New Zealand Election 2017

[mileslunn]

Both polls strongly suggest to me that Labour+Greens might just be enough to have a majority; on one they were 51% combined and the other has them 48.5%.  It would depend on whether there's any overhang (on those numbers I don't know whether ACT would cause an overhang if they won a constituency seat; if the Maori/Mana party pact works then that may well force an overhang as well) but usually a set of parties getting that close to 50% in an MMP election usually guarantees that they'll get a majority.

I'm pretty sure that no polls have NZ First and only one poll all campaign have had the Greens missing 5%.  If the latter did then it basically makes Peters the kingmaker able to go whichever way we wanted, if NZ First miss then it basically guarantees a Labour government unless the Nationals get very close to an overall majority.  I think that both will get in though, although both will lose seats - plus Peters has the outside chance of holding Northland which would be very handy for them if they are flirting with missing the threshold.

Historically, the Greens have done worse than their polling and NZ First has done better. The polling companies have apparently tried to correct for that; we'll see how they do in a week.

I talked to someone who has ties to the Labour Party and they said that Hone Harawira (Mana Party) isn't doing that well. Their party vote has collapsed, but Māori seat voters are willing to split their votes. I wouldn't count Harawira out without seeing a poll for Te Tai Tokerau though.

The Māori Party could potentially cause an overhang if they win 3 electorate seats, depending on their party vote. I think they'd have enough to get two seats regardless of whether they win one electorate or two.

ACT probably won't be an overhang. They seem to be polling about 0.6%, which should be enough, I think.

What are the odds of Winston Peters holding Northland?

Very unlikely, imo.

Also, this is what the Colmar Burton poll looks like when converted into seats:

Hard for me to say about Peters in Northland. Labour did abnormally poor in the by-election, which makes me think he might not be that strong if Labour rebounds a bit.

Also, concerning that parliamentary layout, I feel like Māori will win at least two seats.

In terms of chances, what do you think the odds are for each.  I think in terms of popular vote it is truly a toss up.  I would give a slight advantage to Labour in forming government since if Labour + Greens get the majority they will definitely form government but if NZ First is the kingmaker I feel they could go either way.

[mileslunn]

Another Horizon's poll showing everything tied up,

Horizon Research
9–14 Sep 2017
38.5  National
38.2  Labour
7.7   Green
9.8   New Zealand First
0.6   Maori Party
1.4   ACT
0.0   United Future
0.9   Conservative
0.2   Mana
2.3   TOP

[mileslunn]

How does the speaker work.  Does the governing party always put one up as I am thinking if a coalition is only 61 seats the speaker would put them down to 60 seats although I am assuming they will break the ties, but do they break them along partisan lines or do they follow Denison's rules breaking them to maintain debate?

[mileslunn]

In 1993 National won a 1-seat majority, which they'd have lost if a National MP became the Speaker. So they put up Labour MP Peter Tapsell as Speaker, enabling them to survive the 3 years.

Surprised Labour went along with it.  Here in BC, the BC Liberals got 43 seats out of 87 so one shy of a majority while NDP 41 seats and the Greens 3 seats.  The Greens decided to back the NDP thus a 44-43 split however one BC Liberal decided to run for speaker giving them an advantage and the BC Liberals were so outraged they booted him from caucus so if politics is as polarizing as here, I would think if an opposition party did this there would be a lot of anger.  Off course if ACT or United Future win a seat, maybe they could that would seem like a reasonable way to avoid the impasse.

[mileslunn]

Tbh it was pretty obvious if you follow NZ politics that Ardern would give Labour a significant boost, compared to Andrew Little. The question now is whether that's enough for Labour to go from 24% less than 2 months ago to actually winning the election.

Yeah, she was polling well (for a non-leader) in the preferred PM race for a while.

Going from 24% to being in close contention is basically Corbyn 2.0. The question, as you say, is whether or not she can pull it off.

According to this, we should have a good idea of the results very early on. Good thing because I don't want to stay up past 9 PM or so their time (2 AM Calif time).

She seems more comparable to Trudeau in Canada than Corbyn or in many ways even somewhat like Obama too in terms of charisma. I guess sort of the age as Corbyn seemed more the type like Sanders who could excite passion on issues people felt strongly about while she seems more like a younger charismatic type who can get those not interested in politics interested.  When Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party you saw a similar jump in support as when Ardern became Labour leader although after 18 months of Tory attack ads he fell behind but gradually improved during the campaign.  Another comparison is Sebastian Kurz in Austria as the OVP was in third place in the low 20s before he became leader and is now leading.  Otherwise I would put Ardern in the Kurz and Trudeau category as well as maybe Sadiq Khan in London, charismatic types that get the normally apathetic youth excited, while Corbyn and Sanders are more your old timers but who are very passionate and bring out those who feel the same anger.  Otherwise the latter two appeal to those who are angry at the system and want radical rather than small change whereas I think Ardern more like Trudeau and in fact even Obama too more get people optimistic and hopefuly. 

[mileslunn]

So, tonight and tomorrow night. Usually they seem to come out at 11 PM PST.

Should be interesting although not sure much has happened to change things much and with advanced polls they could have less impact.  Could Ardern get some sympathy votes over the death of her Grandma?

I am thinking there are three things to watch for.

1.  Does Labour + Greens get a majority, possible but still I think not the most likely outcome

2.  Do Greens get above 5% or not.  If they get above that improves Labour's chances while if they get below it helps the National.

3.  Is New Zealand First the kingmaker and who do they go for.  If they become the kingmaker my understanding is we won't know until October 12th who will form the next government as that is when they will announce who they are backing.

[mileslunn]

Should be interesting although not sure much has happened to change things much and with advanced polls they could have less impact.  Could Ardern get some sympathy votes over the death of her Grandma?

I am thinking there are three things to watch for.

1.  Does Labour + Greens get a majority, possible but still I think not the most likely outcome

2.  Do Greens get above 5% or not.  If they get above that improves Labour's chances while if they get below it helps the National.

3.  Is New Zealand First the kingmaker and who do they go for.  If they become the kingmaker my understanding is we won't know until October 12th who will form the next government as that is when they will announce who they are backing.

I feel like Labour+Greens+Māori will have a majority. Not sure if Labour+Greens will. I think the Greens will break 5%.

That obviously would mean that NZ First won't be kingmaker. Honestly, I think Winston might lean Labour? Maybe? Not really sure.

Also, Hone will probably be out.

If this happens Canada will no longer be the sole Anglosphere country with a non-right wing government.  After Trump's win we took that role mind you ironically in 2009 Canada and New Zealand were the only two with right wing governments.  Off course UK, Australia, and US all show the non-right either tied or slightly ahead but that is a whole different topic to be discussed elsewhere.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the earlier Newshub poll might not be a rogue one or could be just volatility otherwise looks like National is on track to win but lets see what the final polls say.


National 46%


Labour 37%


Greens 8%


NZ First 5%


TOP 2%


Maori 1%

Also on best PM

Bill English 37%
Jacinda Ardern 31%

So perhaps Jacindamania is ebbing a bit.  Still not over but I would say National is probably the favourite at the moment but we shall see.  Either way with Labour making a strong comeback they will be in a good position to win in 2020 and no reason Ardern shouldn't stay on win or lose.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the earlier Newshub poll might not be a rogue one or could be just volatility otherwise looks like National is on track to win but lets see what the final polls say.


National 46%


Labour 37%


Greens 8%


NZ First 5%


TOP 2%


Maori 1%

Also on best PM

Bill English 37%
Jacinda Ardern 31%

So perhaps Jacindamania is ebbing a bit.  Still not over but I would say National is probably the favourite at the moment but we shall see.  Either way with Labour making a strong comeback they will be in a good position to win in 2020 and no reason Ardern shouldn't stay on win or lose.

I wouldn't put stock in this poll, considering how far of an outlier it is to literally EVERYTHING else.

It matches Newshub and one reporter said it also corresponds with their internal polls mind you turnout especially amongst younger voters, advanced voting as well as last minute swings could all change things.  Agree Labour can still win it's not over, but I do think National at least in popular vote has the edge at the moment.  Now if NZ First falls below 5%, which is unlikely then things can get interesting since if Labour + Greens is less than National they might be close to a majority on their own but if it exceeds them, then with the help of the Maori they may still form government.

[mileslunn]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

Does seem strange.  One possibility is the undecided broke heavily in their favour, I've seen that happen in many other jurisdictions late in the game where the undecided breaks heavily in favour of one side.  The other is youth turnout looked lower so they weighted it less.  I guess tomorrow's newshub poll and maybe Roy Morgan if one comes out will confirm or deny this and then off course once the results actually come in.

[mileslunn]

Also National's internal polls were leaked which were:

National 43%

Labour 39%

NZ First 6%

Greens 6%

So actually within the margin of error but a bit tighter.  Also they claimed their numbers softened overnight.  I guess though with the violatility probably a good reason to vote as I could matter and likewise probably good reason not bet a lot of money on any particular outcome.  It's not like the German election the day after where you could probably safely bet on the CDU/CSU coming in first whereas in New Zealand making such a bet for either would be a bit risky.

[mileslunn]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

It has been 7 weeks since Ardern became leader, maybe the new leader poll bounce is wearing off.

Maybe, but if that was happening, your party wouldn't lose 6 points in one polling period, it would be sliding off a little bit slower, don't you think?

If the poll is correct which is a big if, Labour probably didn't actually lose anything, rather the undecided voters from previous polls broke heavily in favour of National.  Lets remember most polls exclude those who are undecided so if that number goes down and they break heavily in favour of one party, things like that can happen.  I guess we will have to see what the remaining polls say and the results.  At this point I think there is a strong probability that National will come in first in votes but unless they win a majority or get close enough they can rely on ACT we probably won't know until October 12th who forms government or not.

[mileslunn]

Newshub Poll coming out at 6 PM Auckland time.  My guess is National will be in the lead but will it be a big lead or a small one.

[mileslunn]

Based on the two final polls being similar enough, I will make the following two predictions.

1.  National wins the popular vote
2.  New Zealand First is the kingmaker so we won't know whether Bill English will continue as PM or Jacinda Ardern becomes PM until October 12th.

[mileslunn]

My prediction is as follows, don't know the seats so someone else might be able to give what they would be, but below is the percentages I predict

National Party 45%
Labour Party 38%
Green Party 6%
New Zealand First 6%

While cannot speak on the rest, but I am guessing 2 Maori seats and one ACT.

[mileslunn]

I think part of Labour's "collapse" is people who were saying they were voting to Labour are now convinced that they'll be close enough that they just need the Greens and/or Maori to form a government, and are now backing one of those two parties.

True enough as much of the drop in Labour support has been offset in rising Green support.  That being said National has gone up a bit so the question is did the undecided voters from earlier break heavily thus why National is pulled ahead or is it amongst progressive voters many went into the undecided column and then once they decide they will go Labour or Green.  While I know we should avoid bringing cross country comparisons, in 2015 here in Canada, the Tories pulled ahead in late September as up until then most progressives were backing the NDP, but when the NDP started to fall behind and Liberals grow much of the progressive vote went into the undecided column thus allowing the Tories to shoot up in poll numbers even though they didn't pick up any support, but later one when it became clear the Liberals were the best vehicle they moved into that category thus they pulled ahead.  So if that is the case good news for Labour, but I am a bit skeptical, I tend to think more some who maybe liked Jacinda Ardern personally but still think the current government is doing a good job have decided to stick with what they know.  Even if Ardern doesn't become PM, she will probably get another kick at the can.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Labour underperformed although I think in early August had you told most Labour supporters they would get 36% they would have then been quite happy.  Perhaps Jacindamania made some get over confident.  I think Labour was hurt by two things.  1.  Many progressives were afraid the Greens would fall below 5% so some voted strategically so the Greens wouldn't fall below 5%.  2.  The undecided vote which was quite high broke heavily in favour of National as it seems Nationals were still fairly popular and even if people liked Jacinda Ardern they weren't at the stage of throwing the bums out.  Otherwise Obama's win in 2008 and Trudeau's in 2015 were quite different as both were facing off against parties that had very low approval ratings thus why they succeeded where Ardern didn't.  If English had a 33% approval rating like Harper did in Canada or 25% like Bush did in the US, I suspect we would be talking about a Labour landslide.

My guess is probably National + New Zealand First but a Labour + Green + New Zealand First is certainly possible so otherwise Winston Peters will once again be kingmaker.

[mileslunn]

Why don't people get that with MMP, there are no winners or losers until a government is formed.

There's still a lingering FPP mindset, and given that there hasn't been a situation where the biggest party lost, the automatic assumption is that the biggest party wins. Hopefully that is disproven this election.

Even in FTFP it is possible to have a party with fewer seats form government if a hung parliament.  Happened in BC in 2017 and Ontario in 1985.  Likewise in the UK if Labour + SNP + PC get a majority of seats I suspect you will see Labour form government even if the Tories get more seats.  FTFP simply means usually the largest party wins the majority of seats and looking at the gap between Labour and National it is likely with FTFP National would have won a majority.  I think the best solution in my personal opinion is AV like Australia has as I suspect most Greens would have chosen Labour as second choice while tough to say where New Zealand First voters would go.

[mileslunn]

Any particular reason special votes go more heavily Labour than regular as seems a rather large shift. Looks like Labour did a lot better than Nationals in the special votes. Anybody have the breakdown how special votes compared to regular.

[mileslunn]

Looks like will find out on Saturday who forms the next government.  While it could really go either way I give it a 60-40 in favour of National.  The reason is with National it would be a two party coalition whereas with Labour the Greens have to be included.  I think if Labour + NZ First got a majority Peters would have gone with Labour.  Nonetheless neither would surprise me.  Besides for Labour being in opposition for another three years will probably improve their chances in 2020 and perhaps maybe even make a Labour-Green one probable whereas if going into government it could be quite shaky.  I think whichever party forms government will ultimately face a tough chance at re-election in 2020.

[mileslunn]

I know this may sound a little silly, but how about one side agreeing to allow Winston Peters to be prime-minister but whichever party he forms a coalition with would get most of the cabinet posts.  This will probably due to his age be his last election so allow him to go out on a high note while whichever party he partnered with would still largely drive the agenda.

[mileslunn]

Is there any reason Winston Peters is dragging this out so long?  I also wonder if this will make it easier to convince people to return to First Past the Post so they can avoid this in the future.  In addition with New Zealand First being mostly a Winston Peters' party and him being 72, I wonder if the party will disappear or become like ACT and United Future once he retires.  The question is does it benefit Labour or National more.  I would tend to think National since his support is strongest amongst older voters, but the platform is quite interventionist so could benefit Labour.

[mileslunn]

Any guesses.  While a bit contrarian, my guess is 60% chance he goes with National and 40% chance with Labour.  I think the inclusion of Greens will be the reason I lean towards National but really could go either way.

[mileslunn]

This is getting annoying.  Why is Winston Peters taking so long.  If they had FTFP instead of MMP Bill English would have won a majority assuming people voted the same way or perhaps maybe enough Greens and perhaps NZ First (I suspect they would have split evenly between the two) would have voted Labour to allow a Labour win but probably a National Majority albeit a smaller one would have occurred.  Either way a government would be decided by the people not one man. 

[mileslunn]

Just two quick questions for the all of you:

If Winston goes with National, does Jacinda resign?

If Winston goes with Labour, does English resign?

If Winston goes with National no Jacinda stays on as she dramatically improved the party's fortunes and with the government being 12 years old by 2020 her chances of winning will be even better.

If Winston goes with Labour, I don't think English will resign right away as he probably expects it to not last until 2020, but if by next fall the government is still in place and appears no chance of falling he may resign although polls will play a big role.  If he is trailing then he probably will, but if well in front he might try to make a comeback in 2020.