New Zealand 2011 (user search)
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Author Topic: New Zealand 2011  (Read 61991 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« on: August 30, 2011, 05:53:18 PM »
Wow, I've not seen anything so crazy since the last election in Newfoundland. 57%? wow.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2011, 02:12:49 AM »
Using the calculator I get:

Nat - 70
Lab - 32
Grn - 14
Mao - 5
Man - 1
ACT - 1

A lot depends on individual seats.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2011, 08:16:30 PM »
What date is the election?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2011, 08:19:42 PM »
Most Recent Poll
Nat - 49.5%
Lab - 28.7%
Green - 12.6%
no other parties meeting the threshold.

Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2011, 09:22:56 PM »
They are slowly moving towards doing "poll of poll"s
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2011, 08:34:53 AM »
Parallel PR is the best kind IMO
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2011, 07:25:27 PM »
Most recent poll, nov 13
Nat - 53.3%
Lab - 29.9%
Grn - 10.2%
--------------threshold
NZF - 2.4%
Maori - 1.4%
Mana - 1.0%
ACT - 0.7%

Maori has 58 where Mana has 42, which is significant, as this could mean tight races in the Maori seats. Past polling does not help as within this month alone, Maori has gone from a high of 2.1 to a low of 0.5, so we really don't know where the parties stand exactly.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2011, 10:36:51 PM »
Nov 17th poll
Nat - 50.2%
Lab - 27.4%
Grn - 13.0%
----------
NZF - 3.5%
ACT - 1.8%
Maori - 1.3%
Con - 1.1%
Mana - 1.0%
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2011, 11:42:34 PM »
Canterbury Assembly?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2011, 12:52:41 AM »
Um. IC. Why not just divide the Islands?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2011, 01:02:10 AM »
Yeabut I'd be interested to see the vote for different regions of NZ not just one, like Auckland.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2011, 09:27:27 AM »
Poll averaging since the Key-Banks convo

51.03%   Nat
26.75%   Lab
12.90%   Grn
1.65%   ACT
1.65%   Maori
3.40%   NZ1st
0.93%   Mana
0.78%   Cons

My projection is thus
68 - Nat
35 - Lab
17 - Grn
7 - Various Maori in an Overhang
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2011, 06:07:01 PM »
Polls updated but projection unchanged.

51.62% - NAT - 68
26.60% - LAB - 35
12.72% - GRN - 17
3.52% - NZ1st
1.54% - Maori - 5?
1.46% - ACT
0.96% - Mana - 2?
0.62% - Cons
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2011, 02:20:03 AM »
National wont need one! Not at this rate. Why would the party run there if they didn't want to win anyway?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2011, 03:14:23 AM »
Wow, over here parties do that sort of thing semi-often, and voters sometimes do or do not complain (IE Andrew Arthur, Elizabeth May) depending on how close the party is to the candidate.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2011, 05:16:47 AM »
It's 5:12am right here right now. At 6:00am, here today on Thursday, it will begin being Friday, at midnight, in NZ. 3pm Thursday here would be 9am on Friday there.

At 9am on Saturday polls open. That'd make it 3pm Friday here. Polls close 10 hours later, or, 1am Saturday Morning.

So if my time is right... the NZ election starts
LA, Vancouver: 10pm friday night
Toronto, NYC: 1am saturday morning
London, Dublin: 6am
Paris, Berlin: 7am
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2011, 05:24:45 AM »
Another projection update

51.20%   NAT   68
26.70%   LAB   35
12.42%   GRN   17
3.54%   NZ1st   
1.61%   Maori   5
1.41%   ACT   
0.99%   Mana   2
1.14%   Cons   
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2011, 01:46:52 PM »
50 is about all they need for a very narrow majority. Plus the Maori is seemingly willing to work with National and vice versa.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2011, 02:34:06 PM »
True... but remember the overhang. I'd peg it closer to 49
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2011, 03:19:21 AM »
2 things - first, which website am I most likely to find a live feed from?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2011, 03:26:44 AM »
Second. My official projections:

Without NZ1st

NAT 68 (majority)
Lab 35
Grn 17
VM 7


and With

Nat 65 (majority)
Lab 33
Grn 16
NZ1st 6
VM 7




VM = Various Maori = Maori Party and Mana Party combined
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2011, 04:06:29 AM »
The more Maori seats Labour can take the better for National.

I'm thus updating my projection with this new information.

Second. My official projections:

Without NZ1st

NAT 68 (majority)
Lab 35
Grn 17
VM 3


and With

Nat 65 (majority)
Lab 33
Grn 16
NZ1st 6
VM 3
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2011, 04:11:47 AM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on November 25, 2011, 03:19:21 AM
2 things - first, which website am I most likely to find a live feed from?
I may have found the answer
http://tvnz.co.nz/election-2011
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #23 on: November 25, 2011, 05:22:04 PM »
I think everyone here is excited by voting
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2011, 01:15:55 AM »
http://tvnz.co.nz/election-2011
3.1% counted
Nat 65
Lab 33
Grn 12
NZF 8
MRI 3
UNF 1
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