2008 Senate Elections???

[ian]

After 2006, what will happen in the Senate?
Here are the incumbents:

Sessions (AL) - zzzzzzzzz
Stevens (AK) - Retiring?
Pryor (AR) - Democrat in a red state.  Possible overthrow of one-term Senator?
Allard (CO) - Retiring?  Udall's challenging him if he does or doesn't.
Biden (DE) - Retiring?
Chambliss (GA) - Will Cox run?  Will Cleland re-run?
Craig (ID) - zzzzzzzzzz
Durbin (IL) - zzzzzzzzzzzz
Harkin (IA) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Roberts (KS) - zzzzzzzzzzz
McConnell (KY) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Landrieu (LA) - Katrina could end Mary's career?
Collins (ME) - Said she would retire; indicates otherwise.
Kerry (MA) - Retire to run for presidency?
Levin (MI) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Coleman (MN) - Low approval ratings.  One-term Senator.
Cochran (MS) - Retiring?
Baucus (MT) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Hagel (NE) - Retire to run for presidency?
Sununu (NH) - Strong Conservative in a blue state.  Lynch could possibly run; so could Shaheen (again)
Lautenberg (NJ) - Low approval ratings.
Domenici (NM) - Retire?
Dole (NC) - Retire to run for Governor?
Inhofe (OK) - Retire?
Smith (OR) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Reed (RI) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Graham (SC) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Johnson (SD) - Could face Governor Rounds, one-term Senator.
Alexander (TN)- Retiring?
Cornyn (TX) - Wikipedia thinks he could be challenged.  I somehow doubt it, especially considering the incompetence of the Texas Democratic Party.
Warner (VA) - Retiring?
Rockefeller (WV) - Retiring?
Enzi (WY) - zzzzzzzzzzz

[ian]

Stevens (AK) - Unless Knowles passes up the governorship, this seat stays in the hands of a Republican, Stevens or not.
Pryor (AR) - Keeps it.
Allard (CO) - Udall gets it if Allard gives it up; otherwise a tossup
Biden (DE) - Doesn't retire
Chambliss (GA) - If Cleland runs again, we can get this seat back with a fight.
Landrieu (LA) - It'll be close.  I hope Mary keeps her seat, but she might not.
Collins (ME) - Won't retire.  Easy run.
Kerry (MA) - Doesn't retire.
Coleman (MN) - With a good candidate, we can get this one back.
Cochran (MS) - If he does, in fact, retire, which he may or may not, Taylor can win this for us.
Hagel (NE) - Doesn't retire
Sununu (NH) - Close race with a good opponent, but he'll win in the end.  His approvals are too high for him not to.
Lautenberg (NJ) - If Kean loses against Corzine and runs again two years later, it's a guaranteed win for him.
Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?
Dole (NC) - Retires to run for Governor.  Possibly Edwards runs again?  Or Bowles?
Inhofe (OK) - No clue.
Johnson (SD) - If against Governor Rounds, it'll be close.  If not, fuggedaboutit.
Alexander (TN)- Retires.  Another Republican wins in his place.
Cornyn (TX) - Wins in a landslide against Chris Bell and Kinky Freidman.
Warner (VA) - Doesn't retire, unless he runs for the presidency.
Rockefeller (WV) - Retires.  Capito replaces him.

Best Case Scenario (D) - D+6.  R+3 (Dem net gain of 3)
Best Case Scenario (R) - R+4.  D+0 (Repub net gain of 4)

[ian]

Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?

Sure.

It is not 100% clear what Domenici will do. A few years ago it looked like he was going to retire for health reasons, but he's feeling better now and it now looks like he'll run again. But we'll have to see, won't we?

This race is easily the most bipolar Senate race for 2008. If Domenici runs, it will be extremely uncompetitive. If Domenici retires, it will be extremely competitive. No middle ground here.

As for why that is...Domenici is very popular in NM - not too far right, and good at bringing in federal tax dollars from Connecticut. He won ultra-Democratic Rio Arriba County back in 2002, after all. Now balance that with the fact that NM is highly competitive as a state, with pools of voters from all four political quadrants. And both parties have good benches to draw on for this race.

Does this help, ian?

Yes, thank you, WMS! 
Who do you think would run in both parties if Domenici were to retire?

[ian]

LOL, Ian, I've finally realized you don't know one damn thing about Arkansas politics.

Well, in his most recent post in this topic, he did mention that he thought Pryor would be reelected. I agree that his first post about the Arkansas race was off-base; Arkansas is still very much Democratic at a state level, even if it favors Republicans for President. It would also be very willing to vote for a moderate Southern Democrat for President.

Unless you were saying that was wrong.

Well, it was that and I remember a few other posts by him in the past about Arkansas politics where I was thinking "What the hell?"

Okay...  In my first post, I was just giving possible problems for all the incumbents.  In my second post, I gave my personal opinion about what was going to happen in 2008.  I have no doubt that Pryor will be re-elected, since Republicans don't really have anyone to run against him (except for Asa, and that's only if he loses--Pryor would still win anyway--and Huckabee, but he has his eye on bigger things, wouldn't you say?).  If you could please dig up these "what the hell?" comments I have made about Arkansas politics, I would love to see them so that I may defend myself.  Thank you.

[ian]

BUMP for Preston's response.