Possible Greek Referendum 2011 and Election.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Some background on the election.

Last election the Socialists (the Panhellenic Socialist Movement or PASOK) won while the Conservatives (New Democracy or ND) came in second. Other parties included the Communists (Communists, KKE) the Nationalists (Popular Orthodox Rally, LAOS) and the Left (Coalition of the Radical Left, SYRIZA)

At the last election the results were as follows:
PASOK - 160
ND - 91
KKE - 21
LAOS - 15
SYRIZA - 13
The Greens, Ecologist Greens) missed the 3% threshold, taking only 2.5% of the vote.

The election system is a form of PR where 260 seats are assigned based on vote, with an additional 40 seats given to the winner of the election to help make stable majorities.

October polls show...
ND - 31.5%
PASOK - 22.2%
KKE - 10.5%
SYRIZA - 9.5%
LAOS - 9%
Greens - 3%
and DL, at 5%, DL being a new party, the Democratic Left, that seems between PASOK and SYRIZA on the issues.

According to my calculations - and since the last time I did this people threw a hissyfit I will clarify, I am using poll numbers, microsoft excel, and the sentence above regarding how elections work in Greece; I am not a magicman or genie - according to my calculations, the results of an election on these poll numbers would be...

ND   -   130
PASOK   -   64
KKE - 30
SYRIZA   -   27
LAOS   -   26
DL   -   14
GREEN   -   9

Which might cause instability as there are no natural coalition partners for ND.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Your poll and projection seem to have left out the KKE which I´m pretty sure haven´t gone away...

Oh my. I will recheck my work.

Fixd

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Word is that a coalition may be possible to avoid an election.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

More: he is prepared to scrap the Referendum.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

--According to Reuters, Mr Papandreou suggested to cabinet members earlier that he was prepared to let the idea of the referendum go. "I will be glad even if we don't go to a referendum, which was never a purpose in itself. I'm glad that all this discussion has at least brought a lot of people back to their senses," Mr Papandreou said in the text of his speech released to media.--

BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15570986

If AL is around, can this thread be tossed over to IntDis, for possible merger with another thread?


More: "I will talk to (opposition leader Antonis) Samaras so that we examine the next steps on the basis of a wider consensus," the leader added.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to the French ambassador to Canada, a Greek Referendum is still "not off the table"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Seems like a political ploy. Lets examine.

The assumption needs to be that a Referendum would result in a NO vote to the bailout.
And
The assumption needs to be that such a rejection would mean bankruptcy for Greece, and, being kicked out of the EU.

With that in mind, saying to the opposition "Back me or I will force a referendum" forces them to be like

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What the hell is DESY??

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Okay, these people are
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Alliance_(Greece)

Was I the only one who did not know? This is why I hate these threads sometimes.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

But Wikipedia did not have the answer. It calls the party DA, and it took me 10 minutes of searching to dig up DISI.

I feel like a fool/idiot when I resort to english names, or when I simplify, but clearly I'm not the only one who gets lost here.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How is the Greek system more rigged than Italy?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How is the Greek system more rigged than Italy?