Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[mileslunn]

Okay its forum and its out of whack with other pollsters so probably one of the 1 in 20 http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2826/federal-horserace-january-2018/ . but FWIW interesting but probably not true.

Liberal support at 38% is not too far off other pollsters, but none have the Tories anywhere near 43% and likewise most have the NDP higher than 12% and Greens higher than 3% (the Greens always tend to poll higher in between elections, so they might get that come election day but I suspect the NDP or Liberals as opposed to Tories will benefit more).

Looking at the regional numbers

Atlantic Canada: Small sample but I don't buy for a minute the Tories are tied or over 40%.  Yes things have tightened up a bit there and the Tories may have crossed the 30% line, but most still show the Liberals 15-20 points ahead.

Quebec: This is the one region where the numbers actually seem reasonable.

Ontario: Some other polls have put the Tories over 40% so low 40s is believable, but 46% I highly doubt, even provincially where Wynne is a lot less popular than Trudeau, the provincial PCs don't have those type of numbers.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Unlike their past ones, the numbers here are at least somewhat believable.

Alberta: 68% is a bit on the high side for the Tories even in Alberta, but for all intents and purpose no matter what poll you use, you have the Tories winning the vast majority of seats so seat wise doesn't make that big a difference.

British Columbia: While 43% for the Tories is not impossible based on how they've done in the past, I have a tough time believing they are at that is most other pollsters show them below the 30% so while its possible in the right circumstances they could get those numbers, I don't believe they are there right now.

[mileslunn]

I agree with the Alberta and BC feud are all tactical.  Considering how far back Notley is and that there is only 478 days left in her mandate, this is pretty much the only chance she has although even with this, I expect polls might tighten, but doubt it will be enough to overcome the gap.  In the case of BC, Horgan has probably figured there are few BC Liberal votes for taking, otherwise the party is down to its core so to win next time around he needs to pick up some Green votes.

[mileslunn]

While I never want to make any firm predictions considering how often the unexpected has happened, I see a Conservative majority is extremely unlikely.  Minority perhaps (but I suspect the NDP and Liberals would gang up them to keep them out).  The best case scenario for the Tories, albeit not most likely, is around 150 seats, otherwise 7 in Atlantic Canada, hold what they have in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 20 seats in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 32 seats in Alberta, and 20 seats in British Columbia.  Obviously they will likely do worse, but if the Liberals continue to mess up and the Tories have a strong platform and campaign, I see this as their best case scenario.  For the NDP, with Trudeau moving leftward, cannot see them winning, but I could see them having more influence.  If the Liberals drop to a minority, the NDP will hold the balance of power and could push through some of their policies.  Many progressive policies like Medicare and CPP happened in Liberal minority governments due to the NDP so you don't have to win to matter, you can have an impact even without winning.

[mileslunn]

While I never want to make any firm predictions considering how often the unexpected has happened, I see a Conservative majority is extremely unlikely.  Minority perhaps (but I suspect the NDP and Liberals would gang up them to keep them out).  The best case scenario for the Tories, albeit not most likely, is around 150 seats, otherwise 7 in Atlantic Canada, hold what they have in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 20 seats in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 32 seats in Alberta, and 20 seats in British Columbia.  Obviously they will likely do worse, but if the Liberals continue to mess up and the Tories have a strong platform and campaign, I see this as their best case scenario. 

There's still time for a major scandal or the economy to take a downturn, but assuming neither of those happen, the trickle of unforced Liberal errors won't be good for anymore than a Tory minority and probably not even that. Eyeballing the polls, it looks like the Tories will take back a decent number of seats from the Liberals in Anglo Canada, but the Liberals will more or less break even by swallowing the NDP and Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.

Someone needs to emerge as a clear runner up in Quebec to force a minority (assuming the Tories don't pick up the pace in the ROC). The Liberals will run the table in Quebec if the polls hold and the result is something like 45-15-15-15

With Andrew Scheer Stupidity as Conservative Party leader.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservatives lose another 20-30 seats in the next election.

Possible but the Tories are more or less down to their core now so I still think modest gains are more likely than losses.  While harping on the scandal may seem silly and most may not care, generally that is what opposition parties do, their job is not to be nice to the government but to go after their weaknesses.  Governments never lose on single issues, its when enough baggage develops.  At the moment the Liberals need a lot more baggage to lose, but as an opposition your goal is to speed that up.  The real problem the Tories face is with the NDP weakness it will likely be a two way race so even if they won 130 seats (not saying they will not just saying what if) they would still remain in opposition and the Liberals even at that could still get a majority.

[mileslunn]

Actually, I'd like to get the rooms opinion on this.

What issues/strategies should Scheer and Singh be pushing from now until the writ drops?

I would say you should still go after those.  Saying no one cares is simply not true.  A more accurate statement is one scandal won't move the needle much, but if it happens repeatedly it will.  So its more you establish a pattern of behavior than one off.  Also Scheer and Singh need to develop policies but at the same time don't reveal too many now as any popular one they propose, the Liberals will just adopt so that is why you keep the powder dry until closer to the election so the Liberals cannot react.

For the NDP I would recommend the following.  Run on a truly progressive platform and focus on creating a new national program, I think pharmacare would be a good one or perhaps even guaranteed annual income or something along those lines.  Otherwise don't get to caught up on bringing PR or other left wing causes, focus on pocket book issues that will help those left behind.  Also promise to close the stock option loophole which the Liberals promised but haven't done yet and make affordability and helping those left behind the main theme.  Trudeau is appearing fairly left wing, but a lot of that is more talk than action.

For the Conservatives I would focus on fiscal responsibility and the upcoming economic challenges.  Otherwise things like lower taxes and balanced budgets for sure but those alone won't be enough.  Instead I think issues like an aging population, automation they should think of conservative solutions.  They could go the cultural wars route as I do get a sense seem feel Trudeau is pushing too far on the PC front, but that is extremely risky and go easily blow up in their face.  I think rather bold economic ideas that involve smaller government but will help create strong growth is where they should go.  Erin O'Toole, Andrew Saxton, Michael Chong, and Maxime Bernier all had much more detailed plans so use some of those.  Also Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta elections will be interesting as they can learn from those.  If the Ontario PCs, CAQ, and UCP win (not a given but quite possible) they should probably try and adopt some of their more popular policies while if they lose figure out why and stay away from those.

[mileslunn]

Scheer isn't helping himself every time he harps on and on about the Agha Khan, as if anyone south of Queensway cares.

What should he be pushing exactly? Liberal corruption sounds like a winning issue to me.

Nobody ever explained what was the quid pro quo in exchange for the vacation, and the polls show that voters have simply tuned out.

Scheer should, if he is cunning, learn from Harper's ruthlessness and willingness to silence his backbenchers whose bozo eruptions doomed the 2004 Conservative campaign. But the landscape will be even worse than in 2004, since the Liberals will be eager to attack him as Harper-lite. Worse, they could attack him as Trump-lite, a charge that he will find hard to refute without alienating his base.

Before anyone says the Conservatives are at their bottom and could only go back up, keep in mind that the Liberals were in the exact same position a decade ago (30% of the vote, 100 or so seats, a leadership race that leads to an upset by a not-a-leader who goes on to lose byelections to the government). And frankly, when they're actually posting nonsense like this, it doesn't look like they really understand why they're where they are.

The NDP should appeal to those who voted Liberal and feel disappointed at a government that is basically Harper-lite with a smile. They could point out that some of Canada's biggest social achievements were done under a Liberal minority that depended on NDP support, and make inroads in inner-city ridings to at least offset their expected losses in Quebec.

Agreed Scheer needs to control the bozos.  As for going lower, possible but the problem is the Liberals are a centrist party Tories on the right and Trudeau running on a left wing platform so if you are on the right you have nowhere else to go unless it splits again.  Now perhaps many on the moderate right might stay home.  The Liberals by contrast essentially had their progressive flank go over to the NDP and right flank go over to the Conservatives.  Not saying Conservatives cannot lose, just saying I think Canada is a left leaning country, but I wouldn't say its overwhelmingly left wing, there still is a sizeable minority on the political right and at the moment they only have one political option. 

As for the vacation, I don't think it hurt the Liberals much in the polls but one scandal never brings down a government.  You make the most of it since if it becomes a repeated pattern it does become politically devastating.  Some seem to be saying the Tories should just shut up and I don't think that is the way to go.  Opposition is not there to be singing the praises of Trudeau and there is a sizeable chunk albeit minority on the right who are unhappy with Trudeau so its important to have a party speak for them.  In terms of support the reason I think they are more likely to gain than lose is more regional breakdown.

Atlantic Canada: Tories can only go in one direction and while I doubt they will pose much of a challenge to the Liberals there, I suspect they will win a few seats next time around although unless the Liberals do something stupid far less than the Liberals.

Quebec:  Agreed Liberals should gain here and Tories could lose some here, but probably won't get shut out.

Ontario: Could go either way although lets remember rural Ontario pretty much always goes conservative unless the right is divided like in the 90s so things would have to go really badly to lose more than 10 seats here and that would mean losing in many traditional strongholds.  By contrast a slight uptick and slightly better splits would pick up a whole whack of seats (They had many strong second finishes throughout the province) but will be tough to pull ahead of the Liberals and even if they did beat the Liberals here, probably just a Liberal minority due to Liberal gains in Quebec sort of like 1972.

Prairies: Could lose a few urban seats but could gain a few but would be surprised if the change is more than +/-5 in either direction.  Rural parts of the Prairies except the two northern ridings are solidly conservative so don't see that changing.

British Columbia: Could lose although from historical perspectives they are now at rock bottom, but there is some signs millennials are much more progressive than older generations so maybe a generational change.  Also NDP and Greens are strong so BC has better splits never mind if you look at provincial politics, the centre-right BC Liberals still won almost half the seats so winning back the Interior and some of the more affluent Lower Mainland ridings is certainly possible but agree winning more than half of the seats in BC unlikely although BC is quite unpredictable and wacky in its federal voting patterns so tough to predict.  The Reform/Alliance did quite well in the 90s even when the province went NDP provincially.

[mileslunn]

Actually, I'd like to get the rooms opinion on this.

What issues/strategies should Scheer and Singh be pushing from now until the writ drops?

Symbolism over substance seems to be the biggest thing the public has concerns about.

As I wrote previously though, Canadian conservatives are in every bit as much of a bubble as American ones and they want red meat.

True enough but if Scheer was smart he would do what Patrick Brown did and flip flop.  Will anger the base but they have nowhere else to go.  Definitely right the red meat policies sell well to the base but not the general public although even though Scheer's history suggests he is pretty right wing as Harper did its not that hard to convince the public you aren't provided you run on a more centrist platform.  Liberal attack ads will portray him like that and if he takes the bait or has many bozo eruptions (Hudak 2014 or Harper 2004) it will work very well.  But if he doesn't take the bait could smack of desperation (Harper 2006) nonetheless in 2006 Liberals had been in power for 13 years and people were ready for change whereas after 4 years people rarely turf a government unless they screw up badly.

[mileslunn]

While I never want to make any firm predictions considering how often the unexpected has happened, I see a Conservative majority is extremely unlikely.  Minority perhaps (but I suspect the NDP and Liberals would gang up them to keep them out).  The best case scenario for the Tories, albeit not most likely, is around 150 seats, otherwise 7 in Atlantic Canada, hold what they have in Quebec, 60 seats in Ontario, 20 seats in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 32 seats in Alberta, and 20 seats in British Columbia.  Obviously they will likely do worse, but if the Liberals continue to mess up and the Tories have a strong platform and campaign, I see this as their best case scenario.  

There's still time for a major scandal or the economy to take a downturn, but assuming neither of those happen, the trickle of unforced Liberal errors won't be good for anymore than a Tory minority and probably not even that. Eyeballing the polls, it looks like the Tories will take back a decent number of seats from the Liberals in Anglo Canada, but the Liberals will more or less break even by swallowing the NDP and Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.

Someone needs to emerge as a clear runner up in Quebec to force a minority (assuming the Tories don't pick up the pace in the ROC). The Liberals will run the table in Quebec if the polls hold and the result is something like 45-15-15-15

With Andrew Scheer Stupidity as Conservative Party leader.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the Conservatives lose another 20-30 seats in the next election.

Possible but the Tories are more or less down to their core now so I still think modest gains are more likely than losses.  While harping on the scandal may seem silly and most may not care, generally that is what opposition parties do, their job is not to be nice to the government but to go after their weaknesses.  Governments never lose on single issues, its when enough baggage develops.  At the moment the Liberals need a lot more baggage to lose, but as an opposition your goal is to speed that up.  The real problem the Tories face is with the NDP weakness it will likely be a two way race so even if they won 130 seats (not saying they will not just saying what if) they would still remain in opposition and the Liberals even at that could still get a majority.

About half of the Conservatives 33 seats are in the 905 (I think four) and 12 or so are in South West Ontario (as I describe them, the London to Windsor region and the Kitchener to Niagara region.)  Of course the Conservatives have support in South West Ontario, but the are usually very competitive ridings, except for the most rural ridings.  Pierre Polievre's riding in Ottawa I think is winnable as well.

I think the NDP could knock of Brad Trost in Saskatchewan.

In British Columbia, the Conservative held ridings of Richmond, Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo and maybe Langley-Aldergrove are all possible pick up opportunities for the Liberals.

I'm less knowledgeable about opportunities for the other parties in Alberta or Quebec.

Of course, this isn't to say that the Conservatives will lose any riding, but after the 2006 election, the Liberals continued to lose seats for a couple elections and I don't think by any means the Conservatives are down to just their core ridings.

Of the 905 ones, Durham, York-Simcoe, Dufferin-Caledon, and Wellington-Halton Hills are all fairly rural so unless something dramatic happens don't see those flipping.  Oshawa could go NDP but won't go Liberal.  Markham-Unionville is winneable and actually I was surprised the Tories held that one.  Thornhill was their best showing in Ontario, mind you it is heavily Jewish and Harper's pro-Israel stance was popular so be interesting to see if Scheer holds the Jewish vote like Harper was able to.  Milton probably would have gone Liberal had it not been for Lisa Raitt mind you all four Halton ridings were fairly close so anything from the Liberals sweeping all four to the Tories sweeping all four seems possible to me.  Flamborough-Glanbrook is fairly rural at the moment but depending on how many new subdivisions are added might be more competitive.  Niagara West is a safe Conservative one.  Niagara Falls could flip, a lot will depend if Rob Nicholson runs again or not.  If he runs then it should stay Tory, but if he steps down could flip.  In Central Ontario, Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater is the only one I could see them losing.  In Southwestern Ontario, most of the ridings they won were rural.  The only ones that have large urban components were Kitchener-Conestoga, Brantford-Brant, and Sarnia-Lambton and even in those the Tories tend to run up the margins in the rural parts but definitely could see those three flipping, but that is about it.  Pierre Polievere's riding went over 60% Tory in 2011 and even Hudak cracked the 50% mark so asides from the 2015 election, its one of the safest seats in Ontario.  A lot of civil servants were mad at Harper so you saw a stronger swing in the National Capital Region than elsewhere but how things will go going forward is tough to say.  His riding is also more rural than suburban so a lot will depend on how many new subdivisions get built as each new one benefits the Liberals.

In terms of Brad Trost, he can be defeated but only if there is a strong level of strategic voting.  His riding does include areas where the Saskatchewan Party got over 70% last provincial election and the more affluent parts of Saskatoon.  Nonetheless that was when Brad Wall was still widely popular and Brad Trost's extreme views just might cost him the riding.

In BC, all the ridings mentioned could flip although if you look at the history of BC, the Tories had their worst showing since 1968 and they've never performed that poorly in two back to back elections.

I think the bigger reason why the Liberal decline after 2006 cannot be applied here is where do they go.  The NDP under Layton was fairly moderate so he could pick up off many left leaning Liberals while the Tories while Harper had a minority also were pretty moderate so he could pick off many Blue Liberals.  He only turned rightward once he got a majority and most of those Blue Liberals ditched him then.  By contrast right now, Trudeau is a left leaning not Blue Liberal so if you are on the political right you won't be voting Liberal or NDP.  Otherwise I think the country as a whole leans to the left, but I don't think it's 75% or 80% left wing.  I think you've always had at least 30% who are on the right side of the political spectrum and thus the only way to push the Tories below that is if the right splits like it did in the 90s or if the federal Liberals become like the BC Liberals, a pro free enterprise coalition and I see neither happening.  Lets remember Liberals in 1988 and PCs in 1997 all rebounded after their massive defeat the year before so historically when parties lose usually they tend to rebound although not enough to defeat the government.  Liberals declining was an exception to the rule.

Now not saying the Tories cannot lose seats, they most certainly can, just saying they are pretty close to the core so they have to mess up really badly to fall much further.  

[mileslunn]

Miles touches on the point I was trying to make. This board and many analysts seems to have two biases when assessing Scheer's performance (and Singh and Trudeau's but it seems to come up most often with Scheer); progressive bias, and political junkie bias.

The progressive bias is not understanding that the Tories face a different calculus from the Liberals and therefore will behave in a puzzling manner to many progressives. A party with a low ceiling that needs to turn out a large base alienated from the other parties is very different from being a centrist party with a smaller base but a much higher ceiling. To apply this to the Aga Khan case: so what if there is no smoking gun? It keeps the base motivated and has the added benefit of not being prone to "bozo eruptions" like say an immigration gaffe would be.

The other side of progressive (or conservative in many cases) bias is saying things are bad politics because one doesn't like them. Take the Khadr settlement for example. I read many columns in the media and posts on Atlas discussing how the Tories were discussing non issues or risking backlash by attacking the settlement despite the bulk of Canadians opposing the decision, including a majority of Liberal and NDP supporters. This language seemed based on opposition to the Tories position rather than a rational evaluation of the Tories political strategy.

The Omar Khadr payout was almost exactly like the niqab issue in 2015: perhaps the majority of Canadians agreed with the Conservatives, but they didn't like the attitude exhibited. As a result, Scheer received virtually no post-election leadership bump.

And it's not my idle punditry. The strategy employed by the Conservatives has, materially, not worked: they have lost not one but two long-held seats to the government. They should have held these seats to at least stay in the game, and instead bizarrely spun these losses as wins. This indicates their strategy of merely motivating their base isn't working, especially when it also depends on a simultaneous Liberal slump and NDP surge (entirely outside their control).

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The Conservatives aren't the only party that can and will use that tactic. "Scheer's campaign was/is run by a neo-nazi propagandist" or "Harper is slinking around as the Conservative Party fundraising director" are also easy to digest to a target demographic.

If you look at the 12 by-elections since the last election, the Tories have seen their share of the popular vote go up in 9 down in 3 so while certainly not enough to win a general election hardly a disaster.  Yes agree those losses look bad although also both were won in 2015 largely due to local candidates and the Liberals attracted star candidates (admittedly if they do this across the country they could pick up several). 

I think the problem with many on both sides is those on the right think Trudeau is hated as much as they hate him which is false thus why he would almost certainly win an election if held today.  But I think many progressives wrongly assume support for conservative ideas is much smaller than it is.  Conservatives aren't the majority far from it, but they aren't a tiny minority, there is still a solid 30% who sit on the right side of the political spectrum.  Also calling the party extreme right works with some but I find most people make their own judgement of where they think a party lies not what those from other parties say it is.

[mileslunn]

Justin blasts Horgan for sabotaging his climate plan.

This will get interesting.  Probably a wash overall for him, but should help him amongst Liberal-Conservative swing voters who mostly support the pipeline and are BC Liberals provincially but might hurt him amongst NDP-Liberal swing voters and NDP-Green swing voters.  I've heard Horgan has a tendency to lose his temper so will see what happens.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the budget and India trip aren't helping the liberals.  Not just Forum is showing the Tories ahead (I don't for a minute believe the Tories are at 46% nationally or leading in Quebec), but now Ipsos shows them ahead by 5 points, 38% to 33% and NDP at 21%.  I still think Trudeau is favoured to win in 2019, but it seems he has been having a lot of self inflicted wounds and is somewhat arrogant.  Usually arrogance is a party's downfall so the liberals should probably stop assuming they have the next election in the bag and instead assume they are the underdog if not.  Complacency and arrogance are usually party's downfalls.

[mileslunn]

Two new Polls out today and neither good for Trudeau

Angus Reid

Cons 40%
Libs 30%
NDP 19%

Nanos (four week rolling so Tories might have pulled ahead but narrowest margin since 2015 election nonetheless)

Libs 35.9%
Cons 34.8%
NDP 18.5%

Also on best PM, party power index, and leadership approval Liberals at record low so far and Tories at high point.  Not saying the Liberals are out of it, they still have lots of time to recover, but probably might want to change tactics a bit.  It seems not just federally but provincially in Ontario, there is a goal of who can out left each other between the Liberals and NDP forgetting it is the centre not left where elections are usually won.  Millennials may want to move leftward, but Gen Xers, Boomers, and Silent generation don't.  Otherwise it appears Red Tory and Blue Liberal support is leaking away to the Tories.  Off course they may find Scheer and/or Doug Ford too extreme, but the fact it is their right flank not left flank deserting them suggests they might want to pay a bit more attention to it.

[mileslunn]

Right now progressives clearly dominate most levels of government, but will be interesting if a rightward shift is happening.  Both Doug Ford in Ontario and Jason Kenney in Alberta are well to the right of centre and have large leads in the polls so will be interesting what affect that has on national relations and conservatism should both win.  Also Quebec could swing rightward too with the CAQ ahead in most polls.

I do wonder though if Kenney, Ford, and Legault win in each of their provinces, that will help Trudeau since people will want someone on the left to balance the right wing dominance at the provincial level from the Rockies to the Atlantic or does it really matter?

[mileslunn]

Ontarians tend to vote for the opposite party that is in power federally. 2003 & 2007 are the only recent exceptions.

You mean 2015, not 2007 as then we had a federal Conservative government.

[mileslunn]

More bad news for the Trudeau government https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down/ .

Cons 38%
Lib 31%
NDP 23%

NDP seems a bit on the high side compared to others, but the trend seems to show the past few weeks have not been a good one for the Trudeau government.  Off course there is still plenty of time to recover before the election and of the Conservative support only 30-33% could be described as solid, the additional 5-7% are dissatisfied Liberals parking their votes there and depending on how things go between now and the next election may stay there or return to the Liberals.  But the Liberals need to take this seriously and make changes if they want to win them back.  It can easily be done, but will they or not is the question.  Also Nanos has a poll out tonight so interesting if the Liberals will still be in the lead or not.  If the Tories do poll ahead, it will be the first time in 2.5 years they have done so and if they break the 35% mark, that will be the first time since 2012 they have done that.

[mileslunn]

Nanos has the Liberals still slightly ahead so whichever one is right seems support is soft and we would probably get a minority government now, but a lot can and will change in the next 18 months.

Libs 38.1%
Cons 34.7%
NDP16.3%

[mileslunn]

There is a bog difference in the NDP number.
Perhaps the Ipsos numbers in Ontario is more for the provincial election than federal numbers.

Or maybe people are confusing the two as provincial is coming up soon as its true the Ontario numbers look more realistic for provincial than federal as least with respect to the Liberals and NDP.  The Tory numbers are actually almost identical in Ontario, 43% in Nanos, while 42% in Ipsos, but NDP vs. Liberals much different.

[mileslunn]

Interesting article by Eric Grenier on Trudeau's midterm slump http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-midmandate-polls-1.4597222 .  Looking at the past it seems he could certainly recover, but also just as easily slide further.  Usually parties recover by changing channels so probably needs to focus more on economic issues and less virtue signaling and maybe be in front of the camera a little less.  At the same time if Ford wins in Ontario that should help him there as Quebec and Atlantic Canada will likely go Liberal no matter what in most seats, BC will be a mix of the three parties, Prairies mostly Tory, so comes down to Ontario where unpopularity of Wynne is probably dragging him down.  Looking at past first term provincial governments, at this point, this is what I've found.

BC:

NDP in the 90s: Trailing by over 25 points, but did manage to come back and win in 1996 although this was before fixed election dates so had an extra year and also change of leader.

BC Liberals 2004:  I think 18 months out the BC Liberals were around 45% so close to what they got in 2005, but NDP was much lower than the 42% they got due to vote splits.  However, 12 months out, the NDP had pulled ahead and wasn't until the final four months the BC Liberals regained the lead.

SK:

NDP in 90s: Believe Romanow had a big lead at this point, but not sure if he went up or down.

Saskatchewan Party circa 2010: Brad Wall was polling north of 60% so similar to the results in 2011.

MB:

NDP circa 2002:  NDP was in the lead but I believe polls showed things tighter than they actually were in 2003 so NDP gained.

ON:

Libs circa 1988: David Peterson had massive lead, but lost in 1990 on opportunistic early election call

NDP circa 1993: Trailing very badly in the polls, I believe below what they got in 1995, mind you Liberals not PCs were in the lead.

PCs circa 1998: I believe polls were tied or Liberals slightly ahead but in the final year PCs regained the lead and won in 1999.

Liberals circa 2006: Liberals tied or slightly ahead but in minority territory so did better in 2007 that polls at this point.

Actually in Ontario, since 1995, the governing party has always rebounded somewhat and the opposition in each case dropped a bit.

QC:

PLQ circa 2006: Charest trailing in the polls although starting to recover a bit.  I think the PLQ actually got roughly the same percentage as polls said in 2007, the big differnece is PQ plummeted while ADQ surged.

NB:

PCs circa 2002: PCs led by Bernard Lord had a massive lead in the polls while in 2003 they barely hung onto power

Liberals circa 2009: Liberals ahead in the polls, but plummeted after the Hydro-Quebec deal and ended up losing quite badly in 2010

PCs circa 2013: Were trailing by 20 points so recovered a bit but not enough to win in 2014.

PEI:

Liberals circa 2010: Had a 20 point lead so tightened although I think Liberal support only dropped a few points, but PCs surged by 10 points while third parties fell.  Liberals still won handidly in 2011 anyways.

NS:

NDP Circa 2012: Trailing badly in the polls but did even worse on election day.  Liberal support was pretty much bang on what they got but PCs climbed and NDP fell further.

Liberals circa 2016: Liberals had a 25 point + lead yet narrowed to only 3.5 points in 2017 election.

NL:

PCs circa 2006: PCs had big lead then, but grew even larger in 2007

So as you can see certainly Trudeau can eaisly recover to majority territory, but also the Tories (I don't think they are likely to get a majority BTW) could also climb into majority territory too based on history.  Ironically enough since the 80s, the Tories in every election save 1993 have always outperformed what polls showed them 18 months earlier even in the elections they lost.  For the Liberals they have underperformed their polls 18 months in every election save 2015 when they outperformed them (NDP underperformed there).

[mileslunn]

Speaking of Peterson, why on earth did he call that snap election in 1990? He had a massive majority so it's not like he could expect to improve on his 1987 result.

He saw the recession coming and knew that would hurt his poll numbers so wanted the election before then.  Same reason Harper in 2008 and Prentice in 2015 went.  In Harper's case it worked out okay (although I think he would have won a majority had he let the opposition take him down) and Prentice it didn't.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet Research will have a big poll out next week for each province and federally.  Will be interesting if it shows Tories ahead like some have or Liberals well ahead as Nanos does as it seems there is little consensus on federal polling.  Mind you digging deeper into the Nanos numbers suggests there are a lot of soft supporters on the fence so maybe that is why.  Claimed there was a Kinder Morgan surprise so will be interesting what this is.  Have the BC Liberals regained the lead in BC or have the NDP either pulled ahead or significantly closed the gap in Alberta?

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their first part of their mega poll and BC is now out on scribd.com.  Quite interesting.  The horse race in BC only for federal parties is as follows:

Cons 39%
Libs 25%
NDP 20%
Greens 13%

While provincially looks like some movement over the pipeline as other polls seem to be hinting.  That being said with no other direct polls, it would be nice to get confirmation to see if this is the result of real movement or just noise.  Either way if the numbers are true, it makes sense on where the parties stand on PR.  BC Liberal majority under FTFP, while nail biter between centre-right (BC Liberals + BC Conservatives) and centre-left (NDP + Greens) under PR.

BC Libs 37%
NDP 31%
Greens 17%
BC Cons 13%

So centre-right is 50% and centre-left is 48%, which is actually pretty close to what it was in 2013, but well off last election.  Off course always best to view this one with a bit of skepticism.  Tomorrow Alberta and national are out although a Jan Brown poll just on the issues seems to hint the pipeline is not doing the NDP any favours while UCP leading on who is best to handle different issues by a sizeable margin but no horse race numbers.  Insights West and Angus-Reid also both show most in BC are now for the pipeline and support has risen.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet research is out with their omnibus poll.  The numbers for BC are a bit different than posted above as these appear to be different surveys, but still broadly similar.  It appears the pipeline dispute is helping Notley who has narrowed the gap quite a bit, while hurting Horgan who has fallen behind.  Nationally, the Liberals are still ahead, but with Conservatives at 37.1% and NDP at only 11.9% it appears lack of splits on the left is helping the Liberals and hurting the Conservatives despite support being similar to what they got in 2006 and 2008 when they won.

National:

Libs 40.4%
Cons 37.1%
NDP 11.9%
Greens 5.9%
BQ 2.6%

Alberta:

UCP 48.6%
NDP 35.4%
Libs 6.2%
AB party 5.1%
Greens 2.4%

BC:

BC Libs 36.8%
NDP 34.8%
Greens 15.7%
BC Cons 11.4%

BC Conservatives at 11.4% seems rather high so if the next election is held under FTFP and these numbers hold (obviously with no election on the horizon, they will change), that could mean a bigger BC Liberal win.  If we go to PR, narrow edge for the NDP/Greens as it is 48.2% for BC Libs + BC Cons vs. 50.5% for BC NDP + BC Greens, but does show switching systems does not guarantee the NDP and Greens will get back in.  In fact it could actually pull the BC Liberals further to the right as I suspect for the BC Conservatives backing, they would demand certain concessions such as scrapping the carbon tax and perhaps a few other things.

[mileslunn]

What is it with Forum Research and their obviously pro conservative polling?

Forum has been showing the Tories ahead in contrast with others so probably a methological problem.  If you look at the breakdown, there is no way in hell the Tories are in the lead in Quebec.  Yes they are now in solid second place and north of 20%, but not in front.  Atlantic Canada numbers are a bit tighter than others but could be chalked up to margin of error.  Ontario numbers at least seem plausible, Prairies Tories a bit on the high side.  The Tories are at 73% in Alberta and while they wouldn't make much difference in seats, I suspect they are not that high as even Alberta has a strong progressive minority, its not monolithically right wing.  British Columbia at least seems believable as both Angus-Reid and Mainstreet suggest Tories due to pipeline politics have pulled ahead there.  My guess is either things are tied or Liberals are slightly ahead but if an election were called today it would probably be a Liberal minority IMHO.

[mileslunn]

NDP under Jagmeet Singh is looking like an unmitigated disaster. Not going for a seat in the House was a ridiculous decision. He comes off as an over-confident high-school debater on TV and could have seriously benefited from having some practice and actual attention in the HoC. His caucus doesn’t respect him because its members don’t know him, and they’re probably all losing faith by the day with poll numbers like these.

Sure, Mulcair made some tactical errors, but surely there must be some party members regretting that they gave him the boot. After Justin’s sanctimonious and empty tenure as PM, Mulcair might actually be exactly the kind of leader people would want. Kind of a shame.

That is probably true although I am not sure changing leaders would do much.  The problem the NDP faces as the Liberals have abandoned the centre and moved to the left into traditional NDP territory so they have little space left.  If they tried to move into the centre where the Liberals are that wouldn't work as most Blue Liberals and Red Tories can swing between the Tories and Liberals but will never vote NDP.  So they are between a rock and a hard place.  The best strategy for the NDP is just wait until Trudeau screws up badly as I suspect any votes who loses to the Tories will be in 2019, but after that so when people tire of him the NDP much like the Ontario NDP who is almost identical to the Ontario Liberals will stand most to benefit.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their first part of their mega poll and BC is now out on scribd.com.  Quite interesting.  The horse race in BC only for federal parties is as follows:

Cons 39%
Libs 25%
NDP 20%
Greens 13%

While provincially looks like some movement over the pipeline as other polls seem to be hinting.  That being said with no other direct polls, it would be nice to get confirmation to see if this is the result of real movement or just noise.  Either way if the numbers are true, it makes sense on where the parties stand on PR.  BC Liberal majority under FTFP, while nail biter between centre-right (BC Liberals + BC Conservatives) and centre-left (NDP + Greens) under PR.

BC Libs 37%
NDP 31%
Greens 17%
BC Cons 13%

So centre-right is 50% and centre-left is 48%, which is actually pretty close to what it was in 2013, but well off last election.  Off course always best to view this one with a bit of skepticism.  Tomorrow Alberta and national are out although a Jan Brown poll just on the issues seems to hint the pipeline is not doing the NDP any favours while UCP leading on who is best to handle different issues by a sizeable margin but no horse race numbers.  Insights West and Angus-Reid also both show most in BC are now for the pipeline and support has risen.

Have the BC Conservatives actually reestablished themselves or are their double digit polls just people who aren't aware of the difference between federal and provincial politics?

Largely the latter although I think this fall's referendum on whether to switch to PR or not will be key for them.  If PR passes, I suspect they will get around those numbers, but if voters opt to stick with FTFP, I suspect those will fall back to low single digits.