Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've only had two chances to vote provincially in Ontario, and in 2007, not only was I a federal Conservative at the time, but John Tory had committed to funding 50% of public transit.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.

The NDP will have 30% of the vote on e-day.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How many polls have come out, where the full period was post-debate?

I'm expecting the NDP to rise 10 points.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My e-day projection is something like:

PC - 34%
Lib - 31%
NDP - 30%
Grn - 5%

With some room for fuzzyness. IE as bad as

PC - 37%
Lib - 31%
NDP - 27%
Grn - 5%

to as good as

NDP - 33%
PC - 32%
Lib - 31%
Grn - 5%


All those options result in a "very" strong Liberal minority, with the only variable being on the word "very"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

wtf is a southall

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Peel (Mississauga and Brampton) has a looooot of south asians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brampton
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississauga#Demographics

"Brampton has 510,000 people. Brampton has the largest concentration of South Asians in Canada, making up 36% of Brampton's population"

Mississauga:
"South Asian   136,750   21.6"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough,_Ontario
"South Asian residents make up 22.0% of the population"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also it turns out Southall is a fictional place not a municipality. It's an arbitrary neighbourhood. Places like Malton or Malvern are very very south asian. The main mall in Malton has more Hindi on their signs than it has English.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malton,_Ontario

also this

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

From http://www.punditsguide.ca


Bramlea
39.58% south asian

Miss BrSou
27.99% South Asian

Markham U
39.04% chinese
25.73% South Asian

Oak R Mark
22.11% Chinese

Richmond Hill
23.55% Chinese

Thornhill
36.63% Jewish

Scar SW
15.25% South Asian

Trinity Spa
17.63% Chinese

Egl Law
23.18% Jewish

Willowdale
31.19% Chinese

York Centre
24.36% Jewish

York West
19.03% Black
18.47% South Asian

Scar RR
31.12% Chinese
29.92% South Asian

Scar C
21.33% South Asian

Scar Guild
28.64% South Asian

Scar Agin
45.53% Chinese

York S Wstn
19.63% Black

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Progressive Conservatives - 34
Liberals - 32
New Democrats - 29
Greens - 5

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/111011ENG.pdf


Of course, I have no sense of whether or not Leger is a good pollster.

Why are you quoting my projection from earlier oh that's a new poll from reliable firm leger

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time Nice to fall across.

He also dismesses many of his criticisms when people make them via comments.

When the elections is over, I'm going to advertise how much better I did. Maybe the media will take notice and not feed him so much.

Don't count on it. I know from experience. Even your "friends" will doubt you.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1063024--hudak-worried-mcguinty-and-horwath-will-reach-deal-to-govern?bn=1

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, the pit bull genocide. (the canine equivelant of a genocide)

Genocide =/= ethnic cleansing.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

There will be no victory.

Dalton - I hate public transit and cities - McGunity will win another majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It's smelling more and more like a Liberal Majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Projection

LIB 42-58
PC 28-41
NDP 22-27

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP is under-performing their federal numbers, but so is the largest party. Result = more NDP seats on less NDP votes.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anyone care to edit this to fit the provincial ridings?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, my projection

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Teddy, here you go:



Bigger version in the gallery (Election Maps - International). There are some I've done also that show the difference between the federal and provincial results, but they're not especially useful because they just show what we already know. There's also a blank one in the blank maps gallery.

I meant my map, with the insets and numbers and names, but ok.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If you still think Hudak is going to win, you are crazy. Hudak is not going to win, so cheer up!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Today's OLP is the "Big Blue Machine" whereas today's PCO is the OLP of yesteryear.

The NDP, of course, is still the NDP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Here it is folks,

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-election-2011-prediction-final.html

A lot of anticipation as my blog got over 1000 views yesterday (very surprised)

I went from 21 unique views on a regular day 70 or so during the election, to 35,000 on e-day. Expect something similar.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Did you mistake federal and provincial numbers?