TIME's election guide's map

[mileslunn]

I don't think Minnesota is totally safe for Obama, but definitely favours him.  I could see Romney winning the white house without winning Minnesota whereas if Obama loses Minnesota, I cannot see him being re-elected.  I think Romney's chances in Pennsylvania are just as good if not slightly better than Michigan and Wisconsin.  All three are lean Obama, but far from a lock.  As for North Carolina, I would put it in the lean Romney camp, but not a lock by any stretch of the imagination.  Obama could conceivably win Arizona, but highly unlikely, otherwise I would say it is a 90/10 chance in favour of Romney.  Although I would be surprised if Romney doesn't win Indiana and Missouri, I think Obama's chances are better in both states than Arizona.  As for New Mexico, a lot has to do with the fact over 40% of the state's population are Latinos.  In 2000, Bush got 35% of the Latino vote while in 2004 he got 44%, by contrast Romney is pulling around 25-30% amongst Latinos so if the party did better here I think New Mexico would be a toss up.  Still I think Romney has a chance albeit a long one.