Seat redistribution in Canada

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

To Al: if you think this better belongs in International Discussion, feel free to move it.

Harper has commented today http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/10/14/pol-harper-new-seats.html that Quebec could get more seats in redistribution. Here is some quick math. There are 63 seats that won't change. 14 in MB, 14 in SK, 11 in NS, 10 in NB, 7 in NL, 4 in PE, and 1 in each Territory. While the boundaries will move about, the number per-province will not change. Therefore the SP or Smaller Provinces, are not part of this discussion.

Current:
SP - 63 - 20.45% = Pct seats - (13.89%) = Pct pop
AB - 28 - 9.09% - (10.91%)
BC - 36 - 11.69% - (13.28%)
QC - 75 - 24.35% - (23.18%)
ON - 106 - 34.42% - (38.73%)
Total - 308 seats

This is as many seats as you could add. Anything beyond this would increase Manitoba to 15 seats.

SP - 63 - 15.87% - (13.89%)
AB - 43 - 10.83% - (10.91%)
BC - 51 - 12.85% - (13.28%)
QC - 90 - 22.67% - (23.18%)
ON - 150 - 37.78% - (38.73%)
Total - 397 seats

The maximum to keep Quebec at it's current level:

SP 63 - 17.12% - 13.89%
AB 37 - 10.05% - 10.91%
BC 45 - 12.23% - 13.28%
QC 90 - 24.46% - 23.18%
ON 133 - 36.14% - 38.73%
Total - 368 seats

This was the originally expected change:
SP 63 - 18.64% - 13.89%
AB 35 - 10.36% - 10.91%
BC 41 - 12.13% - 13.28%
QC 75 - 22.19% - 23.18%
ON 124 - 36.69% - 38.73%
Total - 338 seats

This may become the new change:
SP 63 - 18.10% - 13.89%
AB 35 - 10.06% - 10.91%
BC 41 - 11.78% - 13.28%
QC 85 - 24.43% - 23.18%
ON 124 - 35.63% - 38.73%
Total - 348

Or, this may become the new change:

SP 63 - 18.37% - 13.89%
AB 35 - 10.20% - 10.91%
BC 41 - 11.95% - 13.28%
QC 80 - 23.32% - 23.18%
ON 124 - 36.15% - 38.73%
Total - 343

The more I read the article, the more likely the final proposal seems to be what Harper is thinking. He specifically said population, and not current levels of support, and this is the only proposal that keeps Quebec's seat levels on par with it's population levels.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

For the record, this is what things would look like if we used the current formula.

SP - 63 - 20.06% - (13.89%)
AB - 31 - 9.87% - (10.91%)
BC - 37 - 11.78% - (13.28%)
QC - 75 - 23.89% - (23.18%)
ON - 108 - 34.39% - (38.73%)
Total - 314 seats


And just for fun the only way to get true repbypop

ON-325
QC-195
BC-112
AB-92
MB-30
SK-26
NS-23
NB-19
NL-13
PE-4
NT-1
YK-1
NU-1
Total - 842

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The current formula gives 279 seats to the provinces to divvy up, but special clauses mean that 7 provinces always end up with more than their "fair share". The formula proposed a while ago, would have seen Quebec's 75 seats determine the electorate, and hence, each province (save the 6 smaller ones) would have had seats equal in size to each of Quebec's seats. The "new" formula may be that, plus a clause that allows Quebec to be bumped up to it's proportional share of seats by population.

The 63 seats in the smaller provinces remain, to put it as simply as possible, because provinces are not allowed to lose seats under the constitution.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1071825--harper-to-give-ontario-13-more-federal-seats?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

SP - 63 - 18.86% - (13.89%)
AB - 34 - 10.18% - (10.91%)
BC - 41 - 12.28% - (13.28%)
QC - 77 - 23.05% - (23.18%)
ON - 119 - 35.63% - (38.73%)
Total - 334 seats

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Somehow, Harper has managed to screw Ontario. While the other provinces get within 2 seats of their former expected totals, Ontario is down by 5.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wouldn't the divisor need to be 305? Also, it does not work with Quebec at 75?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Krago is 100% correct. I ran the numbers with 305 as the factor and I used. Using the current formula I get...

ON - 119
QC - 71
BC - 41
AB - 34
MB - 11
SK - 9
NS - 8
NB - 7
NL - 5
PE - 1

Adding the Senatoral clause

ON - 119
QC - 71
BC - 41
AB - 34
MB - 11
SK - 9
NS - 10
NB - 10
NL - 6
PE - 4

And the Grandfather clause

ON - 119
QC - 75
BC - 41
AB - 34
MB - 14
SK - 14
NS - 11
NB - 10
NL - 6
PE - 4

And this seemingly new Quebec population clause

ON - 119
QC - 77
BC - 41
AB - 34
MB - 14
SK - 14
NS - 11
NB - 10
NL - 6
PE - 4

And we get the exact same results. I used this http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo02a-eng.htm as the basis for my data

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

So, instead of trying to make things fairer and more proportional to actual population, Harper has added another damn clause ?

The Senatorial Clause is in the Constitution, and would require the agreement of every province to eliminate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

All of this discussion is misleading. We've known for years Harper will be increasing seats. None of this is surprising. The only surprising thing is that he's sticking with the old Formula.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Crossposted from the Blog I post on.




I've taken a close look at the proposed numbers in Harper's new plan for seat redistribution.

This is a difficult to understand issue, so I will begin by explaining the history a little bit. Canada has had a number of different formulas to distribute seats across the land.

From 1867 to 1915, we used a "Quebec" based formula. Quebec was guaranteed 65 seats. That number was then divided by Quebec's population, and the size of the electorate in each Quebec riding was thus determined. Each province would then be given seats so that their ridings would be equal in size to that of Quebec. An additional formula made it difficult for provinces to lose seats, though possible.

From 1915 to 1946, the formula we used was nearly identical, except that no province could ever have fewer seats than Senators. The result of this was to raise PEI back up to 4 seats (from the 3 it held, mathematically, for a short time) but this clause, the Senatorial clause, was added to the Constitution, where it remains to this day.

In 1946 the formula was amended to it's first non-Quebec based formula. Canada's provinces were assigned 254 seats (with 1 extra for the Yukon) and these 254 seats were then assigned to each province based on it's fair share of the population. Provinces could now lose seats, excepting the Senatorial clause, and this thus quickly became the new concern. In 1951 a new clause was added forbidding provinces can losing more than 15% of it's seats at any one time.

Between 1974 and 1985 we went back to a Quebec based formula, this time with Quebec at 75 seats. This formula gave different calculations based on the size of provinces, and needless to say, was quite unwieldy. It was used once, in 1976, and never again. This adjustment is important however, as the number of seats assigned in 1976 became the basis for the "Grandfather Clause", which states no province can have fewer seats than they were assigned under this 1974 formula.

The formula in use since 1985 is what we have been debating replacing. This formula gives 279 seats to the provinces (and 3 extra set aside for the Territories) and then gives the provinces it's fair share based on that. The Senatorial clause is then added, which at this time gives extra seats to PEI, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, and then the Grandfather clause is activated which gives extra seats to Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec.

The current formula ends up being harmful to BC, Alberta, and Ontario. As more and more seats are added due to clauses, there is less and less room for these provinces to grow. This is the basis for the need for change.

The old formula, since it is a mathematical formula, is easy to calculate. Using it for the coming changes, we get 108 seats for Ontario, 37 for BC, 31 for Alberta, and the same 138 for the other provinces combined. Harper proposed a change, that would allow Provinces smaller than Quebec to have riding sizes equal to that within Quebec. This would have raised Alberta to 35 and BC to 41 but kept Ontario at 108. Needless to say, Ontario was not very happy with this, and protested. Harper then responded by allowing all provinces to have equal population-per-riding to Quebec, which raised Ontario to 124

The problem is this huge increase suddenly put Quebec at a disadvantage. Thanks to the "Clauses" Quebec suddenly found itself entitled to fewer seats than it's population would otherwise allow. This is where the debate stood a week ago.

Yesterday, Harper announced new seat counts. 119 for Ontario, 41 for BC, 34 for Alberta, 77 for Quebec, and an unchanged 63 for the smaller provinces. Acting on a tip from an Internet user known to me only as "Krago" I was able to figure out the formula behind this.

What Harper is using is the old 1985 formula with only two changes. First, the number of seats the provinces are entitled to goes up from 279 to 305. 305, plus three for the Territories, is our current seat number; but due to over-representation of the smaller provinces, this new number gives the larger provinces many more seats. Secondly, there appears to be a new "Quebec Clause" that entitles Quebec to a number of seats equal to it's share of the population. If you add these two together, you get the exact results reported in the media.

At the risk of having a post that is a bit TL;DR, I hope that this clears things up.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

ON - 119
QC - 78
BC - 41
AB - 34
MB - 14
SK - 14
NS - 11
NB - 10
NL - 7
PE - 4
NT - 1
YK - 1
NU - 1