2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results

[homelycooking]

I've been crunching numbers for the past hour town-by-town in CT. In towns in which 100% of precincts have reported, representing about 25% of the total vote statewide, Malloy has picked up about 6,000 votes over his 2010 performance. No big cities are completely in yet, so a low turnout there could yet elect Foley. Bridgeport is significantly underperforming its 2010 result for Malloy.

[homelycooking]

Malloy's still doing well. If he can limit his losses due to low urban turnout to about 10,000 votes over 2010, he's good to go.

[homelycooking]

Hartford has 9 of 24 precincts in. Meriden is 0 of 13, New Britain 0 of 17. Foley has underperformed in many Republican towns - now it remains to be seen how badly Malloy underperformed in the cities. Malloy's picked up about 10,000 votes over 2010 from the 100% reporting towns.

[homelycooking]

I don't think Foley can make up enough ground to win, but I'll reserve judgment until Bridgeport or Hartford gives us complete figures.

I'm getting my numbers from AP.

[homelycooking]

Foley is running about 14,000 votes behind his 2010 performance in the 131 100% reporting towns. If he's ahead by less than 2,000 with about two thirds of the urban vote left to report, I don't think he can net the 20,000 votes in the big cities that he would need for a win, let alone match his 2010 result.

Since I'm about to doze off at the keyboard, I predict that Malloy will win reelection with a margin of between 10,000 and 15,000 votes. Good night!

[homelycooking]

Newtown had the largest swing to Malloy at almost 18%. Several towns' unofficial totals from the SoTS are incorrect (Woodbury, Avon, Colchester and Watertown in particular), so this map is not authoritative. Election results reporting in CT is still very much a 20th century affair.

Very few towns changed hands.

Foley to Malloy: Lyme, East Lyme, Derby, Danbury, Waterford
Malloy to Foley: Chaplin

[homelycooking]

[homelycooking]

He's from Warren, which is split between districts 67 and 68. Not sure which precinct he resides in.