Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[CatoMinor]

In more under the radar news there is actually a competitive race for the Libertarian nomination for Governor.

Kathie Glass is the front runner and the nominee in 2010, 2014, and for Supreme Court in 2016. Coming from the more conservative wing of the party most notably with her stance on border control. Has the most appeal to Tea Party voters who for whatever wont vote for Abbot.

Kory Watkins is definitely representing the an/cap wing of the party. His campaign seems focused on legalizing marijuana and eliminating property taxes (and then all others). 

Mark Tippetts is a city councilman from Lago Vista. Tippetts' campaign is largely based around opposing Trump and any border wall. He has Mark Miller (2016 candidate for Railroad Commissioner and endorsed by all the major newspapers) and Mary Ruwart in his corner which can go a long way. If he can he get his name out more and build up a bigger social media presence he may be worth keeping an eye on as a potential nominee.

Finally we come to Patrick Smith, another an/cap. He claims to be running for "Not-Governor" i.e. governing by 100% by the Non-Aggression Principle.

Currently I am in the process of trying to get all four to come out to Huntsville where our county's LP will host a Gubernatorial debate in Maech

[CatoMinor]

In more under the radar news there is actually a competitive race for the Libertarian nomination for Governor.

Kathie Glass is the front runner and the nominee in 2010, 2014, and for Supreme Court in 2016. Coming from the more conservative wing of the party most notably with her stance on border control. Has the most appeal to Tea Party voters who for whatever wont vote for Abbot.

Kory Watkins is definitely representing the an/cap wing of the party. His campaign seems focused on legalizing marijuana and eliminating property taxes (and then all others). 

Mark Tippetts is a city councilman from Lago Vista. Tippetts' campaign is largely based around opposing Trump and any border wall. He has Mark Miller (2016 candidate for Railroad Commissioner and endorsed by all the major newspapers) and Mary Ruwart in his corner which can go a long way. If he can he get his name out more and build up a bigger social media presence he may be worth keeping an eye on as a potential nominee.

Finally we come to Patrick Smith, another an/cap. He claims to be running for "Not-Governor" i.e. governing by 100% by the Non-Aggression Principle.

Currently I am in the process of trying to get all four to come out to Huntsville where our county's LP will host a Gubernatorial debate in Maech

You'd think Tippetts would be the frontrunner since he's actually held office

Kathie's main strengths are her name recognition and well organized. Maybe if he can grow his campaign and demonstrate that he can get his name out there in a positive way he will have a real shot at the nomination.

[CatoMinor]

In more under the radar news there is actually a competitive race for the Libertarian nomination for Governor.

It ain't easy competing for the privilege of being the person who gets 1.5% of the vote in November.

Better than zero. And at least we can hold our own enough in races when it counts to get the 5% that gives us automatic ballot access.

[CatoMinor]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jzJWx-lnhLvlhbY5BNHExAX2_QAoBM8q3e05idU580Y/edit?usp=sharing

Here is what I have so far, every competitive State House race with Party, candidates on both sides, whether or not they are tea party vs establishment/business ( a big metric for tx gop) , and whether or not it has advanced to a runoff, will be adding more races soon.

For TX-08 put it as not tea party held. Brady has faced somewhat serious challenges twice in a row from people on his right.

[CatoMinor]

https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-elections-2018-primary-early-voting/ you can track the highest populated 10 counties here

Those are good numbers for Democrats, but not #TurnTexasBlue numbers. They'll need to flip Tarrant County and run up their numbers in Harris better.

[CatoMinor]

I do have to say though, if they right people win the primaries next month, this might be the strongest slate of candidates/sacrificial lambs the TX Dems have put forward in in years. Although although almost anything is an improvement over Wendy Davis.

[CatoMinor]

I got home from work yesterday to find out O'Rouke was in town and had just finished speaking a mile away.

[CatoMinor]

This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

[CatoMinor]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

[CatoMinor]

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

That would literally take some Jones vs Moore ridiculous scenario to break 80% in Travis which I don't see happening.

The more realistic path would be 65%-70% in Travis. 60-65% in Bexar, 55-58% in Harris, 65% in Dallas. Flipping Tarrant, Nueces, Brazos, Jefferson, Williamson, and Hays Counties, and narrowing the gap in Montgomery, Brazoria, Galveston, and Denton counties.

The 2016 swing map shows Democrats making gains for the most part exactly where they need to, with the exception of the South Texas and the Valley.   

[CatoMinor]

This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

Hmm...how much of the vote do you think the nominees get in the general? Or, rather, how energized are the Libertarians and how organized are they?

Optomistally 5%, realistically 2-3%. The LPTX is slowley bure surely growing. more counties are being organized and new activists are popping up. Heck, one of the gubernatorial candidates is an elected official from the Austin area. But we face a pretty big headwind when Abbot is relativly popular and if the dems nominate Valdez she can solidify much of the Dem base, so no ridding the coattails of a protest vote this year

[CatoMinor]

The part of Texas that is comparable to the Deep South is only the eastern most half of East Texas, Deep East Texas.

[CatoMinor]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

[CatoMinor]

Beto will get 70% in travis obviously, probably 75% tbh. It is shifting super far to the left by every second. Dems got a combined primary vote of like 75% there despite sucking statewide.

I can see beto breaking 75% in travis even if he loses by 6 statewide. Beto is an amazing candidate for hipster Austin.

Beto even got 86% of the primary vote in Travis whereas Cruz somehow only got 79%

Beto is an amazing fit for hipster Democrats in Austin, but they are not the entire city. I can see Beto, if everything goes right, getting high 60's or maybe even touching 70, but after that point it is a pretty steep hill to climb to adding to those percentage points.

Dude, Hillary got f'ing 67%. Beto got 76% in the D vs R primary vote (even as R's outvoted D's by 20% statewide). The young republicans in Austin prob won't turnout whereas the young democrats will, leading to a lopside margin there. It's also increased its population by 20% since 2010. I'm pretty sure Beto easily breaks 70 and gets 75%.

I really don't think you realize how far gone Austin is. they are 100% moonbats.

Im in Austin quite a bit, and in the process of moving there, Id like to think I have a slightly better idea of the area. The primary numbers are a decent measure of enthusiasm but not gospel on how the general will turn out. Austin is very leftwing for TX  and moving further left by the day, but there are still a sizable portion of GOP voters. Its not San Francisco county yet.

And Hilldawg got 65.7

[CatoMinor]

In a YUGE upset, Mark Tippets has won the nomination of the Libertarians for Governor. He beat Kathie Glass, Patrick Smith, and Kory Watkins.

His campaign has the standard LP positions but he is placing emphasis on opposing Trump and his immigration policies, most notably his wall. His Spanish is pretty good as well.

[CatoMinor]

A a YUGE upset, Mark Tippets has won the nomination of the Libertarians for Governor. He beat Kathie Glass, Patrick Smith, and Kory Watkins.

His campaign has the standard LP positions but he is placing emphasis on opposing Trump and his immigration policies, most notably his wall. His Spanish is pretty good as well.

Bad for Dems, good for Repubs.

Abbot is popular enough that it likely won't make a difference to either of them. It would only matter if the race was close, which I don't see happening. For the LP campaign the real objective is getting 5% so they can keep automatic ballot access.

[CatoMinor]

I expect Valdez will win in the high 50's to low 60's. It could be closer but I would be suprisd if White won.

[CatoMinor]

Tippets might be a good protest vote if Valdez wins on Tuesday, which I think she will.

I would vote for Andrew White over Abbott, but not Valdez.

Fixed

[CatoMinor]

Here is the current Texas Senate map, as of the 12th of October when Peter "Pete" P. Flores takes office.



And below are the Senate seats up for 2018, with District 19 already having been decided.




The only seat that should be on the radar as obviously competitive is Konni Burton in District 10. This district was Wendy Davis's and Burton is tied to things such as bathroom legislation.

Senate District 30 (North Dallas Suburbs and Oklahoma border) will be getting a new member, likely the Republican Pat Fallon who successfully primary'd Estes in what will give Dan Patrick another strong supporter in the Senate.


Unless Dems make some surprise pick ups, Patrick should be a in a fairly powerful position in January.

[CatoMinor]

In a somewhat surprising turn of events, in addition to SD-10 Democrats seem to have a chance in Sen Districts 16 and 17 as well now.

SD-16 is suburban Dallas represented by Don Huffines, on the Rand Paul side of the GOP.

SD-17 is part of the Gulf Coast and then connects northward into the rich white part of Houston, represented by Joan Huffman. It is normally a safe R district and would certainly be the least likely of the 3 to flip.

[CatoMinor]

I wonder why Abbot is so popular (relative to other GOP governors) among Atlas Dems, looking at the endorsement page.

He is your standard right wing Governor with a yuge warchest.

[CatoMinor]

I wonder why Abbot is so popular (relative to other GOP governors) among Atlas Dems, looking at the endorsement page.

He is your standard right wing Governor with a yuge warchest.

Valdez is a weak candidate running a very poor campaign and Texas doesn't really have any maor problems right now.

I support Lupe because shes the lesser of two evils but I mean like shes done some bad stuff like torturing prisoners and working with ice more than any other sherriff

Wait seriously??

Dems went with identity politics over the "electable" candidate in several states, but they can at least take solace that it seems to have been the right call in Florida and possibly Georgia. But it's not like they threw away a winnable race, White would probably be doing better but highly unlikely it would be in O'Rourke vs Cruz territory.

[CatoMinor]

Huffman held on. Democrats picked off Huffines and Burton (Wendy Davis's old seat)

Last I saw they were at D+12 for the Texas House.

[CatoMinor]

If the GOP legislature screws the pooch this session there is a very real possibility that next time the house is at risk and the Senate's procedural majority.

 

[CatoMinor]

In case anyone missed last week's big news, it seems that Bonnen will be the next Speaker. This is a huge victory for the moderates who support bipartisan committee chairmanships.

Looks like another round of Senate vs House instead of R vs D.