2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase. (user search)
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  2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase. (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.  (Read 117599 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #125 on: October 30, 2011, 08:47:27 PM »
We need to make it so whenever we win 170 seats, the NDP and Tories each win 80.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #126 on: November 04, 2011, 08:57:14 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/story/2011/11/04/sk-saskparty-has-big-lead-poll-says-1110.html

My calculations say this would give the NDP 4 seats, and 3 of them are "iffy"


I feel bad for the SKP candidate here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regina_Elphinstone-Centre
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #127 on: November 04, 2011, 09:22:02 PM »
Projection
RED = NDP
PURPLE = TOSS UP
BLUE = SASK P
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #128 on: November 07, 2011, 10:20:20 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2011, 10:24:47 AM by Teddy (SoFE) »
There is a chance the NDP won't win a single seat but that is a very small chance. The NDP needs 2 for Status, and I'm certain they'll get those 2; an in fact the NDP will probably take at least 4, but the more you push it beyond that, the less certain I become.

My projection for the NDP

Target - 6
Very Likely - between 5 and 8
Likely - btwn 4 - 11
Unlikely - 2-14
Slim - 0-19
No way - anything else

I'm also projecting that if the NDP takes less than 1/3rd of the vote, that the Greens will do better than expected, and they will do more better [sic] the worser [sic] the NDP does - to the point that if the NDP ends up with 0 seats, that this event (the NDP with 0 seats) is so unlikely (in terms of odds) that the Greens might end up with a seat (the odds of a 58 seat SKP vs 57SKP-1GPS) etc. If that makes any sense.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #129 on: November 07, 2011, 03:01:50 PM »
Colbert, you and I should trade excel files. Here's a pic from mine:
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #130 on: November 07, 2011, 06:58:08 PM »
either an hour or 2 hours... I should probably find out for sure (and edit the answer in)
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #131 on: November 07, 2011, 08:52:38 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2129372132 livestream
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #132 on: November 07, 2011, 09:00:39 PM »
OMG its starting
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #133 on: November 07, 2011, 09:04:41 PM »
SKP Election HQ is bathed in Green, which is their "colour", as is the SKP Leader's election HQ. I've never seen two of the three live spots be from the same party. The NDP HQ meanwhile is empty. I can see about 40 empty chairs and about 6 people who are non-media
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #134 on: November 07, 2011, 09:09:00 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/ mapsup
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #135 on: November 07, 2011, 09:10:00 PM »
Student Vote
57 seats
SKP 43 - 54%
NDP 14 - 28%
Grn - 0 - 15%
Again, student vote, not results

Also, SKP/SP on the board at 1, and they are using a nice dark green.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #136 on: November 07, 2011, 09:12:10 PM »
Just from these very very early votes, I'd say the NDP will end up with 6-14 seats
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #137 on: November 07, 2011, 09:13:38 PM »
SP 5
NDP 1

The NDP's seat is one of the far northern ones.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #138 on: November 07, 2011, 09:19:10 PM »
SP 24
NDP 8

Even the NDP's commentor is saying the battle is in the cities.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #139 on: November 07, 2011, 09:24:57 PM »
SP 37
NDP 9

CBC has officially declared that they are "leaning towards" making the call for a SP majority.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #140 on: November 07, 2011, 09:25:30 PM »
There they go. CBC makes the call 25 minutes in.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #141 on: November 07, 2011, 09:28:24 PM »
68.3% SP
27.8% NDP
3.1% Grn

Miles: dunno, but I do know it's only the second time the Greens have beat a supposedly "major" party (PEI NDP) though they've beat the BC Tories a number of times too.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #142 on: November 07, 2011, 09:29:39 PM »
NDP leader trailing in his own riding, 2 of 58 polls,


SP also leading in that one regina seat that I said NDP would win for sure.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #143 on: November 07, 2011, 09:30:29 PM »
GREENS ON THE BOARD
GREENS ON THE BOARD
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #144 on: November 07, 2011, 09:31:53 PM »
false alarm: clearly an error http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/#/33
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #145 on: November 07, 2011, 09:34:46 PM »
52S
6N
all ridings on the board.

Pop Vote:
68%S
28%N
3%G
0.35%L
0.30%PC
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #146 on: November 07, 2011, 09:38:19 PM »
At this time, the NDP has 1 seat in Regina, 1 in Saskatoon, and 1 in rural Moose Jaw, and 2 in the far North.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #147 on: November 07, 2011, 09:46:16 PM »
SP at over 55% in all areas of the province, 56% in regina, 57% in toon, more in rural.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #148 on: November 07, 2011, 09:47:34 PM »
Ridings I'm following (IE not huge SP wins)
Cumberland
Athabasca
Moose Jaw Wakamow
Regina Rosemont
Saskatoon Massey Place
Cut Knife-Turtleford
Prince Albert Northcote
Regina Walsh Acres
Regina Lakeview
Regina South
Regina Elphinstone-Centre
Saskatoon Sutherland
Saskatoon Nutana
Saskatoon Riversdale
Saskatoon Fairview
Saskatoon Centre
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #149 on: November 07, 2011, 09:55:09 PM »
Ridings I'm following (IE not huge SP wins)
Cumberland
Athabasca
Moose Jaw Wakamow
Regina Rosemont
Saskatoon Massey Place
Prince Albert Northcote
Regina Walsh Acres
Regina Lakeview
Regina South
Regina Elphinstone-Centre
Saskatoon Sutherland
Saskatoon Nutana
Saskatoon Riversdale
Saskatoon Fairview
Saskatoon Centre
Saskatoon Meewasin
(this list is final, ridings will only be removed, not added)
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