Tennessee

[ian]

8 or 9 pts would be my guess - some on this board keep listing Tennessee, Ark, and Louisiana as possible Kerry states.  Why I have no idea.

Arkansas will go Kerry as long as he picks a Southern, non-woman running mate.  And the chances of this are likely.

[ian]

I also stated that there have been more documented racial tensions in the South than the North...  to which many people from the South AGREED with me...  And clearly a country in CT or MA would not try to ban gays...  

I think racism was one factor that caused "The Great Migration."  They weren't moving to Florida...

And CT Guy is right.  People in the part of Arkansas where I reside are, I'm willing to say, about 50% racist.  Dem. nominee for the Lt. Gov., Ron Sheffield ran against a pretty well-known Republican, Winn Rockefeller and lost by a heck of a lot, something like 30%.  I personally think that it was because he was an African-American.

[ian]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

You need to understand that I live in Arkansas & I understand the political sentiment of the majority of voters in this state (or at least in my area).  People are so disappointed by the job that Bush is doing.  And AR is typically a liberal state anyway.  We will vote Kerry come November.

[ian]

I believe the last time a lib form Massachusetts picked a Southern, non-woman running mate he got punked in Arkansas by 14 points.

Very good point.  I do believe that the reason that Dukakis got screwed (especially in AR) was because he was so liberal.  Kerry is running for the presidency in more liberal of times & he really isn't quite as liberal as people (Fox News) like to suggest.

[ian]

Arkansas is a liberal state (not overwhelmingly, mind you, but) a recent poll I have seen about two months ago stated that we are about 5 percent more liberal than conservative.

[ian]

ian, what makes Arkansas stand out over all the conservative states, generally, which surround it? Is it something about the state's unique history or heritage?

I'm actually unsure.  I have absolutely no clue.  I know that a lot of the old hicks out in the boondocks are under the impression that they are Democrats, even though every opinion that they have is conservative.