New Zealand Election 2017

[mileslunn]

I wonder if this is going to cost New Zealand First valuable support in 2020.  I have no doubt National and Labour (and the Greens) are going to remind voters of their attention-whoring come election time. 

New Zealand First is largely a Winston Peters' party as he is the only leader they have ever had.  Since he is 72, I doubt he will run again in 2020 so I would not be surprised the least bit if the party falls below the 4% mark.  I also think after this, especially if National wins a majority in 2020, they will have another referendum to switch back to FTFP to reduce the risk of this happening again.

[mileslunn]

I am going to be contrarian, but stick with my prediction of National.

[mileslunn]

He likes to play tricks so it looks like Labour, but he might surprise us like 1996.  Should know in a few minutes.

[mileslunn]

Surprise no leak yet, usually these things are leaked to the media by someone before so he must be keeping his cards really close to his chest.

[mileslunn]

Surprise no leak yet, usually these things are leaked to the media by someone before so he must be keeping his cards really close to his chest.

Oh yes. He may not have even told the leaders yet. (Or at least he hadn't until like the last hour or so).

Has he even told his own caucus at least?  My guess is he probably created a deal with both thus giving each the impression it was possible and then will choose the best of the two.

[mileslunn]

Imagine if he just doesn't show up and leaves us hanging for like an hour and then says there's not going to be a decision today.

That seems to be Winston Peters alright for you seeks maximum attention.  I almost wonder if it will be a blessing in disguise for whomever he doesn't choose.

[mileslunn]

Could one of the leaders issue an ultimatum, either announce his choice in the next 24 hours or the deal is off and that might force him to stop playing games although he did this in 1996.

[mileslunn]

But wouldn't the Green Party pay a big penalty for propping up National.  I've generally found that when Greens prop up centre-right parties such as in Ireland and Czech Republic they take a big hit the next election.  So while a National-Green coalition is probably the most stable option, the Greens probably are avoiding it more out of political calculus.  The Liberals Democrats in 2010 in the UK would have been in much better shape had they not gone into coalition with the Conservatives, but the country would be worse off due to instability (One with Labour would have been Labour-SNP-PC-Green-SDLP-LibDems or at least most of these and much less stable).  Nick Clegg when he lost his seat this past June mentioned about putting the country ahead of party even though his party and eventually even he himself paid a big price.

[mileslunn]

Are you kidding me? Live on Facebook??!! DID HE FAKE OUT THE PRESS?

And will he fake out of the facebook live.  I almost would dread wanting to work this guy in government.

[mileslunn]

If he is this late, do you really want him anywhere near power.  Good politicians are usually punctual unless there is a good reason for not being.

[mileslunn]

How about just another election.  I suspect after his antics, New Zealand First won't make the 4% cut off so either it will be a National majority or a Labour-Green government.

[mileslunn]

Just say who it is and explain the reasoning after enough of the suspense.

[mileslunn]

It looks like it is Labour.

[mileslunn]

Well I guess Canada is no longer the sole Anglosphere country with a centre-left PM.  Trudeau must be feeling old as first Macron, then Kurz, and now Ardern it seems choosing young leaders is becoming popular.  UK and US interestingly enough have fairly old leaders of their parties.

[mileslunn]

How long until Jacinda Ardern is officially prime-minister.  My understanding is anytime there is a change in government there is always a transition period.  In Canada it is usually around 2-3 weeks typically where the outgoing PM remains PM until the incoming one takes over.  The US has a ridiculous 10 weeks transition so on what date approximately does she get sworn in?  On the other hand the UK usually does it the next day where the incoming one visits the PM at least if there is a majority.  If a hung parliament then it takes a bit longer.