite within the party, but they would do better in a general election with Jean than Kenney.

I doubt it. I've seen spin on those polls from the Kenney camp that it's a bad thing that Jean does better amongst the general public because he would supposedly attract some (small-l) liberal support, and the Kenney supporters would rather back a "true" conservative.

Jean's getting character-assassinated by both the Kenney and Callaway camps, and I think Kenney's brought in too many people who are loyal to him personally for Jean to pull off a victory.

But don't they realize even in Alberta going too far to the right is a way to lose what should be an easily winneable election.  Alberta is Canada's most conservative province but is a slightly right of centre, not hard right one.  More than half the population are in the two largest cities and you don't win in either by tacking too much to the right.  Now to be fair since Kenney is from Calgary, I don't think it will make too much difference in Calgary on whom they choose, it will more be Edmonton and some of the smaller urban centres elsewhere as well as suburbs in the Capital region where it matters.  Both will face an uphill battle in Edmonton but I think with Jean they could win a few seats there while Kenney would likely ensure another shutout.

[mileslunn]

My prediction is Kenney wins it, but I think Jean would be a better choice in terms of electability.

[mileslunn]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

[mileslunn]

Jason Kenney wins with over 60% on first ballot, so sort of what is expected.  No doubt the NDP is happy, but they should not underestimate him.  He is a very polarizing figure and has lots of negative baggage, but he is a very strong campaigner and knows how to win, so while I think he is favoured to be the next premier, it is not a foregone conclusion and I do think with him you will probably have a somewhat larger official opposition than you would have under Jean.

He hasn't led a campaign yet though. Kenney's done an excellent job campaigning as a minister and leadership candidate, but an actual campaign is a different kettle of fish.

The implication being: he could be another Jim Prentice?

Definitely possible although the anger at the NDP is pretty strong so they will have to improve considerably in popularity to have a shot.  Many who voted NDP last time did so as a protest vote not realizing they might actually win, in many ways similar to the NDP win in 1990 in Ontario.  That being said Kenney's overconfidence and the fact he is more right wing than past PC leaders were could make it more competitive than some might imagine.

[mileslunn]

The difference being the NDP government in Alberta is 1000x more competent than the one we had in Ontario. Albertans are spoiled rotten.

I think the rapid rise in the debt though is a big concern.  It was $19 billion when they came to office will be $70 billion by 2019 and will almost certainly go over $100 billion if re-elected so there are very legitimate concerns the NDP is not showing any kind of fiscal restraint.  Off course many may not like the slash and burn either and in some ways the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party are trying to offer a middle of the road plan to balance the budget without big spending cuts.  That being said Harper even in 2015 got 59.5% so the NDP will need to win over a sizeable number of those who voted Conservative federally to have a shot again.  That being said I think Kenney will do worse than that, I am guessing he will get in the low 50s while the NDP around 30% but wouldn't be surprised if things are even tighter. 

I've found in politics people generally tend to vote for parties that are philosophically similar to them and in Alberta unlike most provinces more people lean right than lean left thus the advantage to the UCP.  Yes that is changing as millennials in Alberta like elsewhere are more progressive than conservative, but with Boomers being about a 70/30 split in favour of conservatism that is too big a margin to overcome so I think once the boomers start to die off you will see progressive parties winning more often in Alberta not just provincially but also federal seats too.