Do Republicans think Mitt Romney will win? (user search)
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  Do Republicans think Mitt Romney will win? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Do Republicans think Mitt Romney will win?  (Read 2124 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Canada


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« on: November 04, 2012, 11:48:42 PM »

I am not  Romney supporter, but I think it is possible he could win but not likely.  I would say Romney has about a 30% chance of winning so if a Romney supporter it would be silly to throw in the towel now and likewise if an Obama supporter it would be equally silly to assume the election is locked up.  I doubt there will be a strong last minute swing towards either party, but I do think turnout could make a difference and which side does a better job of getting their supporters out.  This is especially important in the swing states where a stronger turnout by either side could tip the balance.  And contrary to some Republicans I don't think the GOP has a huge advantage here.  Dems may not be as excited about voting for Obama as 2008, but many are terrified of a GOP victory and will vote just to stop this.  Likewise I think I don't think a large number of GOP supporters are actually excited about Romney winning, rather than despise Obama and want him removed from office.  Otherwise most on both sides are voting against the other not for.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,837
Canada


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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 12:03:43 AM »

Well, I saw how bad pollsters did in the Alberta election earlier this year, and have been weary of them ever since. However, that election had a high number of undecideds and represented a huge change in the electoral landscape there. This election does not have a lot of undecideds. The only worry I have is the effect of all of this voter ID BS on the election.

I was thinking the same, but I should note unlike Canada, the US election cycle is much longer so votes tend to stablize more towards the end.  Lets remember even if the final week numbers were still moving around in Alberta and Canada federally.  In the case of 2006 federal election which was 8 weeks vs. the normal six weeks the polls were a lot closer.  Also Americans are far more polarized than Canadians so it is a lot harder to get someone to switch parties.  Still it is possible they could be wrong.  Anybody know more about 1948 when newspapers read Dewey defeats Truman when in fact it wasn't even close.  Mind you US politics up until the last decade was far less polarized and the swing vote was much larger than today 
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