Serious or not serious

[The Duke]

There are always a dozen (or more) names bandied about a few years out of a Presidential election.  Most of them come to be seen as not serious contenders.  In 1996, Pete Wilson, Dick Lugar, and Arlen Specter ran for President, none got very far.  In 2000, Elizabeth Dole, Steve Forbes, and Bill Bradley ran, and went nowhere fast.  In 2004, Bob Graham, Dick Gephardt, and Wes Clark ran and sunk like an Argentine frigate in the Falklands War.  These are not fringe people or small time names, but they just didn't go anywhere.

Of the major names mentioned as candidates, who is a serious contender who can actually garner large numbers of votes and raise serious money and win primaries and caucuses, and who are the "President" Pete Wilsons of the future?  And who will not run at all, the "President" Colin Powells of the future?

Republicans:
John McCain
Rudy Giuliani
George Allen
Bill Frist
Mitt Romney
Chuck Hagel
Mark Sanford
George Pataki
Rick Santorum
Sam Brownback
Tim Pawlenty
Newt Gingrich
Condie Rice
Tom Tancredo

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Evan Bayh
Mark Warner
John Kerry
Tom Vilsack
Bill Richardson
Russell Feingold

[The Duke]

Republicans:
John McCain-Serious
Rudy Giuliani-Serious
George Allen-Serious
Bill Frist-Won't Run
Mitt Romney-Serious
Chuck Hagel-Not Serious
Mark Sanford-Not Serious
George Pataki-Not Serious
Rick Santorum-Won't Run
Sam Brownback-Not Serious
Tim Pawlenty-Won't Run
Newt Gingrich-Not Serious
Condie Rice-Won't Run
Tom Tancredo-Not Serious

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton-Very Very Serious
Joe Biden-Semi Serious
Evan Bayh-Semi Serious
Mark Warner-Semi Serious
John Kerry-Won't Run
Tom Vilsack-Not Serious
Bill Richardson-Won't Run
Russell Feingold-Semi Serious

So McCain, Giuliani, Allen, and Romney are where its at for Republicans.  Clinton above the rest, with a pellatong of Biden, Feingold, Bayh, and Warner for the Democrats.

I say McCain is serious because he is the leading foreign policy light in the GOP.  Giuliani is Giuliani, and has certain obvious advantages.  Allen plays the George W. Bush role of 2008, though it is yet to be seen if the Bush 2000 campaign will succeed in the 2008 climate.  Romney is smart and slick, a very good TV presence.

Ultimately McCain will fall because of his age and health and lack of trust among the base.  Giuliani will fall because he is far too liberal on social issues even for most moderates.  In the end, we'll be on Super Tuesday with George Allen and Mitt Romney.

On the Democratic side, Hillary is obviously by far the front runner now.  If people want a John Kerry in 2008 Joe Biden is that person.  If they want a Howard Dean, Feingold is that guy, and if they want to run a Republican light, Bayh and Warner are what you're looking for.

In the end, I don't think Democrats are looking for a moderate or another Kerry.  Either Hillary will win or the DUers will pick a crazy like Feingold.  Almost certainly Hillary will raise too much money to be touched.